Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Greensill Tab Begins:Greensill Capital (Greensill) filed for insolvency in the United Kingdom after lawyers for had cited Greensill’s inability to repay a USD 140 mn bridge loan provided by Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX) [Credit Suisse]. In particular, the allegations of fraud by Bafin and the British Business Bank removing the British government guarantee on COVID-19 lending highlight the increased likelihood of substantially higher losses and other tail risk; and  *Credit Suisse Taking Steps: The hit parade continues. Credit Suisse has stated that the company’s Board is investigating its own ties with Greensill, replaced its asset management CEO, asset management will be segregated from international wealth management, and employee compensation could be subject to clawback.

*Greensill Tab Begins:Greensill Capital (Greensill) filed for insolvency in the United Kingdom after lawyers for had cited Greensill’s inability to repay a USD 140 mn bridge loan provided by Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX) [Credit Suisse]. In particular, the allegations of fraud by Bafin and the British Business Bank removing the British government guarantee on COVID-19 lending highlight the increased likelihood of substantially higher losses and other tail risk; and  *Credit Suisse Taking Steps: The hit parade continues. Credit Suisse has stated that the company’s Board is investigating its own ties with Greensill, replaced its asset management CEO, asset management will be segregated from international wealth management, and employee compensation could be subject to clawback. 

Credit Suisse Group – Greensill Fallout Continues

China Merchants Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

*Weak 4Q20 Bottom-Line: China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] pre-announced a poor set of 4Q20 results. On March 19, 2020, the finals were disclosed and the results were even uglier than anticipated. While its true that net profit declined CNY 6.1 bn (22.7%) on a linked quarter basis to CNY 20.9 bn –despite having its tax rate decline 790 bp to 15.6% over the period, core operating results came in at just CNY 13.9 bn – declining CNY 9.3 bn or 40.0% linked quarter;  and *Best Retail Franchise Hitting Credit Wall: While CMB has the best retail franchise in mainland China, credit risk has substantially increased in 4Q20. More worrisome is the net new NPL increase of CNY 14.8 bn, representing an annualized increase in net new NPLs of 104.7%. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 213% - suggesting even the mighty are falling.

*Weak 4Q20 Bottom-Line: China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] pre-announced a poor set of 4Q20 results. On March 19, 2020, the finals were disclosed and the results were even uglier than anticipated. While its true that net profit declined CNY 6.1 bn (22.7%) on a linked quarter basis to CNY 20.9 bn –despite having its tax rate decline 790 bp to 15.6% over the period, core operating results came in at just CNY 13.9 bn – declining CNY 9.3 bn or 40.0% linked quarter;  and *Best Retail Franchise Hitting Credit Wall: While CMB has the best retail franchise in mainland China, credit risk has substantially increased in 4Q20. More worrisome is the net new NPL increase of CNY 14.8 bn, representing an annualized increase in net new NPLs of 104.7%. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 213% - suggesting even the mighty are falling. 

China Merchants Bank – Pulling On All Levers

*CBA’s Foray Into BNPL Adds Pressure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] FY 1H21 Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) operating results have turned the corner and are close to break-even, by our calculation. The competition is noticing Afterpay’s performance.  Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU) [CBA] has announced its own BNPL product beginning June 2021 which will pressure Afterpay in its home market; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 390% over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways.

*CBA’s Foray Into BNPL Adds Pressure: Tencent Holding’s (700.HK) [Tencent] Afterpay Touch (APT.AU) [Afterpay] FY 1H21 Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) operating results have turned the corner and are close to break-even, by our calculation. The competition is noticing Afterpay’s performance.  Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU) [CBA] has announced its own BNPL product beginning June 2021 which will pressure Afterpay in its home market; and*Tencent’s Midas Touch: Tencent continues to hit it out of the park with its Afterpay stake. In addition to its superb return on investment of nearly 390% over the past nine months since the stake announcement - -even after giving back some of its gains, this alliance with Australia’s premier financial technology Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) company is paying dividends to Tencent in numerous other ways. 

Tencent Holdings – Replication Is Flattery

*Fines: As previously discussed, State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) fined China Literature (772.HK), Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] subsidiary CNY 500,000 for failing to gain certain acquisition or buyout approvals – thereby violating the country’s anti-monopoly laws. The fine was relatively small given the size of the acquisition despite regulators determining that those Tencent’s deals weren’t anti-competitive. Nevertheless, the fine should have served as a wake-up call to halt M&amp;A activity without the requisite regulatory sign off; and  *Financial Holding Company Structure: According to Bloomberg, Tencent likely will be required to create a financial holding company for all of its banking, insurance, and payment services businesses – and be regulated along the lines of the banking sector. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in.

 *Fines: As previously discussed, State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) fined China Literature (772.HK), Tencent Holdings’ (700.HK) [Tencent] subsidiary CNY 500,000 for failing to gain certain acquisition or buyout approvals – thereby violating the country’s anti-monopoly laws. The fine was relatively small given the size of the acquisition despite regulators determining that those Tencent’s deals weren’t anti-competitive. Nevertheless, the fine should have served as a wake-up call to halt M&amp;A activity without the requisite regulatory sign off; and  *Financial Holding Company Structure: According to Bloomberg, Tencent likely will be required to create a financial holding company for all of its banking, insurance, and payment services businesses – and be regulated along the lines of the banking sector. For Tencent, WeChat Pay and the broader lending/deposit taking business are likely to be reined-in. 

*No Results Surprise Post-Profit Warning: In January 2021, MTR Corp (66.HK) [MTR] issued a profit warning for FY 2020, suggesting that the company faced significant operational and valuation challenges, which led to its first loss since listing two decades ago. As warned, MTR announced losses of HKD 4.8 bn both related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and a troubled mega project;*2021 Not Looking Much Better: The decision by the Hong Kong government to close all but three border checkpoints since the beginning of 2020 is likely to remain through most of 2021 as business conditions continue to worsen; and* New Projects Remain In Progress: The construction of Shatin-Central Link is in progress, Tuen Ma Line Phase 1 (Tai Wai to Kai Tak) has already opened, and the full Tuen Ma Line is scheduled to be completed in 3Q21. The 1Q22 opening of the Hung Hom to Admiralty section is likely to be delayed.

*No Results Surprise Post-Profit Warning: In January 2021, MTR Corp (66.HK) [MTR] issued a profit warning for FY 2020, suggesting that the company faced significant operational and valuation challenges, which led to its first loss since listing two decades ago. As warned, MTR announced losses of HKD 4.8 bn both related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and a troubled mega project;*2021 Not Looking Much Better: The decision by the Hong Kong government to close all but three border checkpoints since the beginning of 2020 is likely to remain through most of 2021 as business conditions continue to worsen; and* New Projects Remain In Progress: The construction of Shatin-Central Link is in progress, Tuen Ma Line Phase 1 (Tai Wai to Kai Tak) has already opened, and the full Tuen Ma Line is scheduled to be completed in 3Q21. The 1Q22 opening of the Hung Hom to Admiralty section is likely to be delayed.  

China

iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF is an exchanged-traded fund established in Hong Kong. The investment objective of the iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF is to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, closely correspond to the performance of A50 Index.

iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China (2823 HK)

Credit Suisse Group – Greensill Fallout Continues

CREDIT SUISSE GROUP: The hits continue at CS. The Board is investigating ties with Greensill, replaced its AM CEO, AM will be segregated, and...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Merchants Bank – Pulling On All Levers

CHINA MERCHANTS BANK: CMB's core operating results came in at just CNY 13.9 bn – declining 40.0% linked quarter. Negative operating jaws, and net...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Replication Is Flattery

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent’s Afterpay BNPL performance is turning heads. Commonwealth Bank of Australia has announced its own BNPL product which...

Thomas J. Monaco

Tencent Holdings – Shaking Its Tree

TENCENT HOLDINGS: Tencent and the FinTech's likely will now be required to create a financial holding company, which will likely rein-in WeChat Pay...

Thomas J. Monaco

MTR Corp – Struggles Set To Continue

MTR CORP: As warned, MTR announced losses of HKD 4.8 bn both due to the impact of COVID-19 and a troubled mega project. With border closures to...

Thomas J. Monaco