Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>World Stock Markets are being battered by weak US Fed Liquidity and by weakening World economic activity 
</li>
<li>
Central Bank tightness increasing driven by US Fed who are slated to drain US$2 trillion from markets </li>
<li>
Chinese economy struggling under C-19 lockdowns and tight People's Bank (PBoC)</li>
</ul>


World Stock Markets are being battered by weak US Fed Liquidity and by weakening World economic activity 


Central Bank tightness increasing driven by US Fed who are slated to drain US$2 trillion from markets 

Chinese economy struggling under C-19 lockdowns and tight People's Bank (PBoC)


What’s Driving The Bear Market ... Lower?

<ul>
<li>Emerging Market Liquidity Index (EMLI™) skids to 29.3 (range 0-100) as EM Central Banks tighten led by renewed Chinese PBoC squeeze </li>
<li>China struggling to stabilize Yuan under USD attack and forced to sharply tighten domestic monetary conditions</li>
<li>Added to an economy hit by C-19 lockdowns, monetary squeeze will further hit activity and lead to World recession , so crushing World commodity prices</li>
</ul>


Emerging Market Liquidity Index (EMLI™) skids to 29.3 (range 0-100) as EM Central Banks tighten led by renewed Chinese PBoC squeeze 
China struggling to stabilize Yuan under USD attack and forced to sharply tighten domestic monetary conditions
Added to an economy hit by C-19 lockdowns, monetary squeeze will further hit activity and lead to World recession , so crushing World commodity prices


China On The Brink … Commodities Set To Be Crushed!

<ul>
<li>
Bear market underway in World equities and likely to see one-third peak to trough decline</li>
<li>Trigger is US Fed QT, but US Fed is NOT about to start QT. It has already been underway since Dec 15th 2021</li>
<li>Each $100 billion of QT, costs the SPX index around 60 points. Therefore expect S&amp;P500 to test 3250, or 20% lower
</li>
</ul>



Bear market underway in World equities and likely to see one-third peak to trough decline
Trigger is US Fed QT, but US Fed is NOT about to start QT. It has already been underway since Dec 15th 2021
Each $100 billion of QT, costs the SPX index around 60 points. Therefore expect S&amp;P500 to test 3250, or 20% lower



QT Is Already Here And The 2022-23 Bear Market Is Now Well Underway

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000.</li>
<li>We recently hit marginal new lows; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to bearish, we believe there is potential for an oversold bounce</li>
<li>Still, we will need to see the NYSE have back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day to have confidence that a major bottom is in place.</li>
</ul>


We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000.
We recently hit marginal new lows; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to bearish, we believe there is potential for an oversold bounce
Still, we will need to see the NYSE have back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day to have confidence that a major bottom is in place.


Fed Set to Hike 50 Bps As Indexes Test Support; Energy Stocks to Buy on Pullbacks

<ul>
<li>
Global Liquidity seeing significant collapse and World Central Bank Liquidity slated to contract by 10-20% over 2 years</li>
<li>
 US Dollar set to make further gains.  US dollar swap-lines become important</li>
<li>
 World commodity prices to skid lower as World economy hits recession</li>
</ul>



Global Liquidity seeing significant collapse and World Central Bank Liquidity slated to contract by 10-20% over 2 years

 US Dollar set to make further gains.  US dollar swap-lines become important

 World commodity prices to skid lower as World economy hits recession


Alert: Do Bears Hunt in Packs? (Part 3) The Coming Turmoil in Currency and Commodity Markets

United States

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the MSCI TR Emerging Markets Index. The ETF holds emerging market stocks that can predominantly be classified as large and mid-cap. It weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology and rebalances quarterly.

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM US)

What’s Driving The Bear Market ... Lower?

World Stock Markets being battered by weak US Fed Liquidity and by weakening World economic activity. Latest data suggest we are going lower......

Michael J. Howell

China On The Brink … Commodities Set To Be Crushed!

The biggest driver behind sharply declining EM Liquidity is the renewed monetary tightening by China’s People’s Bank. The World economy will falter...

Michael J. Howell

QT Is Already Here And The 2022-23 Bear Market Is Now Well Underway

Bear market underway in World equities. Expect a one-third peak to trough decline, triggered by Fed QT. Target SPX 3250 on index

Michael J. Howell

Fed Set to Hike 50 Bps As Indexes Test Support; Energy Stocks to Buy on Pullbacks

We recently hit marginal new lows, something we have warned about over the past month; while the indexes and our outlook remains neutral to...

Vermilion Research

Alert: Do Bears Hunt in Packs? (Part 3) The Coming Turmoil in Currency and Commodity Markets

Part 3 of an explanation of the effects of much tighter Global Liquidity. The US dollar is headed higher and sky-high World commodity prices are...

Michael J. Howell