Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Renesas Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> shares priced at ¥1174/share on the 9th - the first day of Pricing, meaning the issuance would be completed on the <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/download?uji.verb=W0EZA104CXP001003Action&amp;uji.bean=ee.bean.parent.EECommonSearchBean&amp;PID=W1E63011&amp;SESSIONKEY=1623555011053&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;pkbn=0&amp;skbn=1&amp;dskb=&amp;askb=&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=&amp;preId=1&amp;mul=6723&amp;oth=on&amp;cal=1&amp;era=R&amp;yer=&amp;mon=&amp;pfs=4&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=&amp;s=S100LHP9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15th</a> and settlement one day later.Outwardly, the Offering appears to have been less well-placed than one would have expected or hoped. On the last day of the domestic investor subscription period, shares traded down to be pasted at the Stabilisation Price line in the last hour of trading on Friday.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/212/826/original/Screenshot+2021-06-13+at+8.44.07+PM.png?1623588287" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="212826"></figure></section>This is well off the post-announcement lows and investors, traders, and even I expected that the Pricing Date would see a lower close as long-only funds sold through Broker A to buy through Broker B to increase their ownership but by less than advertised. Market micro-dynamics and investing biases are fascinating subjects of study. I received a number of comments Friday which tell me that given the market price, had the Pricing been 1% lower compared to where shares closed Thursday, peoples' outlook would be quite different. This is despite 151 million shares (40% of the maximum Offering size) having traded in the last 3 days. Taking a step back is worthwhile.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) shares priced at ¥1174/share on the 9th - the first day of Pricing, meaning the issuance would be completed on the 15th and settlement one day later.Outwardly, the Offering appears to have been less well-placed than one would have expected or hoped. On the last day of the domestic investor subscription period, shares traded down to be pasted at the Stabilisation Price line in the last hour of trading on Friday.This is well off the post-announcement lows and investors, traders, and even I expected that the Pricing Date would see a lower close as long-only funds sold through Broker A to buy through Broker B to increase their ownership but by less than advertised. Market micro-dynamics and investing biases are fascinating subjects of study. I received a number of comments Friday which tell me that given the market price, had the Pricing been 1% lower compared to where shares closed Thursday, peoples' outlook would be quite different. This is despite 151 million shares (40% of the maximum Offering size) having traded in the last 3 days. Taking a step back is worthwhile.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> on 8 February 2021 announced that they had signed an agreement to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dialog-semiconductor-plc-664a1f83-2a21-4690-a91f-fb971832e7ad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21607:1" rel="noopener">Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR)</a> for an equity value of €4.9bn. The company on the same day <a href="https://www.renesas.com/eu/en/about/press-room/notice-concerning-filing-shelf-registration-statement-issuance-new-shares" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a shelf registration to issue up to ¥270bn of shares to pay for the deal.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/211/854/original/Screenshot+2021-06-08+at+10.38.41+AM.png?1623120032" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="211854"></figure></section>Renesas shares fell on the news, bounced, then fell, and have traded in a range of ¥1,100-1,300/share since then. In the interim (it will take until the end of 2021 to get the Dialog deal past foreign review boards and anti-trust regulators), the company experienced <a href="https://www.renesas.com/eu/en/node/1509341" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a fire at its Naka Factory</a> which will cost a ¥24bn impact in H1, there is an ongoing global chip shortage affecting both semiconductor makers and their customers, and the end of May saw the company finally <a href="https://www.renesas.com/eu/en/about/press-room/renesas-announces-issuance-new-shares-and-secondary-offering-shares" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announce</a> its equity offering - large at nearly US$4bn. This seemed like an overhang, but has ended up not being so much of one.The interim period, while showing a sideways trend for Renesas, saw its Peers outperform dramatically. The announcement of the equity offering and its size looked like it would present significant overhang. It has not turned out to be the case. There has been a "buy the news" reaction. It is a big offering. There are a bunch of moving parts. And lots of index flow.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) on 8 February 2021 announced that they had signed an agreement to acquire Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR) for an equity value of €4.9bn. The company on the same day announced a shelf registration to issue up to ¥270bn of shares to pay for the deal.Renesas shares fell on the news, bounced, then fell, and have traded in a range of ¥1,100-1,300/share since then. In the interim (it will take until the end of 2021 to get the Dialog deal past foreign review boards and anti-trust regulators), the company experienced a fire at its Naka Factory which will cost a ¥24bn impact in H1, there is an ongoing global chip shortage affecting both semiconductor makers and their customers, and the end of May saw the company finally announce its equity offering - large at nearly US$4bn. This seemed like an overhang, but has ended up not being so much of one.The interim period, while showing a sideways trend for Renesas, saw its Peers outperform dramatically. The announcement of the equity offering and its size looked like it would present significant overhang. It has not turned out to be the case. There has been a "buy the news" reaction. It is a big offering. There are a bunch of moving parts. And lots of index flow.

Renesas Equity Offering - Priced To Go With Index Demand Now and Later

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The latest WSTS semiconductor forecast provides a glittering outlook, but the organization's history, and the long-term trend of the industry, cast important doubt on the WSTS outlook.  Most of the positive sentiment appears to stem from the strong current market for memory chips.

The latest WSTS semiconductor forecast provides a glittering outlook, but the organization's history, and the long-term trend of the industry, cast important doubt on the WSTS outlook.  Most of the positive sentiment appears to stem from the strong current market for memory chips.

The Spring WSTS semiconductor forecast has been announced and it is very similar at the top-line level to the organization's Autumn forecast published six months ago.  At a more detailed level, though, there have been some significant changes that we explore here.

The Spring WSTS semiconductor forecast has been announced and it is very similar at the top-line level to the organization's Autumn forecast published six months ago.  At a more detailed level, though, there have been some significant changes that we explore here.

Spring WSTS Semiconductor Forecast Gives Mixed Outlook

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough.  There is still considerable uncertainty both from the COVID pandemic and from the on-again, off-again US/China Trade War.

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough.  There is still considerable uncertainty both from the COVID pandemic and from the on-again, off-again US/China Trade War.

Semiconductors in April: COVID Impact Still Small

Germany

Infineon Technologies AG designs, manufactures, and markets semiconductors. The Company offers products include power semiconductors, microcontrollers, security controllers, radio frequency products, and sensors. Infineon markets its products to the automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer and security electronics sectors.

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Infineon Technologies (IFNNY US)

Renesas - The Aftermath of the Offering

Renesas is at the Offering Price. Rather than selling the break I would be inclined to buy any major dip on break price vs global peers. There is a...

Travis Lundy

Renesas Equity Offering - Priced To Go With Index Demand Now and Later

Renesas will offer up to 373mm shares or what should be ~$4bn of new and used stock. Pricing (with pushing and shoving before) should be 9 June....

Travis Lundy

WSTS Forecast Update All Positive

WSTS announced a very bullish semiconductor forecast, but this Insight shows why the careful investor needs to understand how this forecast came to...

Jim Handy

Spring WSTS Semiconductor Forecast Gives Mixed Outlook

The Spring WSTS semiconductor forecast has been announced and it is very similar at the top-line level to the organization's Autumn forecast...

Jim Handy

Semiconductors in April: COVID Impact Still Small

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough. There is still considerable uncertainty both from the...

Jim Handy

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