TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

Intel has more product delays, Coursera's chief competitor is acquired. IBM's email doesn't work and Redhat chief departs. Amazon tries to form a rebel alliance.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </div>

Intel has more product delays, Coursera's chief competitor is acquired. IBM's email doesn't work and Redhat chief departs. Amazon tries to form a rebel alliance.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

TMT Weekly: 4 Things That Stood Out the Week of 7/2/​2021

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Headline Developments A significant breakthrough with IBM (IBM) unveiling the world’s first chip on 2 nanometer (nm) technology.  In a nutshell, the nm represent the distance between transistors on a chip.  The less distance between transistors, the more density, performance and power efficiency.

Headline Developments A significant breakthrough with IBM (IBM) unveiling the world’s first chip on 2 nanometer (nm) technology.  In a nutshell, the nm represent the distance between transistors on a chip.  The less distance between transistors, the more density, performance and power efficiency.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Qualtrics International / Equity Capital Markets

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of implied market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of the initial IPO price range of $24 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the Qualtrics IPO.

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of implied market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of the initial IPO price range of $24 per share. Given the solid upside, we have a positive view of the Qualtrics IPO.  

President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

IoT, AI and other big data applications are driving the generation of data and the data that needs to be stored for the long term.  Magnetic tape, now 68 years old, continues to be used for long term data archiving.  The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.

IoT, AI and other big data applications are driving the generation of data and the data that needs to be stored for the long term.  Magnetic tape, now 68 years old, continues to be used for long term data archiving.  The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.

Fujifilm and IBM Magnetic Tape Milestone:  Supporting Archive Industry

Snowflake had a good quarter…it was a bit above expectations that were well telegraphed from the IPO, and their guidance was only inline (though likely conservative)….so what does one do with a stock that is the single richest multiple in the stock market (100x+ sales)? Buy a lot more? We can’t pretend to understand why this stock was up 16% today. And we can’t pretend to understand why the market values its revenues at 3x!!! the rest of high valuation software. We don’t short on valuation alone. But we certainly couldn’t justify owning Snowflake. <div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Snowflake had a good quarter…it was a bit above expectations that were well telegraphed from the IPO, and their guidance was only inline (though likely conservative)….so what does one do with a stock that is the single richest multiple in the stock market (100x+ sales)? Buy a lot more? We can’t pretend to understand why this stock was up 16% today. And we can’t pretend to understand why the market values its revenues at 3x!!! the rest of high valuation software. We don’t short on valuation alone. But we certainly couldn’t justify owning Snowflake. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Snowflake 3Q21: Our Revenues Are Worth More Than Your Revenues

United States

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) provides computer solutions through the use of advanced information technology. The Company's solutions include technologies, systems, products, services, software, and financing. IBM offers its products through its global sales and distribution organization, as well as through a variety of third party distributors and resellers.

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International Business Machines (IBM US)

TMT Weekly: 4 Things That Stood Out the Week of 7/2/2021

Intel has more product delays, Coursera's chief competitor is acquired. IBM's email doesn't work and Redhat chief departs. Amazon tries to form a...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #31

Headline Developments A significant breakthrough with IBM (IBM) unveiling the world’s first chip on 2 nanometer (nm) technology. In a nutshell,...

Granite Bay Capital

Qualtrics Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of...

Douglas Kim

Fujifilm and IBM Magnetic Tape Milestone: Supporting Archive Industry

The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.

Thomas Coughlin

Snowflake 3Q21: Our Revenues Are Worth More Than Your Revenues

Snowflake's first public quarter was a raging success according to the stock market, who boosted a 100x P/S company by 16% just for meeting...

Aaron Gabin

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TMT Weekly: 4 Things That Stood Out the Week of 7/2/​2021

Intel has more product delays, Coursera's chief competitor is acquired. IBM's email doesn't work and Redhat chief departs. Amazon tries to form a...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #31

Headline Developments A significant breakthrough with IBM (IBM) unveiling the world’s first chip on 2 nanometer (nm) technology. In a nutshell,...

Granite Bay Capital

Qualtrics Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Qualtrics is $19.0 billion in terms of market cap or $31.6 per share, which represents a 32% upside from the high end of...

Douglas Kim

Fujifilm and IBM Magnetic Tape Milestone: Supporting Archive Industry

The recent demo of technology to create 580TB tape cartridges will enable continuing use of magnetic tape to store the worlds most important data.

Thomas Coughlin

Snowflake 3Q21: Our Revenues Are Worth More Than Your Revenues

Snowflake's first public quarter was a raging success according to the stock market, who boosted a 100x P/S company by 16% just for meeting...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 4 Things That Stood Out the Week of 7/2/2021