Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:<ol><li class="p1">The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,</li><li class="p1">Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSI</li><li class="p1">Highlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. </li></ol>

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on:The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global economy,Why the consensus view (that while the eurozone is proving resilient to the turmoil surrounding the Brexit the UK is already suffering greatly and is set to for further pain) is inconsistent with recent evidence in the GCSIHighlight which markets and sectors globally can be expected to outperform through year end. 

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The recent slew of economic data reveals a stabilisation that remains on tenuous footing. Notably, FAI decelerated markedly, led by paltry growth in private investment.</li><li>Risks abound: Credit risks stemming from souring corporate loans and shadowy wealth management products need to be pared; inflation risks are mostly under control as core inflation creeps upwards to healthier levels; growth risks remain the most salient as structural reforms are needed for long-term sustainability.</li><li>Monetary policy will remain accommodative while fiscal stimulus will be stepped up. There will also be a need for concerted efforts to reduce overcapacity and deleveraging.</li></ul>

The recent slew of economic data reveals a stabilisation that remains on tenuous footing. Notably, FAI decelerated markedly, led by paltry growth in private investment.Risks abound: Credit risks stemming from souring corporate loans and shadowy wealth management products need to be pared; inflation risks are mostly under control as core inflation creeps upwards to healthier levels; growth risks remain the most salient as structural reforms are needed for long-term sustainability.Monetary policy will remain accommodative while fiscal stimulus will be stepped up. There will also be a need for concerted efforts to reduce overcapacity and deleveraging.

China: Economic Stabilisation Needs to Be Undergirded by Structural Reforms

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China / Technical Analysis

Chartonics flash Monday 15 August 2016China afterburner<div>In today's weekly report we wrote "Shanghai composite is adding fuel with a bullish reversal that must clear 3,100 to reach for 3,160 and 3,220 targets."</div>We did clear 3,100 which adds fuel to our H shares perform/long bet. The successful test and rally off of back swing support is a structural positive. C wave projection comes in at 3,220, surpassing this target would suggest the rally is more impulsive and reach for 3,400-500. A failure near…

Chartonics flash Monday 15 August 2016China afterburnerIn today's weekly report we wrote "Shanghai composite is adding fuel with a bullish reversal that must clear 3,100 to reach for 3,160 and 3,220 targets."We did clear 3,100 which adds fuel to our H shares perform/long bet. The successful test and rally off of back swing support is a structural positive. C wave projection comes in at 3,220, surpassing this target would suggest the rally is more impulsive and reach for 3,400-500. A failure near…

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 14 August 2016 Trade pointsTo view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1471215924139000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGSANYz4Evr_EpTf9P4rqByO_bZtA">http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX</a> 9:58 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/011/678/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1471130905" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="11678"><figcaption class="figcaption">FX webcast</figcaption></figure> DXY backing off of 96.50 resistance is finding early USD bid support near the 95 zone. Pullback support at 94.50 but we see support on any spike below 95 followed by renewed USD strength for a fresh test on 96.50. Rising pattern implies a MT rise to 98.50 barring a break below 94.40 (would induce a weaker USD). Macro support remains at 92. We see positive…

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 14 August 2016 Trade pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX 9:58 min.FX webcast DXY backing off of 96.50 resistance is finding early USD bid support near the 95 zone. Pullback support at 94.50 but we see support on any spike below 95 followed by renewed USD strength for a fresh test on 96.50. Rising pattern implies a MT rise to 98.50 barring a break below 94.40 (would induce a weaker USD). Macro support remains at 92. We see positive…

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power has made more progress, with the faction led by former President Hu Jintao and Premier Li Keqiang the key loser.<ul>
<li>
Overhaul of Communist Youth League: China’s Communist Party is downsizing its youth division, which has long been a crucial pipeline for future Party leaders and is a rival bloc to the princeling camp which President Xi Jinping hails from.</li>
<li>
The sudden postponement of the National Financial Work Conference is also seen as part of this power…</li>
</ul>

President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power has made more progress, with the faction led by former President Hu Jintao and Premier Li Keqiang the key loser.

Overhaul of Communist Youth League: China’s Communist Party is downsizing its youth division, which has long been a crucial pipeline for future Party leaders and is a rival bloc to the princeling camp which President Xi Jinping hails from.

The sudden postponement of the National Financial Work Conference is also seen as part of this power…


China

iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF is an exchanged-traded fund established in Hong Kong. The investment objective of the iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF is to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, closely correspond to the performance of A50 Index.

iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China (2823 HK)

Why the Consensus Is Wrong on The UK - Strategy Through Year End

In this month's analysis of the RRG Global Consumer Sentiment Index (GCSI) we focus on: The recent impact the Brexit has had on the global...

David Riedel

China: Economic Stabilisation Needs to Be Undergirded by Structural Reforms

The recent slew of economic data reveals a stabilisation that remains on tenuous footing. Notably, FAI decelerated markedly, led by paltry growth...

Manu Bhaskaran

Bullish China

Chartonics flash Monday 15 August 2016China afterburnerIn today's weekly report we wrote "Shanghai composite is adding fuel with a bullish reversal...

Thomas Schroeder

FX Position Trades

Chartonics FX webcast Sunday 14 August 2016 Trade pointsTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/mdn546JX 9:58 min. DXY backing off...

Thomas Schroeder

China: Premier Li's Powerbase Weakened

President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power has made more progress, with the faction led by former President Hu Jintao and Premier Li Keqiang the...

Jason Tan