Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>In this report, we highlight how the long running underweight in EM financial stocks has narrowed from a low of -4% in late 2013 to today's level of just -34bps.  We find that increased exposure to Chinese financial stocks, in particular the state-run banks have been the driving force behind this shift.  To a lesser extent, Indonesian and Turkish banks have attracted increased investment from EM funds, the former a continuation of a long bull trend, the latter a recent reversal in sentiment.</p>

In this report, we highlight how the long running underweight in EM financial stocks has narrowed from a low of -4% in late 2013 to today's level of just -34bps.  We find that increased exposure to Chinese financial stocks, in particular the state-run banks have been the driving force behind this shift.  To a lesser extent, Indonesian and Turkish banks have attracted increased investment from EM funds, the former a continuation of a long bull trend, the latter a recent reversal in sentiment.

EM Financials: Closing the Underweight - EM Funds Put Some Faith Back into Chinese Banks.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets / Technical Analysis

<p>Top-down and bottom-up technicals continue to articulate a bullish global outlook.  However a big rotation is underway.  The "anti-reflation" call is a narrative in critical condition.  We are seeing a shift into emerging markets and the global materials sector, one with long-term implications.  Intermarket analysis give this outlook the thumbs up; see attachment for complete analysis.</p>

Top-down and bottom-up technicals continue to articulate a bullish global outlook.  However a big rotation is underway.  The "anti-reflation" call is a narrative in critical condition.  We are seeing a shift into emerging markets and the global materials sector, one with long-term implications.  Intermarket analysis give this outlook the thumbs up; see attachment for complete analysis.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<div><strong>Chartonics</strong></div><p>Saturday 15 July 2017</p><div><strong>S&amp;P update</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/Ayual8S3VPPY" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/Ayual8S3VPPY&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1500227263058000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGlam5gnKujiQ7mwoHihA8YIdJAQA">https://www.screencast.com/t/Ayual8S3VPPY</a> </strong>12:56 min.</p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/029/800/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1500140956" data-smartkarma-image-id="29800"></figure><div class="content-caption">Equity webcast</div>
<p><strong>S&amp;P</strong> - Rise into our 2,440-60 turn zone. Given momentum we have yet to pull the trigger on any short in the S&amp;P but now looking for a minor new high near 2,460 to reduce S&amp;P exposure. If we clear 2,460 it does open the way to an extension to 2,515 that would need core sectors firing on all cylinders (banks/transports and tech).</p>
</div><div>Sectors we like near term are XLV…</div>

ChartonicsSaturday 15 July 2017S&amp;P updateTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/Ayual8S3VPPY 12:56 min.
Equity webcast
S&amp;P - Rise into our 2,440-60 turn zone. Given momentum we have yet to pull the trigger on any short in the S&amp;P but now looking for a minor new high near 2,460 to reduce S&amp;P exposure. If we clear 2,460 it does open the way to an extension to 2,515 that would need core sectors firing on all cylinders (banks/transports and tech).
Sectors we like near term are XLV…

US Rotation, EEM 44 and DXY 94.50 Inflection

<p>We run through our biggest gainers and losers in the first half of 2017 month by month for closed positions and where we stand with our current holdings/open positions.</p><p>We are currently up nearly 6% at the end of June, not as good as we did last year but in good shape to build on gains for the second half of 2017 as long as we get the summer equity peak cycle correct.</p><p>To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/nram1N8Xhlbm" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/nram1N8Xhlbm</a> 8:04 min.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/028/956/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1498926071" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="28956"></figure><div class="content-caption">Portfolio return webcast 1H 2017</div><p>Closed positions to…</p>

We run through our biggest gainers and losers in the first half of 2017 month by month for closed positions and where we stand with our current holdings/open positions.We are currently up nearly 6% at the end of June, not as good as we did last year but in good shape to build on gains for the second half of 2017 as long as we get the summer equity peak cycle correct.To view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/nram1N8Xhlbm 8:04 min.Portfolio return webcast 1H 2017Closed positions to…

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Mexican stocks have recovered from the shock election of Trump and we believe they have additional upside as the currency and equities strengthen.</li>
<li>Concerns over the impact of changes to NAFTA agreement and threats of building a wall on the US-Mexico border have faded as a result of dysfunction in Washington D.C.</li>
<li>The Mexican benchmark is up 10% since bottoming near 44,000 in the days following Trump’s election and has surpassed their 5-year high of 48,418 from October 2016.</li>
<li>The recovery has mostly…</li>
</ul>


Mexican stocks have recovered from the shock election of Trump and we believe they have additional upside as the currency and equities strengthen.
Concerns over the impact of changes to NAFTA agreement and threats of building a wall on the US-Mexico border have faded as a result of dysfunction in Washington D.C.
The Mexican benchmark is up 10% since bottoming near 44,000 in the days following Trump’s election and has surpassed their 5-year high of 48,418 from October 2016.
The recovery has mostly…


Mexico - Market Review and Two Actionable Ideas

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

EM Financials: Closing the Underweight - EM Funds Put Some Faith Back into Chinese Banks.

In this report, we highlight how the long running underweight in EM financial stocks has narrowed from a low of -4% in late 2013 to today's level...

Steven Holden

International Compass

Top-down and bottom-up technicals continue to articulate a bullish global outlook. However a big rotation is underway. The "anti-reflation" call...

Vermilion Research

US Rotation, EEM 44 and DXY 94.50 Inflection

ChartonicsSaturday 15 July 2017S&P updateTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/Ayual8S3VPPY 12:56 min. S&P - Rise into...

Thomas Schroeder

10% 1H 2017 Portfolio Gain

We run through our biggest gainers and losers in the first half of 2017 month by month for closed positions and where we stand with our current...

Thomas Schroeder

Mexico - Market Review and Two Actionable Ideas

Mexican stocks have recovered from the shock election of Trump and we believe they have additional upside as the currency and equities...

David Riedel