Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan’s tech space fell hard last week, with the tech sector down 5.4%, compared to a 4.9% drop for the overall market. Semiconductors performed the worst, down 6.2%.</li>
<li>Hon Hai, Delta, Lite-On -- EV a major theme for the first-ever Taiwan Expo USA coming October 12th.</li>
<li>Taiwan wafer exports were at an all-time high in August. We note that wafer names have underperformed TSMC.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan’s tech space fell hard last week, with the tech sector down 5.4%, compared to a 4.9% drop for the overall market. Semiconductors performed the worst, down 6.2%.
Hon Hai, Delta, Lite-On -- EV a major theme for the first-ever Taiwan Expo USA coming October 12th.
Taiwan wafer exports were at an all-time high in August. We note that wafer names have underperformed TSMC.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trying to Recover After a Week of Deep Declines

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Intel's CEO has clearly put NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) in the cross-hairs with his conference comments and the unveiling of new graphics chips.</li>
<li>Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.</li>
<li>Intel is now slightly outperforming TSMC &amp; UMC, however has a lot of room to catch up in our view given its large underperformance over the last six months.</li>
</ul>


Intel's CEO has clearly put NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) in the cross-hairs with his conference comments and the unveiling of new graphics chips.
Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.
Intel is now slightly outperforming TSMC &amp; UMC, however has a lot of room to catch up in our view given its large underperformance over the last six months.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​UMC Long/​​Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts

<ul>
<li>Biden makes the most definitive statement to date that the US will defend Taiwan.</li>
<li>Texas Instruments hikes dividend, annouces additional buyback. Will other cash rich semiconductor stocks follow suit?</li>
<li>Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.</li>
</ul>


Biden makes the most definitive statement to date that the US will defend Taiwan.
Texas Instruments hikes dividend, annouces additional buyback. Will other cash rich semiconductor stocks follow suit?
Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. </li>
<li>Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.</li>
<li>Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. </li>
</ul>


Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. 
Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.
Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. 


Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trying to Recover After a Week of Deep Declines

AU Optronics stock suspended, Intel's Mobileye IPO is back, Samsung takes share from TSMC, Taiwan wafer exports are at an all-time high.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts

Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope

Also: Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

We think Disney is stuck. DTC streaming service is the future of media, a fundamentally less attractive business model. Disney remains an excellent...

Aaron Gabin

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Taiwan Tech Weekly: Trying to Recover After a Week of Deep Declines

AU Optronics stock suspended, Intel's Mobileye IPO is back, Samsung takes share from TSMC, Taiwan wafer exports are at an all-time high.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​UMC Long/​​Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts

Separate reports are that Apple is cutting back iPhone 14 production volumes, negatively impacting TSMC and the Apple supply chain.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope

Also: Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

We think Disney is stuck. DTC streaming service is the future of media, a fundamentally less attractive business model. Disney remains an excellent...

Aaron Gabin

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Post Conference Take Aways, Intel Performance Reverts