Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> ends 31 January. We see 2 potential changes at the rebalance which should be announced end February.</li>
<li>There is a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>, while there is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd</a>.</li>
<li>The impact on the stocks is between 3-9 days of ADV, while the impact increases to between 9-22 days of delivery volume.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) ends 31 January. We see 2 potential changes at the rebalance which should be announced end February.
There is a high probability of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (APHS IN) replacing Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN), while there is a lower probability of Info Edge India replacing Coal India Ltd.
The impact on the stocks is between 3-9 days of ADV, while the impact increases to between 9-22 days of delivery volume.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

Apollo Hospitals Enterprise / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-hospitals-enterprise" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:880:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Hospitals (APHS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge (INFOE)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil (IOCL)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India (COAL)</a> in the NIFTY50.</li>
<li>The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.</li>
<li>The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.</li>
</ul>


Nearly three-quarters of the way through the review period, we see Apollo Hospitals (APHS) and Info Edge (INFOE) replacing Indian Oil (IOCL) and Coal India (COAL) in the NIFTY50.
The inclusion of Apollo Hospitals and deletion of IOC is a high probability event, while the inclusion of Info Edge and deletion of Coal India is a lower probability event.
The impact in terms of ADV to trade on the stocks is quite large and that increases further once we consider the impact in terms of delivery volumes.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.</p>

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<p>Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.</p>

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), SMC Global

SMC Online

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Indian Oil Corporation consolidated net sales increased 90.82% to Rs 115502.51 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Sales of Petroleum Products segment has gone up 74.83% to Rs 1,50,058.43 crore (accounting for 93.79% of total sales). Sales of Other Business Activities segment rose 92.40% to Rs 4,113.31 crore (accounting for 2.57% of total sales). Sales of...</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Indian Oil Corporation consolidated net sales increased 90.82% to Rs 115502.51 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Sales of Petroleum Products segment has gone up 74.83% to Rs 1,50,058.43 crore (accounting for 93.79% of total sales). Sales of Other Business Activities segment rose 92.40% to Rs 4,113.31 crore (accounting for 2.57% of total sales). Sales of...
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Oil Corporation: Inventory Gains and Better Petrochemical Margins Boost Profit

India

Indian Oil Corporation Limited explores for and refines crude oil, in addition to manufacturing petroleum & petroleum products. The Company's products include lubricating oils, liquid petroleum gas, aviation turbine fuels, greases, wax, bitumen and asphalt. Indian Oil Corporation has retail outlets throughout India. The greatest majority shareholding in the Company is held by Indian Government.

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Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

There is a high probability of Apollo Hosp replacing Indian Oil in the NIFTY Index at the March rebalance. There is a lower probability of Info...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Apollo Hospitals & Info Edge in the Zone to Replace IOC and COAL

High probability changes are inclusion of Apollo Hospitals & deletion of IOCL, while there is a lower probability of Info Edge being added & COAL...

Brian Freitas

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Continued rising rates is likely to support value Sectors moving forward (especially Financials and Energy), and it also typically indicates...

Vermilion Research

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Indian Oil Corporation: Inventory Gains and Better Petrochemical Margins Boost Profit

Indian Oil Corporation consolidated net sales increased 90.82% to Rs 115502.51 crore in Q1FY22 compared to Q1FY21. Sales of Petroleum Products...

SMC Online

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52-week Range

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