Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
The unfolding trade war and a threat of the new "cold war" between the US and China raise the spectre of a new currency war between them - watch the steady march of the renminbi FX rate towards the psychological level of 7 vs. the USD. The outcome of November mid-terms in the US should have long-term implications for some of the EM economies: with Democrats in the majority in the lower house, the US Congress would be more likely to approve new harsh sanctions against Russia. On the other hand, for China, this could bring an unexpected relief. The Turkish markets may be past the worst as demonstrated by the return of private and sovereign borrowers to global capital markets.
</div>


The unfolding trade war and a threat of the new "cold war" between the US and China raise the spectre of a new currency war between them - watch the steady march of the renminbi FX rate towards the psychological level of 7 vs. the USD. The outcome of November mid-terms in the US should have long-term implications for some of the EM economies: with Democrats in the majority in the lower house, the US Congress would be more likely to approve new harsh sanctions against Russia. On the other hand, for China, this could bring an unexpected relief. The Turkish markets may be past the worst as demonstrated by the return of private and sovereign borrowers to global capital markets.


Monthly Geopolitical Comment: Gloves Come Off

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The recent global sell-off has caused consternation and confusion among equity investors.  We provide a technical appraisal of the current state of the U.S. equity market, and provide some perspective and guidance for navigating the current period of heightened volatility.

The recent global sell-off has caused consternation and confusion among equity investors.  We provide a technical appraisal of the current state of the U.S. equity market, and provide some perspective and guidance for navigating the current period of heightened volatility.

Technical Appraisal and Expectations for the U.S. Equity Market

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in further detail:<ul>
<li>Supporting our cautious outlook, cyclical and growth Sectors are breaking down on the international front - namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary.  </li>
<li>Overweight Norway.</li>
<li>Price support holding in Japan as RS improves. </li>
<li>Health Care remains attractive, especially defensive pharma Groups within Japan and Europe.</li>
</ul>

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in further detail:
Supporting our cautious outlook, cyclical and growth Sectors are breaking down on the international front - namely Technology and Consumer Discretionary.  
Overweight Norway.
Price support holding in Japan as RS improves. 
Health Care remains attractive, especially defensive pharma Groups within Japan and Europe.


Global Equity Strategy: Market Deterioration Continues; Cyclical & Growth Sectors Breaking Down

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Poland: Inflation has remained subdued, with the CPI rising a mere 1.9% y/y in September vs. 2% in the prior month.</li>
<li>Mexico: Industrial production in August was up 0.2% y/y after increasing 1.3% in July. Mexico continues to have some momentum.</li>
<li>South Africa: Retail sales in August rose 2.5% following an 1.4% increase in July. It was the biggest gain in retail trade since May.</li>
</ul>


Poland: Inflation has remained subdued, with the CPI rising a mere 1.9% y/y in September vs. 2% in the prior month.
Mexico: Industrial production in August was up 0.2% y/y after increasing 1.3% in July. Mexico continues to have some momentum.
South Africa: Retail sales in August rose 2.5% following an 1.4% increase in July. It was the biggest gain in retail trade since May.


RRG Global Macro Weekly - Consumer Sentiment Remains High - Watch Markets and Rates

<ul>
<li>
We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.</li>
<li>
Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.</li>
<li>
Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.</li>
<li>
In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.</li>
</ul>



We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to price and RS uptrend violations for the Sector. Reduce exposure.

Many major indexes testing support. We cover the S&amp;P 500, Dow, small-caps, PHLX Semiconductor, international developed and emerging markets, which are all at logical support areas. While we expect to see these indexes firm up at current levels based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns is not far off.

Big picture trends. The cyclicals  vs. staples ratio remains elevated and has not broken down. Something similar can be said of the growth vs. value ratio, where the uptrend remains intact.

In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy, Consumer Staples, Materials, and Utilities.


Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

Monthly Geopolitical Comment: Gloves Come Off

The unfolding trade war and a threat of the new "cold war" between the US and China raise the spectre of a new currency war between them - watch...

Tatiana Orlova

Technical Appraisal and Expectations for the U.S. Equity Market

The recent global sell-off has caused consternation and confusion among equity investors. We provide a technical appraisal of the current state of...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Market Deterioration Continues; Cyclical & Growth Sectors Breaking Down

In our October International Strategy, we provide a synopsis on current market conditions around the globe, and explore the following themes in...

Vermilion Research

RRG Global Macro Weekly - Consumer Sentiment Remains High - Watch Markets and Rates

Poland: Inflation has remained subdued, with the CPI rising a mere 1.9% y/y in September vs. 2% in the prior month. Mexico: Industrial production...

David Riedel

Yield Surge Tests Equities; Downgrading Discretionary

We are downgrading Consumer Discretionary to market weight as retail breakdowns and continued weakness in homebuilders and major autos has led to...

Vermilion Research