Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<p>We believe that the following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth for the remainder of this year:</p><ul><li>
<strong>Receding drags from contractionary factors in 2015</strong>: Last year saw a confluence of negatives in many countries such as bad weather, low commodity prices and the initially negative effects of policy reforms that will be good for the long term. In many cases, these contractionary factors are diminishing in impact or reversing.</li></ul><ul><li>
<strong>Gathering recovery in global manufacturing:</strong>…</li></ul>

We believe that the following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth for the remainder of this year:
Receding drags from contractionary factors in 2015: Last year saw a confluence of negatives in many countries such as bad weather, low commodity prices and the initially negative effects of policy reforms that will be good for the long term. In many cases, these contractionary factors are diminishing in impact or reversing.
Gathering recovery in global manufacturing:…

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

<p><strong>Japanese Yen: The weakening has only just started </strong></p><ul><li>
<strong>Both domestic and external demand weakening:</strong> Tertiary industry activity fell 0.1% m/m sa in February after +0.7% gain in January. The Nikkei-Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to a new low in April, with production and new orders falling sharply. Exports contracted 6.8% y/y in Mar 16, down from a 4.0% y/y decline in Feb 16. The even more precipitous import decline of 14.9% showed the dismal state of domestic demand. The earthquake in southern Japan is…</li></ul>

Japanese Yen: The weakening has only just started 
Both domestic and external demand weakening: Tertiary industry activity fell 0.1% m/m sa in February after +0.7% gain in January. The Nikkei-Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to a new low in April, with production and new orders falling sharply. Exports contracted 6.8% y/y in Mar 16, down from a 4.0% y/y decline in Feb 16. The even more precipitous import decline of 14.9% showed the dismal state of domestic demand. The earthquake in southern Japan is…

Weaker Yen Bad News for Asian Currencies; Brexit Risks Fall

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

<p><em>The BoJ’s deep throat policy makes sense this time around after the shock tactics back-fired in January.  The market is being massaged to expect comprehensive easing including a further rate cut aimed at a weaker JPY.  This time around expect most of the action ahead of the BoJ meeting next week.  JPY may weaken near term, but will face significant resistance toward 115 and may be volatile after the meeting with little net new direction.  We continue to see market risks building in China; weak corporate bonds, rising yields, steadily declining CNY against its basket, steady capital outflow and lagging equities.  AUD has been boosted by iron ore and oil, but is diverging recently and may also be reflecting constrained confidence in China, notwithstanding recent improvement in economic activity.  We had returned our focus to long gold in recent days, but it may work better against a short JPY position.</em></p>

The BoJ’s deep throat policy makes sense this time around after the shock tactics back-fired in January.  The market is being massaged to expect comprehensive easing including a further rate cut aimed at a weaker JPY.  This time around expect most of the action ahead of the BoJ meeting next week.  JPY may weaken near term, but will face significant resistance toward 115 and may be volatile after the meeting with little net new direction.  We continue to see market risks building in China; weak corporate bonds, rising yields, steadily declining CNY against its basket, steady capital outflow and lagging equities.  AUD has been boosted by iron ore and oil, but is diverging recently and may also be reflecting constrained confidence in China, notwithstanding recent improvement in economic activity.  We had returned our focus to long gold in recent days, but it may work better against a short JPY position.

AmpGFX - BoJ's Deep Throat and China Market Risks Make Way for Higher Gold/JPY

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Chartonics webcast </strong>Thursday 21 April 2016 </p><p><strong>China break down and Australia's fade</strong></p><div>To view click on this link:</div><div><strong><a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/zgY8Snelf" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/zgY8Snelf</a></strong></div><p>5:14 min.</p><div>Today we take a closer look at China and correlated links in Australia.</div><div>
<strong>China's property sector is breaking lower out of flat pattern that exhibits more bearish characteristics than the Shanghai composite</strong>. Note RSI and MACD turn points.</div><div>
<strong>Shanghai big break of 3,000 support</strong> yesterday was a trigger to lock in <a href="http://2823.hk/" target="_blank">2823.HK</a> gains per our update, and we…</div>

Chartonics webcast Thursday 21 April 2016 China break down and Australia's fadeTo view click on this link:http://www.screencast.com/t/zgY8Snelf5:14 min.Today we take a closer look at China and correlated links in Australia.
China's property sector is breaking lower out of flat pattern that exhibits more bearish characteristics than the Shanghai composite. Note RSI and MACD turn points.
Shanghai big break of 3,000 support yesterday was a trigger to lock in 2823.HK gains per our update, and we…

<p><strong>China: Low quality rebound may not be sustainable; but short term will boost global demand</strong></p><ul><li>A massive monetary and fiscal injection will further boost China’s growth in coming months but it will only add more capacity and leverage to a system awash in excess capacity and leverage.</li><li>China’s exports ended an eight-month contraction, with its top two markets, US and the EU, growing robustly. Import volumes have been healthy even as import values remain negative, positive for global demand.</li><li>But as China exports its surplus capacity, the pain it creates in industries such as steel will increase trade tensions and lead to a rise in protectionism which would also hurt other Asian exporters.</li></ul>

China: Low quality rebound may not be sustainable; but short term will boost global demandA massive monetary and fiscal injection will further boost China’s growth in coming months but it will only add more capacity and leverage to a system awash in excess capacity and leverage.China’s exports ended an eight-month contraction, with its top two markets, US and the EU, growing robustly. Import volumes have been healthy even as import values remain negative, positive for global demand.But as China exports its surplus capacity, the pain it creates in industries such as steel will increase trade tensions and lead to a rise in protectionism which would also hurt other Asian exporters.

Story of Global Trade Recovery Bolstered by China's Trade Upturn

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

Drivers of Asian Growth - Part 1

We believe that the following factors will largely determine the outlook for Asian economic growth for the remainder of this year: Receding drags...

Jason Tan

Weaker Yen Bad News for Asian Currencies; Brexit Risks Fall

Japanese Yen: The weakening has only just started Both domestic and external demand weakening: Tertiary industry activity fell 0.1% m/m sa in...

Manu Bhaskaran

AmpGFX - BoJ's Deep Throat and China Market Risks Make Way for Higher Gold/JPY

The BoJ’s deep throat policy makes sense this time around after the shock tactics back-fired in January. The market is being massaged to expect...

Greg Gibbs

China Support Break

Chartonics webcast Thursday 21 April 2016 China break down and Australia's fadeTo view click on this link:http://www.screencast.com/t/zgY8Snelf5:14...

Thomas Schroeder

Story of Global Trade Recovery Bolstered by China's Trade Upturn

China: Low quality rebound may not be sustainable; but short term will boost global demand A massive monetary and fiscal injection will further...

Manu Bhaskaran