Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.</li>
<li>Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.</li>
<li>Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. </li>
<li>On a stock level, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> (-7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">Indusind Bank (IIB IN)</a> are the hardest hit.</li>
</ul>


Allocations in Asian Financials stocks have fallen to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active portfolios this year.
Fund managers move to underweight following $3bn in net outflows.
Managers exit ASEAN banks, weights drop in China banks. 
On a stock level, ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) ,  Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) (-7.2%) and Indusind Bank (IIB IN) are the hardest hit.


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Solid Results In FY 2Q21: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [Kotak] reported a fairly stellar FY 2Q21 earnings result of INR 21.8 bn – exceeding FY 1Q21 results by INR 9.3 bn or 75.5% - a high quality beat of consensus as well; and*Strong Credit Metrics Across The Board: Gross NPLs were flattish linked quarter, while net new NPLs increased just INR 1.1 bn or 7.6% on an annualized basis. Further, despite the loss provisioning decline of INR 5.9 bn (61.7%), loss reserves at KMB increased INR 2.8 bn (7.4%) as NCOs continue to decelerate.

*Solid Results In FY 2Q21: Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB.IN) [Kotak] reported a fairly stellar FY 2Q21 earnings result of INR 21.8 bn – exceeding FY 1Q21 results by INR 9.3 bn or 75.5% - a high quality beat of consensus as well; and*Strong Credit Metrics Across The Board: Gross NPLs were flattish linked quarter, while net new NPLs increased just INR 1.1 bn or 7.6% on an annualized basis. Further, despite the loss provisioning decline of INR 5.9 bn (61.7%), loss reserves at KMB increased INR 2.8 bn (7.4%) as NCOs continue to decelerate. 

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Surprisingly Strong Performance

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indusind-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1558:1" rel="noopener">IndusInd Bank's (IIB IN)</a> bondholders would greatly welcome advances by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a>. Trading at a discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-baroda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:545:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Baroda's (BOB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank's (CBK IN)</a> 2022 maturity notes, IndusInd’s similar maturity bond is set to compress onto these bonds. We see at least 180 basis points of upside should Kotak Mahindra acquire IndusInd Bank.Bloomberg News reported that the Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., backed by Asia’s richest banker, is exploring a takeover of IndusInd Bank Ltd., citing people with knowledge of the matter. Kotak's  pro-forma CET1 ratio would decline to approximately 11.4%, post-acquisition, based on end-June 2020 capital levels and risk-weighted asset requirements. Although materially lower than its 21.8% current level, this would still leave Kotak Mahindra Bank as one of the better capitalized banks in India’s banking system. All of this is positive for IndusInd bondholders, should this transaction move forward.These are early days in the discussions, according to news reports; however, we expect the market to price-in a potential purchase quickly. We move to Overweight on IndusInd’s 3 7/8% coupon April 2022 maturity US$-bond on this news event.

IndusInd Bank's (IIB IN) bondholders would greatly welcome advances by Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN). Trading at a discount to Bank of Baroda's (BOB IN) and Canara Bank's (CBK IN) 2022 maturity notes, IndusInd’s similar maturity bond is set to compress onto these bonds. We see at least 180 basis points of upside should Kotak Mahindra acquire IndusInd Bank.Bloomberg News reported that the Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd., backed by Asia’s richest banker, is exploring a takeover of IndusInd Bank Ltd., citing people with knowledge of the matter. Kotak's  pro-forma CET1 ratio would decline to approximately 11.4%, post-acquisition, based on end-June 2020 capital levels and risk-weighted asset requirements. Although materially lower than its 21.8% current level, this would still leave Kotak Mahindra Bank as one of the better capitalized banks in India’s banking system. All of this is positive for IndusInd bondholders, should this transaction move forward.These are early days in the discussions, according to news reports; however, we expect the market to price-in a potential purchase quickly. We move to Overweight on IndusInd’s 3 7/8% coupon April 2022 maturity US$-bond on this news event.

Kotak + IndusInd = Happy IndusInd Bondholders; Move to Overweight

*Strong Results, But Managed: HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN) [HDFCB] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 770.3 bn, which increased INR 77.6 bn (11.2%) linked quarter. On a core operating basis, results improved INR 84.6 bn (14.5%) to INR 668.6 bn over the period. Other income drove the results outperformance;*Credit Still Breaking Down Ex-Supreme Court Ruling: The Supreme Court of India, in a public interest litigation directed that accounts which were not declared NPL through August 31, 2020 shall not be declared as such until further notice. On an apples-to-apples basis, we find that HDFCB’s gross NPLs increased 4.3% linked quarter. Inclusive of NCOs of INR 184 bn, we calculate that net new NPLs actually increased INR 765 bn or 22.4% on an annualized basis; and*Reserve Cover Needs Improvement: While provisions cover NCOs by 2.4x, we would be more comfortable if HDFCB was a bit more aggressive with its provisions – especially during periods when volatile sources of fee revenues gives HDFCB a gift to build reserves. By our calculation, reserves are currently short by nearly INR 680 bn or an entire quarter of core operating results.

*Strong Results, But Managed: HDFC Bank (HDFCB.IN) [HDFCB] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 770.3 bn, which increased INR 77.6 bn (11.2%) linked quarter. On a core operating basis, results improved INR 84.6 bn (14.5%) to INR 668.6 bn over the period. Other income drove the results outperformance;*Credit Still Breaking Down Ex-Supreme Court Ruling: The Supreme Court of India, in a public interest litigation directed that accounts which were not declared NPL through August 31, 2020 shall not be declared as such until further notice. On an apples-to-apples basis, we find that HDFCB’s gross NPLs increased 4.3% linked quarter. Inclusive of NCOs of INR 184 bn, we calculate that net new NPLs actually increased INR 765 bn or 22.4% on an annualized basis; and*Reserve Cover Needs Improvement: While provisions cover NCOs by 2.4x, we would be more comfortable if HDFCB was a bit more aggressive with its provisions – especially during periods when volatile sources of fee revenues gives HDFCB a gift to build reserves. By our calculation, reserves are currently short by nearly INR 680 bn or an entire quarter of core operating results.   

Asia’s Additional Tier 1 bonds underperformed as investors shifted into High Yield and X-over rated Senior Unsecured notes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">China Evergrande Group's (3333 HK)</a> attempts to restore investor confidence disappointed and negatively impacted risk sentiment. China’s US$6 billion in issuance also likely absorbed excess US$ liquidity, despite the low yields on offer.   US high yield markets continued to outperform Asia’s, and the relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. Asia’s recent index widening appears to be Evergrande driven and a reduction in this company’s financial distress could have a materially positive impact on Asia’s HY index.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening paused as investors digested negative stimulus, vaccine, and Covid-19 news in Europe. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin affirmed market sentiment that a stimulus package was unlikely to be agreed before the November 3 election. The reaction was limited by expectations that a stimulus agreement will be agreed at some point before the end of the winter. Nonetheless, short-term interest rate futures fell slightly as expectations of increased near-term monetary accommodation combined with limited near-term stimulus growth to lower rising rate expectations.In US equity markets, November futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) were unchanged week-on-week as election result outcomes continued to point to a less contentious result than anticipated a few weeks ago. Meanwhile the spot VIX Index rose 2 index points on slightly higher perceived downside risks from rising Coronavirus cases in Europe as well as setbacks in stimulus and vaccine developments.Emerging market capital inflows were essentially unchanged during the week as US dollar safe-haven strength returned to the market on weaker economic expectations in Europe and as Brexit negotiations continued to disappoint. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits. More immediately, the Evergrande situation, Brexit negotiation uncertainty and Coronavirus resurgence may offset dollar weakness in safe-haven dollar flight. This may limit EM inflows.Financial institutions issued over US$16 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (BNKEA)</a> issued an Additional Tier 1 bond while the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agricultural-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1120:1" rel="noopener">Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Bank (1988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unionbank-of-the-philippines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23192:1" rel="noopener">UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM)</a> brought Senior Unsecured bonds of various maturities. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-of-east-asia-s-new-at1-likely-coupon-and-curve-impact" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44112" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia’s New AT1 – Likely Coupon and Curve Impact</a> for our pre-issuance valuation thoughts on BNKEA's new AT1 bond.  Concurrently, China saw interest of over US$27 billion for its bonds. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a> was left off the list of banks arranging China’s sovereign dollar debt sale for the first time since the nation returned with big annual deals in 2017, according to Bloomberg.Market Outlook Time to separate the signals from the noise for bank investors. A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations. Eventual reflation is bank credit and equity positive, getting to reflation is not.

Asia’s Additional Tier 1 bonds underperformed as investors shifted into High Yield and X-over rated Senior Unsecured notes. China Evergrande Group's (3333 HK) attempts to restore investor confidence disappointed and negatively impacted risk sentiment. China’s US$6 billion in issuance also likely absorbed excess US$ liquidity, despite the low yields on offer.   US high yield markets continued to outperform Asia’s, and the relative outperformance of the US versus Asia resulted in continued high yield index spread decompression. Asia’s recent index widening appears to be Evergrande driven and a reduction in this company’s financial distress could have a materially positive impact on Asia’s HY index.In rate markets, US Treasury curve steepening paused as investors digested negative stimulus, vaccine, and Covid-19 news in Europe. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin affirmed market sentiment that a stimulus package was unlikely to be agreed before the November 3 election. The reaction was limited by expectations that a stimulus agreement will be agreed at some point before the end of the winter. Nonetheless, short-term interest rate futures fell slightly as expectations of increased near-term monetary accommodation combined with limited near-term stimulus growth to lower rising rate expectations.In US equity markets, November futures on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) were unchanged week-on-week as election result outcomes continued to point to a less contentious result than anticipated a few weeks ago. Meanwhile the spot VIX Index rose 2 index points on slightly higher perceived downside risks from rising Coronavirus cases in Europe as well as setbacks in stimulus and vaccine developments.Emerging market capital inflows were essentially unchanged during the week as US dollar safe-haven strength returned to the market on weaker economic expectations in Europe and as Brexit negotiations continued to disappoint. Over the near term, the more certain the market is of an uncontested election outcome, the greater the potential for US dollar weakness on concerns that more fiscal spending will widen U.S. trade and budget deficits. More immediately, the Evergrande situation, Brexit negotiation uncertainty and Coronavirus resurgence may offset dollar weakness in safe-haven dollar flight. This may limit EM inflows.Financial institutions issued over US$16 billion in USD and Euros. Amongst Asia-headquartered banks, Bank of East Asia (BNKEA) issued an Additional Tier 1 bond while the Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK), Bank of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK), China Minsheng Bank (1988 HK), and UnionBank of the Philippines (UBP PM) brought Senior Unsecured bonds of various maturities. Please see Bank of East Asia’s New AT1 – Likely Coupon and Curve Impact for our pre-issuance valuation thoughts on BNKEA's new AT1 bond.  Concurrently, China saw interest of over US$27 billion for its bonds. HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) was left off the list of banks arranging China’s sovereign dollar debt sale for the first time since the nation returned with big annual deals in 2017, according to Bloomberg.Market Outlook Time to separate the signals from the noise for bank investors. A sweep of the Senate, House and Presidency by the Democratic Party may be met with higher long-term interest rates on spending concerns. Although stimulus may be positive for US risk assets, higher long-term rates may not be emerging market friendly. However, a rise in long-term rates may be tempered by the return of US Treasuries as a favored carry-trade option and by more targeted Federal Reserve asset purchase program operations. Eventual reflation is bank credit and equity positive, getting to reflation is not.

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Pause as China Evergrande Impacts Asia Sentiment

India

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

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Indusind Bank (IIB IN)

Asia Ex-Japan Financials: Long Drop

Allocations in Financial stocks drop to all-time lows in Asia Ex-Japan active funds. Financials now key underweight holding, led by selling in the...

Steven Holden

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Surprisingly Strong Performance

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK: Surprise, Surprise, Surprise. Both Credit Metrics and Ne Interest Income Improves As Risk Substantially Declines

Thomas J. Monaco

Kotak + IndusInd = Happy IndusInd Bondholders; Move to Overweight

IndusInd bondholders would greatly welcome advances by Kotak Mahindra Bank. Trading at a discount to Bank of Baroda's and Canara Bank’s securities,...

Hank Calenti, CFA

HDFC Bank – Not A Great Quarter

HDFC Bank: Improved Bottom-line Clouded By Supreme Court Ruling On Credit Quality Calculations. Reserve Cover Lower Than On/Off Balance Sheet Risk...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Credit Weekly: Risk Pause as China Evergrande Impacts Asia Sentiment

A must-read on US$-risk sentiment derived from high yield and equity markets, interest rates, dollar levels, capital flows and issuance to frame...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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