Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<p>Part 2 of three parts examining the drivers of Asian growth looks at NICs which are Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.</p><p>Part 3 (to be posted tomorrow morning) will be on selected ASEAN economies - Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam.</p><p><strong>Table 2: NICs – Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore</strong></p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><h2><strong>Variable</strong></h2></td>
<td><h2><strong>Details</strong></h2></td>
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td>South Korea</td>
<td>Singapore</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Drags from 2015 negatives</td>
<td>Biggest drag from China – Taiwan’s largest trading partner</td>
<td>Exports have plummeted on the back of weak global economy</td>
<td>Mixed: Global headwinds are</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

Part 2 of three parts examining the drivers of Asian growth looks at NICs which are Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.Part 3 (to be posted tomorrow morning) will be on selected ASEAN economies - Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam.Table 2: NICs – Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore

Variable
Details
 
 


Taiwan
South Korea
Singapore


Drags from 2015 negatives
Biggest drag from China – Taiwan’s largest trading partner
Exports have plummeted on the back of weak global economy
Mixed: Global headwinds are

…

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.</p><p>This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.</p><p>The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.</p><p>This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force.</p><p> </p>

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force. 

<p>We believe that the following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth for the remainder of this year:</p><ul><li>
<strong>Receding drags from contractionary factors in 2015</strong>: Last year saw a confluence of negatives in many countries such as bad weather, low commodity prices and the initially negative effects of policy reforms that will be good for the long term. In many cases, these contractionary factors are diminishing in impact or reversing.</li></ul><ul><li>
<strong>Gathering recovery in global manufacturing:</strong>…</li></ul>

We believe that the following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth for the remainder of this year:
Receding drags from contractionary factors in 2015: Last year saw a confluence of negatives in many countries such as bad weather, low commodity prices and the initially negative effects of policy reforms that will be good for the long term. In many cases, these contractionary factors are diminishing in impact or reversing.
Gathering recovery in global manufacturing:…

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

<ul><li>The Indian economy has been resilient and set to pick up: Private consumption and activity indicators are gathering momentum, with more monetary stimulus being transmitted to the economy.</li><li>However, India's growth is unlikely to go beyond a modest acceleration because the expected reform dividend from a strong government is not evident. With big-ticket reforms stuck in the Upper House of Parliament, the economy is unlikely to fully exploit the benefits of its demographic dividend and resources.</li><li>Read more for our downside scenarios to India's growth.</li></ul>

The Indian economy has been resilient and set to pick up: Private consumption and activity indicators are gathering momentum, with more monetary stimulus being transmitted to the economy.However, India's growth is unlikely to go beyond a modest acceleration because the expected reform dividend from a strong government is not evident. With big-ticket reforms stuck in the Upper House of Parliament, the economy is unlikely to fully exploit the benefits of its demographic dividend and resources.Read more for our downside scenarios to India's growth.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Tuesday 22 March 2016 </p><div><strong>Asia FX action</strong></div><p>To view click on this link:  <strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> </strong>5:15 min.</p><p>We run through trade points in Asia FX.</p><div>
<strong>INR</strong> - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
<strong>KRW</strong> - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

Drivers of Asian Growth - Part 2

Part 2 of three parts examining the drivers of Asian growth looks at NICs which are Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore.Part 3 (to be posted tomorrow...

Jason Tan

Saudi: A New Hope?

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the...

Emad Mostaque

Drivers of Asian Growth - Part 1

We believe that the following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth for the remainder of this year: Receding drags...

Jason Tan

India Lacks a Magic Bullet

The Indian economy has been resilient and set to pick up: Private consumption and activity indicators are gathering momentum, with more monetary...

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder