Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Gold MONTHLY chart records back-to-back bearish shooting stars in April and May.</li>
<li>Steel stocks possibly bottoming on incessant tariff talks creating opportunity.</li>
<li>Silver looks technically better than gold and likely to outshine precious metal into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Gold MONTHLY chart records back-to-back bearish shooting stars in April and May.
Steel stocks possibly bottoming on incessant tariff talks creating opportunity.
Silver looks technically better than gold and likely to outshine precious metal into year-end.


Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the withdrawal of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondi-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22048:1" rel="noopener">Mondi PLC (MNDI LN)</a> from the contest to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ds-smith-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22150:1" rel="noopener">DS Smith PLC (SMDS LN)</a>, the gross spread to the deal turned negative (from &gt;10%).</li>
<li>At the median 7.07x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA (within the range of former transactions), the implied equity value of DS Smith would be 388.4p. (vs. an IBES consensus TP of 395p).</li>
<li>IP is giving away most of the synergies. Spread is 1.91%/2.86% (gross, annualized assuming settlement by Y/E). I would wait for the spread to widen, before setting it up.</li>
</ul>


Following the withdrawal of Mondi PLC (MNDI LN) from the contest to acquire DS Smith PLC (SMDS LN), the gross spread to the deal turned negative (from &gt;10%).
At the median 7.07x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA (within the range of former transactions), the implied equity value of DS Smith would be 388.4p. (vs. an IBES consensus TP of 395p).
IP is giving away most of the synergies. Spread is 1.91%/2.86% (gross, annualized assuming settlement by Y/E). I would wait for the spread to widen, before setting it up.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

International Paper Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>International Paper Company delivered a mixed set of results in the last quarter, with revenues falling short of analysts’ anticipations but above-par earnings.</li><li>Although underlying demand for their products improved during the quarter, it remained constrained by inventory destocking.</li><li>We give International Paper Company a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

International Paper Company delivered a mixed set of results in the last quarter, with revenues falling short of analysts’ anticipations but above-par earnings.Although underlying demand for their products improved during the quarter, it remained constrained by inventory destocking.We give International Paper Company a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.

International Paper Company: Pioneering New Era Investments Despite Economic Woes! – Key Drivers

<ul><li>International Paper had a challenging start to 2023 as its revenue was slightly down though still above analyst expectations.</li><li>International Paper reported $65 million of year-over-year incremental earnings benefits from building better IP initiatives, but lower prices across their portfolio and weaker demand impacted margins.</li><li>Despite these challenges, International Paper remained focused on their key priorities of taking care of employees, customers and maximizing shareholder value.</li></ul>

International Paper had a challenging start to 2023 as its revenue was slightly down though still above analyst expectations.International Paper reported $65 million of year-over-year incremental earnings benefits from building better IP initiatives, but lower prices across their portfolio and weaker demand impacted margins.Despite these challenges, International Paper remained focused on their key priorities of taking care of employees, customers and maximizing shareholder value.

International Paper Company: How Long Will The Struggles Continue? – Key Drivers

<ul><li>Despite high inflation and declining demand in the second half of the year, International Paper managed a fair result.</li><li>Despite the strong marketing efforts, the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street.</li><li>International Paper has made strategic investments to support the profitable development potential across its Industrial Packaging business.</li></ul>

Despite high inflation and declining demand in the second half of the year, International Paper managed a fair result.Despite the strong marketing efforts, the company failed to meet the revenue expectations of Wall Street.International Paper has made strategic investments to support the profitable development potential across its Industrial Packaging business.

United States

International Paper Company produces and distributes paperboard-based industrial and consumer packaging, uncoated printing & writing papers and market pulp. It maintains a global network of manufacturing operations in North America, Europe, Latin America, Russia and Asia.

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International Paper Co (IP US)

Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

Gold and Silver are likely to resume uptrends in the second half and with strength in other areas of materials the group is poised for a year-end...

Douglas Busch

International Paper/DS Smith: Spread

Following the withdrawal of Mondi from the contest to acquire DS Smith, the IP/SMDS gross spread to the deal turned negative (from +10%)....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

International Paper Company: Pioneering New Era Investments Despite Economic Woes! – Key Drivers

International Paper Company delivered a mixed set of results in the last quarter, with revenues falling short of analysts’ anticipations but...

Baptista Research

International Paper Company: How Long Will The Struggles Continue? – Key Drivers

International Paper had a challenging start to 2023 as its revenue was slightly down though still above analyst expectations. International Paper...

Baptista Research

International Paper: Major Drivers

Despite high inflation and declining demand in the second half of the year, International Paper managed a fair result. Despite the strong...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

​Gold and Silver are likely to resume uptrends in the second half and with strength in other areas of materials the group is poised for a year-end...

Douglas Busch

International Paper/DS Smith: Spread

Following the withdrawal of Mondi from the contest to acquire DS Smith, the IP/SMDS gross spread to the deal turned negative (from +10%)....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

International Paper Company: Pioneering New Era Investments Despite Economic Woes! – Key Drivers

International Paper Company delivered a mixed set of results in the last quarter, with revenues falling short of analysts’ anticipations but...

Baptista Research

International Paper Company: How Long Will The Struggles Continue? – Key Drivers

International Paper had a challenging start to 2023 as its revenue was slightly down though still above analyst expectations. International Paper...

Baptista Research

International Paper: Major Drivers

Despite high inflation and declining demand in the second half of the year, International Paper managed a fair result. Despite the strong...

Baptista Research

Gold and Silver are likely to resume uptrends in the second half and with strength in other areas of materials the group is poised for a year-end...