Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics weekly condensed </strong>Saturday 27 February 2016</p><div>*Condensed repport due to travel this weekend</div><div><strong>Risk on caps</strong></div><div><strong>Oil, US and Europe equity webcast- To view click on this link or paste:</strong></div><div>http://www.screencast.com/t/gf21FaJdM</div><p>8:03 min.</p><div>We are watching the bull breakout attempt in oil with interest as energy shares lack the same upside bias and the AUD appears to be chiseling out a key reversal above 0.72 while copper backed off of the key 2.14 barrier. A number of counter balance assets are not…</div>

Chartonics weekly condensed Saturday 27 February 2016*Condensed repport due to travel this weekendRisk on capsOil, US and Europe equity webcast- To view click on this link or paste:http://www.screencast.com/t/gf21FaJdM8:03 min.We are watching the bull breakout attempt in oil with interest as energy shares lack the same upside bias and the AUD appears to be chiseling out a key reversal above 0.72 while copper backed off of the key 2.14 barrier. A number of counter balance assets are not…

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<strong>GDP contracted </strong>4% y/y in 4Q15, after rising 1.3% y/y in 3Q15. Investment growth was insufficient to offset weak consumer spending and trade. <strong>Overall GDP expanded</strong> 0.4% in 2015, a slight recovery from the 0% expansion in 2014.</li>
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<strong>Industrial activity fell </strong>6% m/m in Dec 15, a slight improvement from the 0.9% y/y fall in Nov 15. <strong>Index for services ticked up</strong> 0.1% y/y in Dec 15, down from the 1.5% y/y increase in Nov 15. <strong>Machinery orders fell</strong> 4.2% m/m in Dec 15, up from a decline of 14.4% m/m increase in…</li>
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GDP contracted 4% y/y in 4Q15, after rising 1.3% y/y in 3Q15. Investment growth was insufficient to offset weak consumer spending and trade. Overall GDP expanded 0.4% in 2015, a slight recovery from the 0% expansion in 2014.

Industrial activity fell 6% m/m in Dec 15, a slight improvement from the 0.9% y/y fall in Nov 15. Index for services ticked up 0.1% y/y in Dec 15, down from the 1.5% y/y increase in Nov 15. Machinery orders fell 4.2% m/m in Dec 15, up from a decline of 14.4% m/m increase in…


Japan: Economy Struggling to Find Solid Ground

iShares MSCI Japan ETF / Technical Analysis

<p>Nikkei hitting our sub 15,000 buy point with add level at 14,500. Our recovery trade objective is near 16,400. A Nikkei top is in place unless we can power back above 16,400 in a short amount of time.</p><div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1455234552030_40120">USD/JPY met our 112 target but still shows a bit more risk of one final low. Ideally we want to get the S&amp;P below 1,800 to align with a USD/JPY low. We point out that many of the weaker (leading) sectors in the US have already made new lows (financials and small caps for example).</div><div id="yui_3_16_0_1_1455234552030_40127">THB hit our 35.20…</div>

Nikkei hitting our sub 15,000 buy point with add level at 14,500. Our recovery trade objective is near 16,400. A Nikkei top is in place unless we can power back above 16,400 in a short amount of time.USD/JPY met our 112 target but still shows a bit more risk of one final low. Ideally we want to get the S&amp;P below 1,800 to align with a USD/JPY low. We point out that many of the weaker (leading) sectors in the US have already made new lows (financials and small caps for example).THB hit our 35.20…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>The USD/JPY has plunged below its previous lows since November 2014. The next major support is the levels preceding the Oct-2014 BoJ QQE phase two policy easing (USD/JPY around 110).  The fall comes despite the short term yield advantage for the USD/JPY rising to its widest margin in many years.  The key driver is higher global market uncertainty sharply reducing yield-seeking behavior.  The effectiveness of unconventional QE/negative rate policies appears to have sharply diminished over the last year.  We may even be witnessing the undesirable unintended consequences of prolonged global QE coming home to roost and dampening market confidence.  Nevertheless it is hard to see any other path for the BoJ and ECB, suggesting both may opt for more negative rates and play the intervention card if currencies strength persist.  We note that in the most recent bout of global market uncertainty this year, intensifying since the BoJ opted for negative rates on 29-Jan, JPY has not strengthened more than gold.</em></p>

The USD/JPY has plunged below its previous lows since November 2014. The next major support is the levels preceding the Oct-2014 BoJ QQE phase two policy easing (USD/JPY around 110).  The fall comes despite the short term yield advantage for the USD/JPY rising to its widest margin in many years.  The key driver is higher global market uncertainty sharply reducing yield-seeking behavior.  The effectiveness of unconventional QE/negative rate policies appears to have sharply diminished over the last year.  We may even be witnessing the undesirable unintended consequences of prolonged global QE coming home to roost and dampening market confidence.  Nevertheless it is hard to see any other path for the BoJ and ECB, suggesting both may opt for more negative rates and play the intervention card if currencies strength persist.  We note that in the most recent bout of global market uncertainty this year, intensifying since the BoJ opted for negative rates on 29-Jan, JPY has not strengthened more than gold.

AmpGFX - JPY Feeling the Unintended Consequences of QE

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

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<strong>S&amp;P decline on track as the risk off move lower gains traction. S&amp;P uptick resistance near 1,950+ is the zone to add to shorts with an ideal cap of 1,965</strong>. Financials and small caps are our sector short points of interest.</div><div>
<strong>US and European banks were touted as a good short lead trade during this decline</strong>. Remember our GS short back at 212. GS is a stock to watch for a lead relative turn as financials reach for a foothold in February.</div><div>
<strong>Europe has been the favored short trade over US equities and</strong>…</div>


S&amp;P decline on track as the risk off move lower gains traction. S&amp;P uptick resistance near 1,950+ is the zone to add to shorts with an ideal cap of 1,965. Financials and small caps are our sector short points of interest.
US and European banks were touted as a good short lead trade during this decline. Remember our GS short back at 212. GS is a stock to watch for a lead relative turn as financials reach for a foothold in February.
Europe has been the favored short trade over US equities and…

Japan

iShares MSCI Japan ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Japanese market, as measured by the MSCI Japan Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks in a variety of sectors using a market cap weighted "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ US)

Risk on Caps

Chartonics weekly condensed Saturday 27 February 2016*Condensed repport due to travel this weekendRisk on capsOil, US and Europe equity webcast- To...

Thomas Schroeder

Japan: Economy Struggling to Find Solid Ground

GDP contracted 4% y/y in 4Q15, after rising 1.3% y/y in 3Q15. Investment growth was insufficient to offset weak consumer spending and trade....

Jason Tan

Nikkei Buy Level

Nikkei hitting our sub 15,000 buy point with add level at 14,500. Our recovery trade objective is near 16,400. A Nikkei top is in place unless we...

Thomas Schroeder

AmpGFX - JPY Feeling the Unintended Consequences of QE

The USD/JPY has plunged below its previous lows since November 2014. The next major support is the levels preceding the Oct-2014 BoJ QQE phase two...

Greg Gibbs

S&P, Europe Shorts and Aussie Banks

S&P decline on track as the risk off move lower gains traction. S&P uptick resistance near 1,950+ is the zone to add to shorts with an...

Thomas Schroeder