Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

The weekly data on new home sales in select 13 major cities (based on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS) for the week ending November 5 shows slightly extended declines in GFA volumes on the YTD y/y basis to -27% from -26%. On a 4-week y/y basis, the growth turned less negative though.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/037/467/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-11-07%20at%2010.21.12.png?1510022245" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="37467"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/037/466/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-11-07%20at%2010.21.19.png?1510022225" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="37466"></figure>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/today-s-china-data-on-property-sales-new-starts-land-sales-and-fai-sales-slowdown-continues" target="_blank">national level sales volumes</a> growth figure for September was +7.6% YTD y/y, thanks to sustained (though also slower) growth in lower-tier cities. The national data for October will be published by the NBS…

The weekly data on new home sales in select 13 major cities (based on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS) for the week ending November 5 shows slightly extended declines in GFA volumes on the YTD y/y basis to -27% from -26%. On a 4-week y/y basis, the growth turned less negative though.  The national level sales volumes growth figure for September was +7.6% YTD y/y, thanks to sustained (though also slower) growth in lower-tier cities. The national data for October will be published by the NBS…

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To Nov 5) - Marginally Worse YTD Y/Y, Improving 4W Y/Y

Economist

Richard Iley

<div class="content-highlight">Forget talk about de-leveraging. Bank of International Settlements (BIS) data on international debt issuance reveal that Chinese corporates are gorging themselves on USD debt at a record pace. Effectively a carry trade, Chinese offshore borrowing is a key, albeit unsung, driver of the abundant global liquidity currently flushing around the globe. There are a number of implications. Record offshore issuance means that onshore measures of Chinese credit growth underplay true growth in leverage. Currency mis-match risk also continues to escalate for China's corporates. Any renewed shift in expectations around the CNY could therefore quickly trigger the type of disorderly dynamics previously seen in 2015 and 2016. The fact that much of the offshore issuance is short-term additionally means that roll-over risk is also climbing, even as a booming US economy looks set to see the Fed press on with interest-rate hikes. </div>

Forget talk about de-leveraging. Bank of International Settlements (BIS) data on international debt issuance reveal that Chinese corporates are gorging themselves on USD debt at a record pace. Effectively a carry trade, Chinese offshore borrowing is a key, albeit unsung, driver of the abundant global liquidity currently flushing around the globe. There are a number of implications. Record offshore issuance means that onshore measures of Chinese credit growth underplay true growth in leverage. Currency mis-match risk also continues to escalate for China's corporates. Any renewed shift in expectations around the CNY could therefore quickly trigger the type of disorderly dynamics previously seen in 2015 and 2016. The fact that much of the offshore issuance is short-term additionally means that roll-over risk is also climbing, even as a booming US economy looks set to see the Fed press on with interest-rate hikes. 

China: Offshore Debt Surging, Financial Risks Escalating

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The concept of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have enough in common to justify a grouping of such disparate countries, economies and societies is absurd.  BRICS is a useful fund management and investment marketing tool but not the building blocks to build a group with true international power.China hosted the BRICS summit in Xiamen this weekend and invited some additional countries to participate (including Mexico, Tajikistan and Thailand).  Despite their protestations that this…

The concept of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have enough in common to justify a grouping of such disparate countries, economies and societies is absurd.  BRICS is a useful fund management and investment marketing tool but not the building blocks to build a group with true international power.China hosted the BRICS summit in Xiamen this weekend and invited some additional countries to participate (including Mexico, Tajikistan and Thailand).  Despite their protestations that this…

BRICS Summit in China Promotes an Irrelevant and Ineffective Global Grouping - Riedel on CNBC

Over the period February 28, 2016, to August 24, 2017, we monitored publicly available online English language 'Western' news headlines from around 10 major mainstream sources, for anything related to China. Around 14,000 headlines later, we've now applied word frequency analysis techniques to see what these headlines tell us about this past year and what's been gaining or losing coverage since the July update (for some technical/background details see a footnote below).While this does not carry…

Over the period February 28, 2016, to August 24, 2017, we monitored publicly available online English language 'Western' news headlines from around 10 major mainstream sources, for anything related to China. Around 14,000 headlines later, we've now applied word frequency analysis techniques to see what these headlines tell us about this past year and what's been gaining or losing coverage since the July update (for some technical/background details see a footnote below).While this does not carry…

Media Coverage /​ Sentiment On China - What Got Hot, What Faded (July-August 2017)

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

The Doklam standoff between India and China continues to attract daily press coverage although the rhetoric of escalation &amp; war has been reduced significantly in past few days. We take a game theory approach to evaluating this standoff that has been debated from strategic, political and economic angles. While a few commentators have published on game theory aspects of the dispute but approach has been fairly basic using Prisoners dilemma game to evaluate the strategic options available to both…

The Doklam standoff between India and China continues to attract daily press coverage although the rhetoric of escalation &amp; war has been reduced significantly in past few days. We take a game theory approach to evaluating this standoff that has been debated from strategic, political and economic angles. While a few commentators have published on game theory aspects of the dispute but approach has been fairly basic using Prisoners dilemma game to evaluate the strategic options available to both…

A Game Theory Approach to India-China Standoff at Doklam

China

iShares China Large-Cap ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the FTSE China 50 Index, investing in large cap stocks. Its investments are focused in the financial, oil and gas, technology and communications sectors. The ETF uses a representative sampling indexing strategy, investing at least 90% of its assets in the securities of the underlying index.

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iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)

China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To Nov 5) - Marginally Worse YTD Y/Y, Improving 4W Y/Y

The weekly data on new home sales in select 13 major cities (based on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS) for the week ending November 5 shows...

Robert Ciemniak

China: Offshore Debt Surging, Financial Risks Escalating

Forget talk about de-leveraging. Bank of International Settlements (BIS) data on international debt issuance reveal that Chinese corporates are...

Richard Iley

BRICS Summit in China Promotes an Irrelevant and Ineffective Global Grouping - Riedel on CNBC

The concept of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have enough in common to justify a grouping of such disparate countries, economies and...

David Riedel

Media Coverage / Sentiment On China - What Got Hot, What Faded (July-August 2017)

Over the period February 28, 2016, to August 24, 2017, we monitored publicly available online English language 'Western' news headlines from around...

Robert Ciemniak

A Game Theory Approach to India-China Standoff at Doklam

The Doklam standoff between India and China continues to attract daily press coverage although the rhetoric of escalation & war has been...

Asia Advisors

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52-week Range

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China Weekly Property Sales Data (13 Cities To Nov 5) - Marginally Worse YTD Y/Y, Improving 4W Y/Y

The weekly data on new home sales in select 13 major cities (based on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS) for the week ending November 5 shows...

Robert Ciemniak

China: Offshore Debt Surging, Financial Risks Escalating

Forget talk about de-leveraging. Bank of International Settlements (BIS) data on international debt issuance reveal that Chinese corporates are...

Richard Iley

BRICS Summit in China Promotes an Irrelevant and Ineffective Global Grouping - Riedel on CNBC

The concept of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have enough in common to justify a grouping of such disparate countries, economies and...

David Riedel

Media Coverage /​ Sentiment On China - What Got Hot, What Faded (July-August 2017)

Over the period February 28, 2016, to August 24, 2017, we monitored publicly available online English language 'Western' news headlines from around...

Robert Ciemniak

A Game Theory Approach to India-China Standoff at Doklam

The Doklam standoff between India and China continues to attract daily press coverage although the rhetoric of escalation & war has been...

Asia Advisors

Media Coverage / Sentiment On China - What Got Hot, What Faded (July-August 2017)