Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Perhaps, misled by the Chinese tech rally due to the change in stance from the Chinese Government, Sea's shares rose by 33% compared to the broader market's 8.3%.</li>
<li>With fundamentals deteriorating and the Federal Reserve signalling an aggressive rate hike outlook, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>’s 33% move seems unwarranted.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, the downside potential is quite significant as Sea trades at a significant FY+2 EV/Sales premium to regional peers whose cyclical bottoms are unknown.</li>
</ul>


Perhaps, misled by the Chinese tech rally due to the change in stance from the Chinese Government, Sea's shares rose by 33% compared to the broader market's 8.3%.
With fundamentals deteriorating and the Federal Reserve signalling an aggressive rate hike outlook, Sea Ltd (SE US)’s 33% move seems unwarranted.
Meanwhile, the downside potential is quite significant as Sea trades at a significant FY+2 EV/Sales premium to regional peers whose cyclical bottoms are unknown.


Sea Ltd.'s Money Machine Is Broken, Downside Is Not Fully Priced-In

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. </li>
<li>GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company's past performance.</li>
</ul>


GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. 
GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we talk about the company's past performance.


GoTo IPO - Past Performance Hasn't All Been Great

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$488bn and has been falling mainly as a result of a falling market. Short interest has increased substantially from end January.</li>
<li>From 31 January to 4 March, the largest shorts have been built on Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group Ltd, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi Solar.</li>
<li>Over the same period, shorts have covered on COSCO Shipping Holdings, HKEX, Longfor Properties, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and HSBC Holdings.</li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$488bn and has been falling mainly as a result of a falling market. Short interest has increased substantially from end January.
From 31 January to 4 March, the largest shorts have been built on Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group Ltd, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi Solar.
Over the same period, shorts have covered on COSCO Shipping Holdings, HKEX, Longfor Properties, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and HSBC Holdings.


Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?

<ul>
<li>On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent.</li>
<li>While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the likely impact of Prosus' shareholding on passive flows at the time of settlement.</li>
</ul>


On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21 shares of Tencent.
While Tencent went ex-div on 20th Jan 2022, the actual settlement of the distribution is expected to happen on or about 25th Mar 2022.
In this note, we talk about the likely impact of Prosus' shareholding on passive flows at the time of settlement.


JD.com Tencent Div Distribution - The US$10bn Overhang - Passives Might Have to Sell

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>JD.com (JD)’s revenue growth is a strong support for JD Logistics’ revenue.</li>
<li>JDL successfully acquired corporate clients and expanded warehouse network in 2021.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 40% and a target price of HK$27.</li>
</ul>


JD.com (JD)’s revenue growth is a strong support for JD Logistics’ revenue.
JDL successfully acquired corporate clients and expanded warehouse network in 2021.
We believe the stock has an upside of 40% and a target price of HK$27.


JD Logistics (2618 HK): Shrinking Operating Loss in 2H21 and Exclusive Revenue Support

China

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (9618 HK)

Sea Ltd.'s Money Machine Is Broken, Downside Is Not Fully Priced-In

With fundamentals deteriorating and the Fed signalling an aggressive rate hike outlook, Sea’s 33% move seems unwarranted. The downside potential is...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

GoTo IPO - Past Performance Hasn't All Been Great

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we look at the...

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?

From 31 Jan to 4 March, most shorted stocks are Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi...

Brian Freitas

JD.com Tencent Div Distribution - The US$10bn Overhang - Passives Might Have to Sell

On 23rd Dec, Tencent declared a dividend in the form of distribution in specie of 457.326m shares of JD.com, i.e. 1 share of JD.com for every 21...

Sumeet Singh

JD Logistics (2618 HK): Shrinking Operating Loss in 2H21 and Exclusive Revenue Support

JD.com (JD) is a strong support for JD Logistics’ revenue. JD Logistics successfully acquired its corporate clients and expanded its warehouse...

Ming Lu

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