Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Turmoil in Turkey and a collapsing lira has led to a breakout in the USD and global equity market weakness. Emerging and developed markets outside the U.S. are getting hit considerably harder than the U.S. given concerns over European bank exposure and EM contagion. The absence of international equity market strength remains a top concern for near-term performance of U.S. markets.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary and Data Processing &amp; Outsourcing Services areas.

Turmoil in Turkey and a collapsing lira has led to a breakout in the USD and global equity market weakness. Emerging and developed markets outside the U.S. are getting hit considerably harder than the U.S. given concerns over European bank exposure and EM contagion. The absence of international equity market strength remains a top concern for near-term performance of U.S. markets.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups within the U.S. Consumer Discretionary and Data Processing &amp; Outsourcing Services areas.

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Russia: CPI in July rose 2.5% y/y vs. 2.3% in June. It was the highest rate since last December mainly due to a rebound in food prices.. </li>
<li>Mexico: May saw 3.7% y/y decline in automobile production and 5.5% drop in car exports. Is this weakening on the US side?</li>
<li>India: IMF’s mission chief for India, highlighted growth forecast at 7.3 percent in the fiscal year through March 2019 and 7.5 percent in the year after that.</li>
<li>Summer Doldrums Broken By Storm in EM - Step Aside Until the Markets Stabilize…</li>
</ul>


Russia: CPI in July rose 2.5% y/y vs. 2.3% in June. It was the highest rate since last December mainly due to a rebound in food prices.. 
Mexico: May saw 3.7% y/y decline in automobile production and 5.5% drop in car exports. Is this weakening on the US side?
India: IMF’s mission chief for India, highlighted growth forecast at 7.3 percent in the fiscal year through March 2019 and 7.5 percent in the year after that.
Summer Doldrums Broken By Storm in EM - Step Aside Until the Markets Stabilize…


Turkey, Tesla and Trade Rattle Emerging Markets

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">Allocations in Philippines stocks hit their lowest level since 2011 as Global EM Managers scale back exposures.</div>• The average Philippines allocation among the 180 global EM managers in our analysis stands at just 0.8%, far off their highs of 2.14% back in early 2015. Only 58% of GEM funds hold any exposure to the Philippines.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/059/066/original/smart1.png?1532646791" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="59066"></figure>• <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/131" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:131:1">Ayala Land Inc (ALI PM)</a> is the most widely held stock though stands as a small underweight on average.  Most stocks are held by only a small number of GEM funds.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/059/067/original/smart2.png?1532647076" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="59067"></figure>• Over the…

Allocations in Philippines stocks hit their lowest level since 2011 as Global EM Managers scale back exposures.• The average Philippines allocation among the 180 global EM managers in our analysis stands at just 0.8%, far off their highs of 2.14% back in early 2015. Only 58% of GEM funds hold any exposure to the Philippines.• Ayala Land Inc (ALI PM) is the most widely held stock though stands as a small underweight on average.  Most stocks are held by only a small number of GEM funds.• Over the…

<ul>
<li>Turkey: Erdogan appointed son-in-law to head economy. Hints that interest rates need to come down hurt lira.</li>
<li>Brazil: IMF experts visited last week and seem set to ratchet down GDP expectations for 2018.  They are looking for GDP of just 1.8 for 2018 - much lower than the 2.3% they were expecting as recently as May.</li>
<li>Indonesia: Doubts rise about hitting 5.3% GDP growth for 2018 as challenges mount. Weak lira, higher rates and political divisions could hurt 2018 - We will focus on 2019 for growth…</li>
</ul>


Turkey: Erdogan appointed son-in-law to head economy. Hints that interest rates need to come down hurt lira.
Brazil: IMF experts visited last week and seem set to ratchet down GDP expectations for 2018.  They are looking for GDP of just 1.8 for 2018 - much lower than the 2.3% they were expecting as recently as May.
Indonesia: Doubts rise about hitting 5.3% GDP growth for 2018 as challenges mount. Weak lira, higher rates and political divisions could hurt 2018 - We will focus on 2019 for growth…


RRG Global Macro - Inflation Continues to Rise - Trade War Won't Help - Opportunities in EM

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

USD strength is pushing into the late stages of the immediate up leg where we see a cycle inflection or capitulation in EM and Asian FX in late July setting the stage for a dollar peak and EM equity low.The biggest near term risk for  USD strength stems from the Turkish Lira. If you recall, it was the TRY that kicked off the bullish USD domino cycle that we nailed back in March 2018. We now see fresh risk of a sharp USD rise versus the Turkish Lira that would set off a fresh round of USD…

USD strength is pushing into the late stages of the immediate up leg where we see a cycle inflection or capitulation in EM and Asian FX in late July setting the stage for a dollar peak and EM equity low.The biggest near term risk for  USD strength stems from the Turkish Lira. If you recall, it was the TRY that kicked off the bullish USD domino cycle that we nailed back in March 2018. We now see fresh risk of a sharp USD rise versus the Turkish Lira that would set off a fresh round of USD…

USD/TRY to Trigger Next Wave of USD Strength into a USD Peak and EM Cycle Low

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

USD Breakout; Foreign Markets Reeling

Turmoil in Turkey and a collapsing lira has led to a breakout in the USD and global equity market weakness. Emerging and developed markets outside...

Vermilion Research

Turkey, Tesla and Trade Rattle Emerging Markets

Russia: CPI in July rose 2.5% y/y vs. 2.3% in June. It was the highest rate since last December mainly due to a rebound in food prices.. Mexico:...

David Riedel

Philippines: Drifting in to Oblivion

Allocations in Philippines stocks hit their lowest level since 2011 as Global EM Managers scale back exposures.• The average Philippines allocation...

Steven Holden

RRG Global Macro - Inflation Continues to Rise - Trade War Won't Help - Opportunities in EM

Turkey: Erdogan appointed son-in-law to head economy. Hints that interest rates need to come down hurt lira. Brazil: IMF experts visited last week...

David Riedel

USD/TRY to Trigger Next Wave of USD Strength into a USD Peak and EM Cycle Low

USD strength is pushing into the late stages of the immediate up leg where we see a cycle inflection or capitulation in EM and Asian FX in late...

Thomas Schroeder