ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A conversation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat (ISAT IJ) </a>managment revealed a stabilisation in the pricing environment following Telkomsel's recent data price hikes and a more positive outlook for 2025 with market consolidation. </li>
<li>2025 will see the four-player market move to a three-player market which should be positive for data pricing following the XL/FREN merger, with ex-Java expansion also potentially boosting ISAT ARPUs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat</a>'s move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp</a>'s GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in 2025. Valuation remains appealing.</li>
</ul>


A conversation with Indosat (ISAT IJ) managment revealed a stabilisation in the pricing environment following Telkomsel's recent data price hikes and a more positive outlook for 2025 with market consolidation. 
2025 will see the four-player market move to a three-player market which should be positive for data pricing following the XL/FREN merger, with ex-Java expansion also potentially boosting ISAT ARPUs. 

Indosat's move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing NVIDIA Corp's GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in 2025. Valuation remains appealing.


Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>IOH establishes another distribution layer with Indosat retailers to transition away from low ARPU to high ARPU potential users in ex-Java.</li><li>IOH implements 5-9% price hikesto maintain revenue resilience in 2H24 while it anticipates the sector to recover by 1Q25.</li><li>We maintain our BUY rating on IOH (TP: Rp13,300), implying premium valuation driven by growth from IOH's expanding distribution.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IOH establishes another distribution layer with Indosat retailers to transition away from low ARPU to high ARPU potential users in ex-Java.IOH implements 5-9% price hikesto maintain revenue resilience in 2H24 while it anticipates the sector to recover by 1Q25.We maintain our BUY rating on IOH (TP: Rp13,300), implying premium valuation driven by growth from IOH's expanding distribution.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ISAT IJ -  Aggressive Distribution Fuels Future Growth...

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat (ISAT IJ)</a> remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with the growing use of AI tools. </li>
<li>The company also seeks to become an AI Native Telco whilst also pursuing a separate AI business through its tie-up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, and building a data centre edge through BDx.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a> is also optimistic about its home broadband business projecting 2m subscribers by 2028. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers, especially given ISAT's growth outlook. </li>
</ul>



Indosat (ISAT IJ) remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with the growing use of AI tools. 
The company also seeks to become an AI Native Telco whilst also pursuing a separate AI business through its tie-up with NVIDIA, and building a data centre edge through BDx.

Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ) is also optimistic about its home broadband business projecting 2m subscribers by 2028. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers, especially given ISAT's growth outlook. 


Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Streaming Ahead with AI

<ul><li>IOH’s solid 1H24 net profit of Rp2.73tr (+43% yoy) was in line, driven by 2Q24 margin expansion due to revenue growth and leveragesrealization.</li><li>We expect rural area expansion and core network adjustments to unlock EBITDA margin expansion by &lt;200bps in the next two quarters.</li><li>We keep our forecast and TP of Rp13,300 unchanged and reaffirm our Buy rating on intact robust earnings growth.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

IOH’s solid 1H24 net profit of Rp2.73tr (+43% yoy) was in line, driven by 2Q24 margin expansion due to revenue growth and leveragesrealization.We expect rural area expansion and core network adjustments to unlock EBITDA margin expansion by &lt;200bps in the next two quarters.We keep our forecast and TP of Rp13,300 unchanged and reaffirm our Buy rating on intact robust earnings growth.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison - Solid 1H24 Earnings (Inline)

Indonesia

PT Indosat Tbk is a telecommunication and information service provider in Indonesia that provides cellular services (prepaid and postpaid), fixed data services or MIDI (Multimedia, Internet & Data Communication) and fixed voice services including fixed wireless access services.

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Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)

Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Rising ARPUs with an AI Twist

Indosat's move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing NVIDIA Corp's GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

ISAT IJ - Aggressive Distribution Fuels Future Growth...

IOH establishes another distribution layer with Indosat retailers to transition away from low ARPU to high ARPU potential users in ex-Java.

BRI Danareksa Research

Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Streaming Ahead with AI

Indosat remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with...

Angus Mackintosh

Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison - Solid 1H24 Earnings (Inline)

IOH’s solid 1H24 net profit of Rp2.73tr (+43% yoy) was in line, driven by 2Q24 margin expansion due to revenue growth and leveragesrealization.

BRI Danareksa Research

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