Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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Consumption and government spending drove upbeat 3Q16 growth: India’s GDP rose 7.3% y/y in 3Q16, up from 7.1% in 2Q16. Private consumption and government spending were the major growth drivers. Private consumption gained 7.6% y/y in 3Q16, up from 6.7% in 2Q16. Government spending rose 15.2% in 3Q16, down from 18.8% in 2Q16.</li>
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But investment remained a weakness, shrinking 5.6% y/y in 3Q16, down from a decline of 3.1% in 2Q16, due to sharply dampened private investment.</li>
</ul> Assessment: De-monetisation…



Consumption and government spending drove upbeat 3Q16 growth: India’s GDP rose 7.3% y/y in 3Q16, up from 7.1% in 2Q16. Private consumption and government spending were the major growth drivers. Private consumption gained 7.6% y/y in 3Q16, up from 6.7% in 2Q16. Government spending rose 15.2% in 3Q16, down from 18.8% in 2Q16.

But investment remained a weakness, shrinking 5.6% y/y in 3Q16, down from a decline of 3.1% in 2Q16, due to sharply dampened private investment.
 Assessment: De-monetisation…

India: Brace for De-Monetisation's Impact on Growth

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

<ul><li>Global inflation has been muted over the past two years as a combination of factors curbed the upward march of price levels worldwide; yet these headwinds to inflationary pressures are dissipating.</li><li>We examine a number of metrics used to determine inflationary pressures and use them to help us understand the countries in which price levels could rise unexpectedly or faster than expected.</li><li>In summary, upside surprises to inflation are likely to be seen in China, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia.</li></ul>

Global inflation has been muted over the past two years as a combination of factors curbed the upward march of price levels worldwide; yet these headwinds to inflationary pressures are dissipating.We examine a number of metrics used to determine inflationary pressures and use them to help us understand the countries in which price levels could rise unexpectedly or faster than expected.In summary, upside surprises to inflation are likely to be seen in China, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Inflation Outlook: Watch for Upside Surprises in Asia

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In India’s darkest economic hour, with the economy starved of cash, the prime minister extolling the people on the virtues of sacrifice and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) governor finally emerging from his 14-day absence and silence to reassure citizens, one critical individual has gone “missing”.  A look out poster should be released forthwith to find out the whereabouts of Arvind Subramanian, the charismatic Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Indian government.In the history of independent…

In India’s darkest economic hour, with the economy starved of cash, the prime minister extolling the people on the virtues of sacrifice and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) governor finally emerging from his 14-day absence and silence to reassure citizens, one critical individual has gone “missing”.  A look out poster should be released forthwith to find out the whereabouts of Arvind Subramanian, the charismatic Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Indian government.In the history of independent…

"Missing" – India's Chief Economic Adviser

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

"Jugaad" is the popular Indian word for "Hustle", as the self-proclaimed hustling CEO Travis Kalanick who has been pushing legal boundaries for Uber across cities, learnt during one of his early India visits. He was exhorting Indians to be hustlers during a guest lecture to aspiring tech entrepreneurs.  And India definitely seems to have lived up to its reputation of Jugaad/Hustlers once again after demonetization, as more than half of the outstanding High-Value notes (Rs8trn out of Rs15.3trn)…

"Jugaad" is the popular Indian word for "Hustle", as the self-proclaimed hustling CEO Travis Kalanick who has been pushing legal boundaries for Uber across cities, learnt during one of his early India visits. He was exhorting Indians to be hustlers during a guest lecture to aspiring tech entrepreneurs.  And India definitely seems to have lived up to its reputation of Jugaad/Hustlers once again after demonetization, as more than half of the outstanding High-Value notes (Rs8trn out of Rs15.3trn)…

'Indian Hustle' Undermines Govt Efforts to Curb Black Money: Demonetization May Be A Costly Mistake!

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Dynamic population growth over the historic period has made India one of the most prospective markets for potential growth in toys and games globally. However, the country’s low-income level has kept spending on discretionary categories like toys and games beyond the reach of large swaths of population. Still India’s middle class continues to grow, and the general population is becoming increasingly urban. The child population is also growing, yet it’s growing slower than the number of households leading to lower dependency ratios. This combination of factors is expected to yield a very favourable environment for toys and games spending in 2020-2025.

Dynamic population growth over the historic period has made India one of the most prospective markets for potential growth in toys and games globally. However, the country’s low-income level has kept spending on discretionary categories like toys and games beyond the reach of large swaths of population. Still India’s middle class continues to grow, and the general population is becoming increasingly urban. The child population is also growing, yet it’s growing slower than the number of households leading to lower dependency ratios. This combination of factors is expected to yield a very favourable environment for toys and games spending in 2020-2025.

Demographics Point to 2020-2025 as the Golden Years for India's Toys and Games Market

India

iShares MSCI India ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI India Index.

iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA US)

India: Brace for De-Monetisation's Impact on Growth

Consumption and government spending drove upbeat 3Q16 growth: India’s GDP rose 7.3% y/y in 3Q16, up from 7.1% in 2Q16. Private consumption and...

Jason Tan

Inflation Outlook: Watch for Upside Surprises in Asia

Global inflation has been muted over the past two years as a combination of factors curbed the upward march of price levels worldwide; yet these...