Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss the 2018 results for Asian (ex-India) companies under our coverage, including whether or not they performed in line with our expectations. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

   In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss the 2018 results for Asian (ex-India) companies under our coverage, including whether or not they performed in line with our expectations.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - 2018 Results Overview (Ex-India) - Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Indika Energy's Q1/19 results were weak, as key business segment? Kideco was affected by both lower selling prices and higher cash costs. The numbers also highlighted the fact that Indika is now largely a coal miner, with its other businesses being too small (vs. Kideco) to provide meaningful diversification. The financial risk profile has deteriorated significantly. However, the company still generated FCF and liquidity is sound. For the rest of FY 2019, we continue to expect a weaker performance amid the challenging coal market. Revenue will largely be driven by coal prices, while Kideco’s volumes may register high single-digit growth. We foresee that profitability will be significantly reduced y-o-y. We expect debt to be stable, given that the USD Notes account for most (85-90%) of Indika's debt. We remain curious as to how the company will make use of its large cash balance, and are even more curious about the drawdown of more loans in Q1. Key credit drivers remain: [1] Chinese policy and other regulatory risks; and [2] acquisition risk, as the cash balance may be applied for further acquisitions.

   Indika Energy's Q1/19 results were weak, as key business segment? Kideco was affected by both lower selling prices and higher cash costs. The numbers also highlighted the fact that Indika is now largely a coal miner, with its other businesses being too small (vs. Kideco) to provide meaningful diversification. The financial risk profile has deteriorated significantly. However, the company still generated FCF and liquidity is sound.    For the rest of FY 2019, we continue to expect a weaker performance amid the challenging coal market. Revenue will largely be driven by coal prices, while Kideco’s volumes may register high single-digit growth. We foresee that profitability will be significantly reduced y-o-y. We expect debt to be stable, given that the USD Notes account for most (85-90%) of Indika's debt. We remain curious as to how the company will make use of its large cash balance, and are even more curious about the drawdown of more loans in Q1.    Key credit drivers remain: [1] Chinese policy and other regulatory risks; and [2] acquisition risk, as the cash balance may be applied for further acquisitions. 

Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

	Asia HY Trade Recommendations - April 2019 - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including contracted sales trends, regulatory actions and financing conditions. We also broadly comment on the FY 2018 results for developers under our coverage.  The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

   In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including contracted sales trends, regulatory actions and financing conditions. We also broadly comment on the FY 2018 results for developers under our coverage.     The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - China Property Update - Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar. 

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 01 Apr 2019

Indonesia

PT Indika Energy Tbk is an energy company. The Company provides energy services, energy resources and infrastructure, primarily in the areas of coal production, engineering, procurement and construction services and power generation services.

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Indika Energy (INDY IJ)

Asia HY Monthly - 2018 Results Overview (Ex-India) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we discuss the 2018 results for Asian (ex-India) companies under our coverage, including whether or not they...

Lucror Analytics

Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - Q1 FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Indika Energy's Q1/19 results were weak, as key business segment? Kideco was affected by both lower selling prices and higher cash costs. The...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - April 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for April includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - China Property Update - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Chinese property sector, including contracted sales trends, regulatory actions...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia - 01 Apr 2019

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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