Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In September, national new home (“commercial residential”) sales GFA increased 35.3% YoY and 27.1% YTD YoY, compared to 19.1% and 25.6% in August, according to the latest data published by NBS today.This contrasts with the earlier trend of decelerating new home sales growth, though covers the period just before the new wave of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-new-wave-of-home-purchase-restrictions" target="_blank">home purchase restrictions was introduced in October. </a>National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 12.5% on YoY basis…

In September, national new home (“commercial residential”) sales GFA increased 35.3% YoY and 27.1% YTD YoY, compared to 19.1% and 25.6% in August, according to the latest data published by NBS today.This contrasts with the earlier trend of decelerating new home sales growth, though covers the period just before the new wave of home purchase restrictions was introduced in October. National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) increased 12.5% on YoY basis…

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Higher at 27.1% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Sep), Before New Wave Of Restrictions

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

As highlighted in our recent <a href="http://riedelresearch.us1.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7239ddbe561696f3ab3b55a2c&amp;id=d3aed3fadc&amp;e=e55ce1422e" target="_blank">‘Why the Consensus View Towards China is Set For a Major Shift - Implications For Global Equity Markets</a>’ international investor sentiment towards China is currently undergoing a paradigm shift. This is occurring as China transitions away from being a major drag on the global economy. Since late 2014 two key factors have worked to drive the stabilization seen in China’s economy:<ul>
<li>Recovery/surging property prices</li>
<li>Subsiding strength in the US dollar</li>
</ul>As the ongoing surge in…

As highlighted in our recent ‘Why the Consensus View Towards China is Set For a Major Shift - Implications For Global Equity Markets’ international investor sentiment towards China is currently undergoing a paradigm shift. This is occurring as China transitions away from being a major drag on the global economy. Since late 2014 two key factors have worked to drive the stabilization seen in China’s economy:
Recovery/surging property prices
Subsiding strength in the US dollar
As the ongoing surge in…

China Inflation Surprises to Upside - Start of a New Trend?

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Deflationary pressures subsiding: CPI rose 1.9% y/y in Sep 16, up from 1.6% in Aug 16. PPI rose 0.1% y/y in Sep 16, up from a decline of 0.8% in Aug 16 - the first rise since Jan 12.</li>
<li>
Service sector expanding: Caixin’s General Services PMI was at 51.4 in Sep 16, after 51.8 in Aug 16, the seventh successive monthly expansion though the rate of expansion slowed to a 3-month low.</li>
<li>
However, foreign trade was a let-down: Exports fell 10% y/y in Sep 16, down from a fall of 2.8% in Aug 16. Imports fell…</li>
</ul>



Deflationary pressures subsiding: CPI rose 1.9% y/y in Sep 16, up from 1.6% in Aug 16. PPI rose 0.1% y/y in Sep 16, up from a decline of 0.8% in Aug 16 - the first rise since Jan 12.

Service sector expanding: Caixin’s General Services PMI was at 51.4 in Sep 16, after 51.8 in Aug 16, the seventh successive monthly expansion though the rate of expansion slowed to a 3-month low.

However, foreign trade was a let-down: Exports fell 10% y/y in Sep 16, down from a fall of 2.8% in Aug 16. Imports fell…


Zhengzhou, the capital city of Henan province, made headlines in the Western media a few years ago through the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ei0FpwI1dqg" target="_blank">PBS 60 Minutes show</a>, with the city's East New District featured as one of the much talked about China ghost towns. A number of analysts have since shown a more subtle view on the area, but now in our latest data analysis it would appear that in full irony not only is the district out of trouble, but in fact it is one of the better performing districts on 3-month price growth and volume growth for new home sales, when compared against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-220-districts-which-are-the-best-performers" target="_blank">200+ major districts </a>across 23 cities in China. Zhengzhou overall has seen strong performance for home prices and sales volumes, to the point of recent price and volume spikes that brought in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-new-wave-of-home-purchase-restrictions" target="_blank">home purchase restrictions</a> - to a city normally considered rich in supply... In this note we look at what's really going on in Zhengzhou.

Zhengzhou, the capital city of Henan province, made headlines in the Western media a few years ago through the PBS 60 Minutes show, with the city's East New District featured as one of the much talked about China ghost towns. A number of analysts have since shown a more subtle view on the area, but now in our latest data analysis it would appear that in full irony not only is the district out of trouble, but in fact it is one of the better performing districts on 3-month price growth and volume growth for new home sales, when compared against 200+ major districts across 23 cities in China. Zhengzhou overall has seen strong performance for home prices and sales volumes, to the point of recent price and volume spikes that brought in home purchase restrictions - to a city normally considered rich in supply... In this note we look at what's really going on in Zhengzhou.

China Property: The Case Of Zhengzhou - With A Ghost Town Myth And Bubble Worries

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

China's exports fell in Sept16 at their fastest in 7 years (not counting the CNY months in 1Q of any year). China's exports declined a precipitous 10.2% YoY in September 2016, the biggest monthly decline since February 2016 -- and the largest monthly YoY decline outside the first quarter (which is affected by the Lunar New Year) in 7 years (i.e., since the GFC). China is losing global market share in both labour-intensive exports (to Vietnam and Bangladesh) and in areas like electronics and…

China's exports fell in Sept16 at their fastest in 7 years (not counting the CNY months in 1Q of any year). China's exports declined a precipitous 10.2% YoY in September 2016, the biggest monthly decline since February 2016 -- and the largest monthly YoY decline outside the first quarter (which is affected by the Lunar New Year) in 7 years (i.e., since the GFC). China is losing global market share in both labour-intensive exports (to Vietnam and Bangladesh) and in areas like electronics and…

Slumping Exports Lower the Trade Surplus, as Capital Flight Gains Pace

China

iShares China Large-Cap ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the FTSE China 50 Index, investing in large cap stocks. Its investments are focused in the financial, oil and gas, technology and communications sectors. The ETF uses a representative sampling indexing strategy, investing at least 90% of its assets in the securities of the underlying index.

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iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Higher at 27.1% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Sep), Before New Wave Of Restrictions

In September, national new home (“commercial residential”) sales GFA increased 35.3% YoY and 27.1% YTD YoY, compared to 19.1% and 25.6% in August,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Inflation Surprises to Upside - Start of a New Trend?

As highlighted in our recent ‘Why the Consensus View Towards China is Set For a Major Shift - Implications For Global Equity Markets’ international...

David Riedel

China: Exports Fall but Reforms Apace

Deflationary pressures subsiding: CPI rose 1.9% y/y in Sep 16, up from 1.6% in Aug 16. PPI rose 0.1% y/y in Sep 16, up from a decline of 0.8% in...

Manu Bhaskaran

China Property: The Case Of Zhengzhou - With A Ghost Town Myth And Bubble Worries

Zhengzhou, the capital city of Henan province, made headlines in the Western media a few years ago through the PBS 60 Minutes show, with the city's...

Robert Ciemniak

Slumping Exports Lower the Trade Surplus, as Capital Flight Gains Pace

China's exports fell in Sept16 at their fastest in 7 years (not counting the CNY months in 1Q of any year). China's exports declined a precipitous...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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