Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Advance GDP estimates for 2Q16 showed the Singapore economy remaining moribund, growing by 2.2% y/y in 2Q16, up marginally from 2.1% in 1Q16. Manufacturing reversed a six-month decline while services slowed markedly – a worrying sign.</li><li>Two important segments of the services sector, namely, wholesale &amp; retail trade and financial services, constituting about 28% of the economy in 2015, are manifestly weaker. Particularly, wholesale trade has been dented by the decline seen in NORX; this could threaten Singapore raison d’etre as an entrepot hub.</li><li>Policy support is imperative going forward. Fiscal policy will likely be intensified to prop up cyclical growth given that monetary policy looks to be at its limits. Finally, structural efforts by the CFE to nurture new growth drivers to power the next phase of economic development for Singapore remain critical to the country’s long-term success.</li></ul>

Advance GDP estimates for 2Q16 showed the Singapore economy remaining moribund, growing by 2.2% y/y in 2Q16, up marginally from 2.1% in 1Q16. Manufacturing reversed a six-month decline while services slowed markedly – a worrying sign.Two important segments of the services sector, namely, wholesale &amp; retail trade and financial services, constituting about 28% of the economy in 2015, are manifestly weaker. Particularly, wholesale trade has been dented by the decline seen in NORX; this could threaten Singapore raison d’etre as an entrepot hub.Policy support is imperative going forward. Fiscal policy will likely be intensified to prop up cyclical growth given that monetary policy looks to be at its limits. Finally, structural efforts by the CFE to nurture new growth drivers to power the next phase of economic development for Singapore remain critical to the country’s long-term success.

Singapore: Economy Is Moribund as Services Also Stall

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
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Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Event-Driven

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Event-Driven

RRG StatArb Algorithm Identifies Panic Following BrexitOn July 12th, 2016 the RRG StatArb Algorithm identified a market inefficiency caused by the panic surrounding the turmoil that followed the Brexit. In this special insights report we detail the current trade recommended by the StatArb Algorithm to capitalize on this inefficiency.Trade specifics (securities and weightings) are detailed on the back page of the report.

RRG StatArb Algorithm Identifies Panic Following BrexitOn July 12th, 2016 the RRG StatArb Algorithm identified a market inefficiency caused by the panic surrounding the turmoil that followed the Brexit. In this special insights report we detail the current trade recommended by the StatArb Algorithm to capitalize on this inefficiency.Trade specifics (securities and weightings) are detailed on the back page of the report.

Panic Surrounding Brexit Causes Trading Opportunity in Emerging Markets

Corporate Credit Analyst

Alan Greene

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the same time, on 30 June, the Korea Times carried a headline “Bedroom shock: Korea's sexless rate ranked world's second”. The sovereign rating of its neighbour Japan has seen steady pressure for the last five years driven in part by its demographic profile. Korea's demographic profile is likely to deteriorate more rapidly than Japan's and we should therefore expect a similar debt induced stall in growth. The banking system is under pressure and this could soon translate into pressure on Korea's credit ratings.

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

<ul><li>There are nascent signs that some sectors are turning around. Industrial production has reversed its decline, real incomes have risen, tourists have returned while SMEs are more confident. However, these are but tentative signs; a sustained recovery is required.</li><li>But downside risks remain salient: Headline inflation has been weak and could dip further into negative territory as disinflationary trends take hold. Firms in Singapore are also neglecting to build new capacity while non-oil re-exports have faltered.</li><li>Global demand could yet stage a strong recovery year, driving growth in Singapore. However, global capital spending – key to Singapore’s manufactured exports – remains lacklustre due to the uncertainty swirling in the global economy. Retail sales are not rising even with higher real incomes while businesses are grappling with various headwinds.</li><li>Crucially, Singapore needs to uncover new growth engines in order to create new industries for enduring growth and relevance.</li></ul>

There are nascent signs that some sectors are turning around. Industrial production has reversed its decline, real incomes have risen, tourists have returned while SMEs are more confident. However, these are but tentative signs; a sustained recovery is required.But downside risks remain salient: Headline inflation has been weak and could dip further into negative territory as disinflationary trends take hold. Firms in Singapore are also neglecting to build new capacity while non-oil re-exports have faltered.Global demand could yet stage a strong recovery year, driving growth in Singapore. However, global capital spending – key to Singapore’s manufactured exports – remains lacklustre due to the uncertainty swirling in the global economy. Retail sales are not rising even with higher real incomes while businesses are grappling with various headwinds.Crucially, Singapore needs to uncover new growth engines in order to create new industries for enduring growth and relevance.

Singapore: Near-Term Turnaround for the Economy?

<ul><li>The global environment appears more and more threatening to Asian economies, with rising risks of currency market volatility in Asia. In this context, we see the credibility of central banks and how appropriately valued their currencies as crucial determinants of resilience in the face of potential shocks.</li><li>We examined inflation differentials to identify which currencies could be under threat and which would be relatively more robust.</li></ul>

The global environment appears more and more threatening to Asian economies, with rising risks of currency market volatility in Asia. In this context, we see the credibility of central banks and how appropriately valued their currencies as crucial determinants of resilience in the face of potential shocks.We examined inflation differentials to identify which currencies could be under threat and which would be relatively more robust.

Asian Currencies: What Inflation Differentials Show

United States

iShares MSCI Singapore ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Singaporean market, as measured by the MSCI Singapore 25/50 Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique. SGX Trading Name: IS MSCI SIN 100US$

iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS US)

Singapore: Economy Is Moribund as Services Also Stall

Advance GDP estimates for 2Q16 showed the Singapore economy remaining moribund, growing by 2.2% y/y in 2Q16, up marginally from 2.1% in 1Q16....

Jason Tan

Panic Surrounding Brexit Causes Trading Opportunity in Emerging Markets

RRG StatArb Algorithm Identifies Panic Following BrexitOn July 12th, 2016 the RRG StatArb Algorithm identified a market inefficiency caused by the...

David Riedel

Can "sexless" Korea Beat the Demographic Cliff and Maintain Its Credit Rating?

Recently announced industrial output figures for June suggest that Korea may be able to trade its way towards higher growth rates. However, at the...

Alan Greene

Singapore: Near-Term Turnaround for the Economy?

There are nascent signs that some sectors are turning around. Industrial production has reversed its decline, real incomes have risen, tourists...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asian Currencies: What Inflation Differentials Show

The global environment appears more and more threatening to Asian economies, with rising risks of currency market volatility in Asia. In this...

Manu Bhaskaran