Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Investment cycle is in late-stage Speculation, with Turbulence next up</li>
<li>Falling Global Liquidity a major head-wind. Liquidity turns sub-par by early-2022</li>
<li>Start to consider Volatility-based investment strategies and more cash</li>
<li>Traditional economic analysis provides little help in asset allocation. Flow of funds analysis works far better</li>
</ul>


Investment cycle is in late-stage Speculation, with Turbulence next up
Falling Global Liquidity a major head-wind. Liquidity turns sub-par by early-2022
Start to consider Volatility-based investment strategies and more cash
Traditional economic analysis provides little help in asset allocation. Flow of funds analysis works far better


Is There A Bear Out There? Where Are We In The Global Investment Cycle?

<ul>
<li>Inflation fears are being fulfilled. High pass-thru of price shocks</li>
<li>Policy-makers will react (wrongly) by hastening ‘tapering’</li>
<li>This may trigger upcoming ‘liquidity crises’, and</li>
<li>Risk sharper World economic slowdown</li>
</ul>


Inflation fears are being fulfilled. High pass-thru of price shocks
Policy-makers will react (wrongly) by hastening ‘tapering’
This may trigger upcoming ‘liquidity crises’, and
Risk sharper World economic slowdown


<ul>
<li>World economy skidding lower, led down by weak Chinese economy</li>
<li>Chinese monetary policy mysteriously ‘flat-lining’</li>
<li>Major policy ‘sea-change’ away from ‘growth’ towards ‘Yuan stability’</li>
<li>Unlikely, Chinese will embark on major policy stimulus</li>
<li>Bullish for Chinese government bonds… and growth stocks</li>
</ul>


World economy skidding lower, led down by weak Chinese economy
Chinese monetary policy mysteriously ‘flat-lining’
Major policy ‘sea-change’ away from ‘growth’ towards ‘Yuan stability’
Unlikely, Chinese will embark on major policy stimulus
Bullish for Chinese government bonds… and growth stocks


The World Economy Is Sinking … Will China Bail It Out Again?

<ul>
<li>Latest data evidence a slowing World economy, led down by Asia
</li>
<li>Falling Global Liquidity is a likely reason</li>
<li>Bonds have recently proved prescient. Yields fall with slowing economies
</li>
<li>Digging deeper inside the bond market points to a coming ‘W’-shaped rebound
</li>
<li>Conclusion: by mid-2022, economies re-establish their pre-COVID trends</li>
</ul>


Latest data evidence a slowing World economy, led down by Asia

Falling Global Liquidity is a likely reason
Bonds have recently proved prescient. Yields fall with slowing economies

Digging deeper inside the bond market points to a coming ‘W’-shaped rebound

Conclusion: by mid-2022, economies re-establish their pre-COVID trends


What Are The Bond Markets Really Saying About The Slowing World Economy?

<ul>
<li>World markets are facing a major policy error ahead</li>
<li>Taper-talk is a worry, but QE is not the real problem</li>
<li>Policy-makers want to end QE, but keep interest rates low</li>
<li>Too much debt is the bigger problem, and low interest rates encourage debt</li>
<li>World is falling towards a ‘Japan’-like debt trap</li>
</ul>


World markets are facing a major policy error ahead
Taper-talk is a worry, but QE is not the real problem
Policy-makers want to end QE, but keep interest rates low
Too much debt is the bigger problem, and low interest rates encourage debt
World is falling towards a ‘Japan’-like debt trap


United States

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years. 

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Is There A Bear Out There? Where Are We In The Global Investment Cycle?

Asset allocation should be shifted more defensively in anticipation of major headwinds from slowing Global Liquidity growth in 2022

Michael J. Howell

Bad News Is Closer Than You Think

Markets are too complacent to 'transitory' inflation risks and to the absence of Chinese stimulus. There is a risk of another 'liquidity crisis'...

Michael J. Howell

The World Economy Is Sinking … Will China Bail It Out Again?

World economy is sinking, led down by China. Unlike 2008, do not expect a major Chinese policy stimulus to bail out the Chinese and World...

Michael J. Howell

What Are The Bond Markets Really Saying About The Slowing World Economy?

Looking closely at the US term structure of interest rates strongly suggests an upcoming 'W'-shaped pattern in World economic activity. This may...

Michael J. Howell

‘Japanification’ Is Coming

Central Banks are trying to shift away from QE policies, while maintaining low interest rates. This is a dangerous policy that threatens a...

Michael J. Howell

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)