Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Macroeconomics

China's FAI decelerated to 9.6%YoY growth for Jan-May 2016, suggesting a sharp moderation to 5.9% YoY growth for May 2016 alone. Industrial growth was unchanged at 6% YoY, driven primarily by strong consumption spending (retail sales were up 10%YoY) and public investment (which was all that buoyed FAI). The slowdown in FAI growth is potentially positive for China and the world, but is unlikely to last. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/168/original/Ch-FAI-IP.PNG?1465803380" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9168"></figure><div class="content-remarks">Source: REAL-economics.com, based on data from CEIC </div>Capital outflows accelerated in May,…

China's FAI decelerated to 9.6%YoY growth for Jan-May 2016, suggesting a sharp moderation to 5.9% YoY growth for May 2016 alone. Industrial growth was unchanged at 6% YoY, driven primarily by strong consumption spending (retail sales were up 10%YoY) and public investment (which was all that buoyed FAI). The slowdown in FAI growth is potentially positive for China and the world, but is unlikely to last. Source: REAL-economics.com, based on data from CEIC Capital outflows accelerated in May,…

China: Slower FAI Growth Is Evidence of Rationality, but Will Not Last

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">The quota allocation – the first of its kind awarded to the United States – was announced on June 7, 2016 by Yi Gang, Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank. This represents an apparent effort to broaden the overseas use of China’s currency, the yuan, and to lure capital back to mainland China. Additional details are expected to be forthcoming. </div>The RQFII program is one of the principal channels through which non-China-based asset managers may make a range of…

The quota allocation – the first of its kind awarded to the United States – was announced on June 7, 2016 by Yi Gang, Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank. This represents an apparent effort to broaden the overseas use of China’s currency, the yuan, and to lure capital back to mainland China. Additional details are expected to be forthcoming. The RQFII program is one of the principal channels through which non-China-based asset managers may make a range of…

Newsflash: United States to Receive USD 38 Billion RQFII Quota for Investments in China

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

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Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

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Manufacturing remains in trouble despite stimulus: The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in May 16 from 49.4 in April while the official PMI was unchanged. Both surveys found that new orders were declining, indicating future weakness. The Caixin survey also found a decline in manufacturing employment.</li>
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Service sector faltering: Caixin’s non-manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 in May from 51.8 in Apr 16, in line with the official PMI which also fell. As with the manufacturing survey, new orders…</li>
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Manufacturing remains in trouble despite stimulus: The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in May 16 from 49.4 in April while the official PMI was unchanged. Both surveys found that new orders were declining, indicating future weakness. The Caixin survey also found a decline in manufacturing employment.

Service sector faltering: Caixin’s non-manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 in May from 51.8 in Apr 16, in line with the official PMI which also fell. As with the manufacturing survey, new orders…


China: Structural Reforms Mean Pain; Trade Disputes Could Rise

Growth remains the main topic of conversation in the financial markets and among economists. But inflation is slowly surely becoming an equally important issue. Since we are seeing some degree of growth there is now also talk about the resurgence of inflation. That scourge remains quite limited as governments are still trying to get a good handle on economic expansion. Inflationary pressures are subdued everywhere.Inflation is not yet an issue, but if things develop according to expectations, it will be an issue by late this year. As inflation rises so will interest rates. Expectations are that we will see rates climb to 3% by the fourth quarter this year. Country Specific Developments:Russia: GDP begins to stabilize in April helped by oil and better global growthTurkey: Tourism drops sharply on tensions with RussiaChina:  Manufacturing sector continues to stagnate in May

Growth remains the main topic of conversation in the financial markets and among economists. But inflation is slowly surely becoming an equally important issue. Since we are seeing some degree of growth there is now also talk about the resurgence of inflation. That scourge remains quite limited as governments are still trying to get a good handle on economic expansion. Inflationary pressures are subdued everywhere.Inflation is not yet an issue, but if things develop according to expectations, it will be an issue by late this year. As inflation rises so will interest rates. Expectations are that we will see rates climb to 3% by the fourth quarter this year. Country Specific Developments:Russia: GDP begins to stabilize in April helped by oil and better global growthTurkey: Tourism drops sharply on tensions with RussiaChina:  Manufacturing sector continues to stagnate in May

EM Macro Insights: As Policy Makers Focus on Growth Inflationary Pressures Build

China

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China: Slower FAI Growth Is Evidence of Rationality, but Will Not Last

China's FAI decelerated to 9.6%YoY growth for Jan-May 2016, suggesting a sharp moderation to 5.9% YoY growth for May 2016 alone. Industrial growth...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Newsflash: United States to Receive USD 38 Billion RQFII Quota for Investments in China

The quota allocation – the first of its kind awarded to the United States – was announced on June 7, 2016 by Yi Gang, Deputy Governor of the...

Dechert LLP

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just...

David Riedel

China: Structural Reforms Mean Pain; Trade Disputes Could Rise

Manufacturing remains in trouble despite stimulus: The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in May 16 from 49.4 in April while the official PMI...

Jason Tan

EM Macro Insights: As Policy Makers Focus on Growth Inflationary Pressures Build

Growth remains the main topic of conversation in the financial markets and among economists. But inflation is slowly surely becoming an equally...

David Riedel

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