CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Strong net profit momentum, low correlation with Western stock markets, and cheap on a gross profit basis relative to its sector</li><li>Scope for profit upside due to upcoming M&amp;A deals and IVL’s track record of mostly acquiring discounted assets, as recently seen from the gains on bargain purchases of BP Amoco and Cepsa Spain in 1H16</li><li>Focus on integration of bought assets; acquisitions have focused on controlling cost of inputs and diversifying output to high-value-added products, moving away from being a commoditized business</li><li>Attractive at 16CE* 0.25 PEG ratio versus ASEAN Materials at 1.6</li><li>Risks: High volatility of spreads likely to affect earnings abruptly</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

Strong net profit momentum, low correlation with Western stock markets, and cheap on a gross profit basis relative to its sectorScope for profit upside due to upcoming M&amp;A deals and IVL’s track record of mostly acquiring discounted assets, as recently seen from the gains on bargain purchases of BP Amoco and Cepsa Spain in 1H16Focus on integration of bought assets; acquisitions have focused on controlling cost of inputs and diversifying output to high-value-added products, moving away from being a commoditized businessAttractive at 16CE* 0.25 PEG ratio versus ASEAN Materials at 1.6Risks: High volatility of spreads likely to affect earnings abruptly* Consensus Estimates

IVL: Plastics Giant Shores up Bargain Acquisitions

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Europe was our long over the US but we locked in Eurostoxx 50 gains Friday but kept our bank long. We locked in Nikkei gains as well.USD – SPX correlation implies the Euro is rising in anticipation of an S&amp;P top. A stronger Euro will sap strength from European equities.We squared long dollar positions on March 1-2 to lock in gains (GBP and KRW), took a 1% loss in the AUD. SGD hit our 1.3980 trailing stop (1.39 SGD short).Delve into Euro/GBP topping process and the LT Euro bias toward sub parity. AUD, copper and oil bull positioning our core theme in coming weeks.Emerging markets are out performing given the weaker dollar call and strong metals/energy bias which is our March risk on focus. We see more strength in this play into late March while DM’s will peak mid-March. Our base called for a risk on cycle from February 11 into March. April may very well see a sideways grind before the next major down leg into the summer months where we see a major buying opportunity.EEM is cruising past our 32 target amid a weaker USD and fear of missing an EM rise. Our theme has been to buy energy and materials plays on the back of WTI’s move above 34 and copper’s explosive breakout above 214 targeting 238 (then the EM rally will be complete). Copper’s move above 214 was the game changer and why we placed so much importance on that level.Asia longs: Sold Nikkei at 17,000 for a 7% gain. Buy Japan energy and steel sectors on a dip. Long India banks (up a nice 13.50%). Long energy/materials theme (BHP, FCX). Buying H shares on a dip. Copper rally is bullish for China/HK. Taiwan add support at 8,400. Indonesia rally from buy support at 4,650 targets 4,950. Korea buy support at 236-237.Asia shorts: Thailand at 1,340 and looking to add. Will re short Malaysia once the MYR hits 4.05.Cycle – March 8th is a slated turn date for gold and equities but may be part of a bigger equity topping sequence that unfolds into mid-March with EM’s and commodity themes running higher into April (which represents a bigger turn cycle).

Europe was our long over the US but we locked in Eurostoxx 50 gains Friday but kept our bank long. We locked in Nikkei gains as well.USD – SPX correlation implies the Euro is rising in anticipation of an S&amp;P top. A stronger Euro will sap strength from European equities.We squared long dollar positions on March 1-2 to lock in gains (GBP and KRW), took a 1% loss in the AUD. SGD hit our 1.3980 trailing stop (1.39 SGD short).Delve into Euro/GBP topping process and the LT Euro bias toward sub parity. AUD, copper and oil bull positioning our core theme in coming weeks.Emerging markets are out performing given the weaker dollar call and strong metals/energy bias which is our March risk on focus. We see more strength in this play into late March while DM’s will peak mid-March. Our base called for a risk on cycle from February 11 into March. April may very well see a sideways grind before the next major down leg into the summer months where we see a major buying opportunity.EEM is cruising past our 32 target amid a weaker USD and fear of missing an EM rise. Our theme has been to buy energy and materials plays on the back of WTI’s move above 34 and copper’s explosive breakout above 214 targeting 238 (then the EM rally will be complete). Copper’s move above 214 was the game changer and why we placed so much importance on that level.Asia longs: Sold Nikkei at 17,000 for a 7% gain. Buy Japan energy and steel sectors on a dip. Long India banks (up a nice 13.50%). Long energy/materials theme (BHP, FCX). Buying H shares on a dip. Copper rally is bullish for China/HK. Taiwan add support at 8,400. Indonesia rally from buy support at 4,650 targets 4,950. Korea buy support at 236-237.Asia shorts: Thailand at 1,340 and looking to add. Will re short Malaysia once the MYR hits 4.05.Cycle – March 8th is a slated turn date for gold and equities but may be part of a bigger equity topping sequence that unfolds into mid-March with EM’s and commodity themes running higher into April (which represents a bigger turn cycle).

Thailand

Indorama Ventures PCL manufactures and distributes polyethylene terephthalate ("PET"), purified terephthalic acid ("PTA") and related products, polyester fibers and yarns, and wool products.

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Indorama Ventures (IVL TB)

IVL: Plastics Giant Shores up Bargain Acquisitions

Strong net profit momentum, low correlation with Western stock markets, and cheap on a gross profit basis relative to its sector Scope for profit...

A. Stotz Investment Research

March DM Dip/Peak as EM's/Copper Perform

Europe was our long over the US but we locked in Eurostoxx 50 gains Friday but kept our bank long. We locked in Nikkei gains as well.USD – SPX...

Thomas Schroeder

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