Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China housing market may be confusing when you watch it from further afield: how do you square house price bubble trouble (not only in Tier-1 cities) headlined now across the media with the dire state of ghost cities and oversupply portrayed at the same time, with supply-side reforms on top of the agenda? Yes, the market has become more divergent and policy more differentiating between cities, but we still have the overall cycle at play. In this note, we look at the latest indicators for where we really might be in that cycle.

China housing market may be confusing when you watch it from further afield: how do you square house price bubble trouble (not only in Tier-1 cities) headlined now across the media with the dire state of ghost cities and oversupply portrayed at the same time, with supply-side reforms on top of the agenda? Yes, the market has become more divergent and policy more differentiating between cities, but we still have the overall cycle at play. In this note, we look at the latest indicators for where we really might be in that cycle. 

Latest Signals For China Housing Market Cycle - Peak Or Not?

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.</li><li>World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.</li><li>Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.</li></ul>

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

China has the biggest, most varied, auto market in the world. Economic problems have seen a small shift towards electric vehicles and a larger one towards SUVs. And the Chinese are now buying more Chinese autos than ever before.

China has the biggest, most varied, auto market in the world. Economic problems have seen a small shift towards electric vehicles and a larger one towards SUVs. And the Chinese are now buying more Chinese autos than ever before.

In discussing China corporate debt issues, the differences between sectors, SOEs and private firms, and listed vs non-listed companies, all point at a more subtle picture of ‘China debt’.While the direct central government debt and household debt levels in China are relatively low, the discussion about the sustainability of the corporate debt growth and level has become most prominent. Other Smartkarma contributors have covered the topic, for example in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/growing-corporate-debt-in-china" target="_blank">Growing Corporate Debt In China</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-struggling-amid-rising-debt" target="_blank">China</a>…

In discussing China corporate debt issues, the differences between sectors, SOEs and private firms, and listed vs non-listed companies, all point at a more subtle picture of ‘China debt’.While the direct central government debt and household debt levels in China are relatively low, the discussion about the sustainability of the corporate debt growth and level has become most prominent. Other Smartkarma contributors have covered the topic, for example in Growing Corporate Debt In China, China…

A Brief Note On 2 Twists To The China Debt Story

China

iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF is an exchanged-traded fund established in Hong Kong. The investment objective of the iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF is to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, closely correspond to the performance of A50 Index.

iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China (2823 HK)

Latest Signals For China Housing Market Cycle - Peak Or Not?

China housing market may be confusing when you watch it from further afield: how do you square house price bubble trouble (not only in Tier-1...

Robert Ciemniak

JASTA Will Push Saudi East

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow...

Emad Mostaque

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade...

Manu Bhaskaran

Selling Autos in China

China has the biggest, most varied, auto market in the world. Economic problems have seen a small shift towards electric vehicles and a larger one...

Bixmoor

A Brief Note On 2 Twists To The China Debt Story

In discussing China corporate debt issues, the differences between sectors, SOEs and private firms, and listed vs non-listed companies, all point...

Robert Ciemniak