External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Highlights: GLOBAL US inflation remained moderate in July</li><li>China’s economy is faltering: trade slumps and fears of deflation grow</li><li>The UK economy rises at an unexpectedly fast rate</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Highlights: GLOBAL US inflation remained moderate in JulyChina’s economy is faltering: trade slumps and fears of deflation growThe UK economy rises at an unexpectedly fast rateContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 15, 2023

<ul>
<li>US inflation remained moderate in July US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY.</li>
<li>Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.</li>
<li>The last reading marked the first acceleration in 13 months, followed a 3.0% in June 2023. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


US inflation remained moderate in July US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY.
Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.
The last reading marked the first acceleration in 13 months, followed a 3.0% in June 2023. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research - Weekly Report (August 15, 2023)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge in asset prices, with UST yields falling to 4.57% and the DXY to 105.</li><li>Growth risk stands to dominate going forward rather than concerns on rising interest rates, and this will drive more fiscal spending, we believe.</li><li>Both INDOGB and the JCI finally saw the return of foreign inflows, with the IDR enjoying some support.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge in asset prices, with UST yields falling to 4.57% and the DXY to 105.Growth risk stands to dominate going forward rather than concerns on rising interest rates, and this will drive more fiscal spending, we believe.Both INDOGB and the JCI finally saw the return of foreign inflows, with the IDR enjoying some support.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>3Q23 results recap: growth recovered, but negative surprises prevailed</li><li>The market’s overall earnings improved in 3Q23 with operating profits growth rebounding to -4% yoy/+13% yoy ex-mining vs. 2Q23’s -6%/+11% yoy, hence driving 9M23 growth to -5% yoy/ +5% ex-mining (based on our coverage universe that has reported results).</li><li>While the 9M23 earnings were also broadly in-line with expectations (53%/ 43% of the companies’ results were in-line with our FY23F/the consensus), surprises skewed to the downside with 28%/ 34% missing (vs. 19%/23% beating estimates). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q23 results recap: growth recovered, but negative surprises prevailedThe market’s overall earnings improved in 3Q23 with operating profits growth rebounding to -4% yoy/+13% yoy ex-mining vs. 2Q23’s -6%/+11% yoy, hence driving 9M23 growth to -5% yoy/ +5% ex-mining (based on our coverage universe that has reported results).While the 9M23 earnings were also broadly in-line with expectations (53%/ 43% of the companies’ results were in-line with our FY23F/the consensus), surprises skewed to the downside with 28%/ 34% missing (vs. 19%/23% beating estimates). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: 3Q23 EPS growth improved, expect more growth catalysts in 4Q23

<ul><li>Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised the market by increasing its BI7DRR to 6.0%, a 25 basis point rise.</li><li>This decision was unexpected, going against both our and consensus predictions of a stable policy rate.</li><li>Such move was taken as a proactive step to response to the ongoing vulnerability of the IDR. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bank Indonesia (BI) surprised the market by increasing its BI7DRR to 6.0%, a 25 basis point rise.This decision was unexpected, going against both our and consensus predictions of a stable policy rate.Such move was taken as a proactive step to response to the ongoing vulnerability of the IDR. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy -  Unprecedented Rate Hike: Pre-Emptive Measure

Indonesia 10Y (GIDR10YR INDEX)

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 15, 2023

US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY. Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research - Weekly Report (August 15, 2023)

US inflation remained moderate in July US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY. Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM,...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: Renewed Interest

A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge...

BRI Danareksa Research

Equity Strategy: 3Q23 EPS growth improved, expect more growth catalysts in 4Q23

The market’s overall earnings improved in 3Q23 with operating profits growth rebounding to -4% yoy/+13% yoy ex-mining vs. 2Q23’s -6%/+11% yoy

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy - Unprecedented Rate Hike: Pre-Emptive Measure

This decision was unexpected, going against both our and consensus predictions of a stable policy rate. Such move was taken as a proactive step to...

BRI Danareksa Research