Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Average loan growth for India's banks is now at unprecedented low levels: 0.3% as at December 2016 compared with March 2016. The figures have been coming down for some time, and suggest to that the cycle remains poor. Economists like to argue about loan growth begetting GDP growth, or GDP growth begetting loan growth; it’s probably a bit of both depending on where we are in the cycle. But the reality is that companies are not getting credit, with demand a more likely driver than supply.India…

Average loan growth for India's banks is now at unprecedented low levels: 0.3% as at December 2016 compared with March 2016. The figures have been coming down for some time, and suggest to that the cycle remains poor. Economists like to argue about loan growth begetting GDP growth, or GDP growth begetting loan growth; it’s probably a bit of both depending on where we are in the cycle. But the reality is that companies are not getting credit, with demand a more likely driver than supply.India…

Dena Bank is a small PSU bank, at a similar size to better-known YES Bank. Dena Bank received a central bank capital injection a few months ago. And yet, it is coming to the market again for more capital. For anybody thinking that the NPL cycle has run its course in India, it's not the case. Of course, it isn’t only Dena Bank or PSU banks that are of concern; recent NPL formation at several private banks is also worrisome. India’s banks remain well entrenched in a nasty NPL cycle. Where some may…

Dena Bank is a small PSU bank, at a similar size to better-known YES Bank. Dena Bank received a central bank capital injection a few months ago. And yet, it is coming to the market again for more capital. For anybody thinking that the NPL cycle has run its course in India, it's not the case. Of course, it isn’t only Dena Bank or PSU banks that are of concern; recent NPL formation at several private banks is also worrisome. India’s banks remain well entrenched in a nasty NPL cycle. Where some may…

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

The deregulation of India’s life insurance industry in 2000 and the eventual direct listing of private life insurance companies, with ICICI Prudential Life being the first, offer opportunities for investors requiring exposure to this sector in India.  Increasing penetration, enhancing long-term savings and mobilizing much-needed investments for infrastructure were expected to be the outcomes from such a policy. The liberalization process transformed the infrastructure sector from a low risk, public sector asset to a high-risk investment and introduced high volatility in penetration as insurance companies became stock market players and exposed policy holders to the vagaries of the capital market.For those interested in conventional life insurance companies, they may have to wait indefinitely for the listing of the government-owned Life Insurance Corporation as many private sector insurance companies have adopted a mutual fund model.   In the alternative, they may consider some of the companies less exposed to the capital market  and may have to wait for the eventual listing of HDFC-Max Life, Bajaj Life and Birla Sun Life.

The deregulation of India’s life insurance industry in 2000 and the eventual direct listing of private life insurance companies, with ICICI Prudential Life being the first, offer opportunities for investors requiring exposure to this sector in India.  Increasing penetration, enhancing long-term savings and mobilizing much-needed investments for infrastructure were expected to be the outcomes from such a policy. The liberalization process transformed the infrastructure sector from a low risk, public sector asset to a high-risk investment and introduced high volatility in penetration as insurance companies became stock market players and exposed policy holders to the vagaries of the capital market.For those interested in conventional life insurance companies, they may have to wait indefinitely for the listing of the government-owned Life Insurance Corporation as many private sector insurance companies have adopted a mutual fund model.   In the alternative, they may consider some of the companies less exposed to the capital market  and may have to wait for the eventual listing of HDFC-Max Life, Bajaj Life and Birla Sun Life.

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Banking sector results in this quarter have been pretty much a mixed bag with SoE banks (also referred to as PSU or public sector banks) along with large private sector banks ( ICICI) recording weak business growth and rise in NPA ratio while retail-focused private sector banks (Yes bank, IndusInd) continuing to outperform in growth and asset quality. Across the board rally in the banks with strong moves in SOE banks , therefore comes as a surprise. From the lows recorded in Feb/Mar, PSU banks…

Banking sector results in this quarter have been pretty much a mixed bag with SoE banks (also referred to as PSU or public sector banks) along with large private sector banks ( ICICI) recording weak business growth and rise in NPA ratio while retail-focused private sector banks (Yes bank, IndusInd) continuing to outperform in growth and asset quality. Across the board rally in the banks with strong moves in SOE banks , therefore comes as a surprise. From the lows recorded in Feb/Mar, PSU banks…

Indian Banks: Wary of SoE Bank Rally; Keep Focus on Retail Lenders as Consumer Credit Booms

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear to us, how the government can miscalculate by such a magnitude. For four state banks, the proposed capital injection is only 0.3% of assets! Our analysis below focuses on the four state banks where we have complete details, while the overall government capital injection package is for INR229 billion for 13 PSU banks.New proposed government capital as…

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear to us, how the government can miscalculate by such a magnitude. For four state banks, the proposed capital injection is only 0.3% of assets! Our analysis below focuses on the four state banks where we have complete details, while the overall government capital injection package is for INR229 billion for 13 PSU banks.New proposed government capital as…

New Capital for India's Banks: Microscopic

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ICRA Limited provides investment information and credit rating services in India.

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Icra Ltd (ICRA IN)

Cratering Loan Growth in India

Average loan growth for India's banks is now at unprecedented low levels: 0.3% as at December 2016 compared with March 2016. The figures have been...

Daniel Tabbush

India's Dramatic NPL Acceleration

Dena Bank is a small PSU bank, at a similar size to better-known YES Bank. Dena Bank received a central bank capital injection a few months ago....

Daniel Tabbush

Life Insurance: License for a Casino

The deregulation of India’s life insurance industry in 2000 and the eventual direct listing of private life insurance companies, with ICICI...

Hemindra Hazari

Indian Banks: Wary of SoE Bank Rally; Keep Focus on Retail Lenders as Consumer Credit Booms

Banking sector results in this quarter have been pretty much a mixed bag with SoE banks (also referred to as PSU or public sector banks) along with...

Asia Advisors

New Capital for India's Banks: Microscopic

The government’s capital injection for India’s state banks is miniscule compared with what they may need. The data is not hidden, so it is unclear...

Daniel Tabbush

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