Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-June 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends were mixed</li>
<li>The key positive trend to end-June was the declining cost of risk, boosting post-provision profitability; nonetheless, the prospect of worsening delinquency could drive a reversal in NPA provision charges</li>
<li>We believe HDFC Bank can best face credit quality deterioration; optically cheap State Bank of India is exposed to higher provisioning needs, as is ICICI Bank</li>
</ul>


Our profitability and credit quality screens, in terms of credit quality metrics to end-June 2022, continued in a constructive vein, although pre-provision profitability trends were mixed
The key positive trend to end-June was the declining cost of risk, boosting post-provision profitability; nonetheless, the prospect of worsening delinquency could drive a reversal in NPA provision charges
We believe HDFC Bank can best face credit quality deterioration; optically cheap State Bank of India is exposed to higher provisioning needs, as is ICICI Bank


Indian Banks Screener: Credit Quality Turning?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Typically net interest margins and loan volume are what matter most for banks</li>
<li>ICICI is showing strength in both core financial metrics, but also in credit costs</li>
<li>Of the large 3 banks in India, ICICI may continue to show the best marginal deltaCI</li>
</ul>


Typically net interest margins and loan volume are what matter most for banks
ICICI is showing strength in both core financial metrics, but also in credit costs
Of the large 3 banks in India, ICICI may continue to show the best marginal deltaCI


Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> actively covered by a large number of analysts</li>
<li>Significant issues of regulatory penalties on Kotak Bank subsidiary &amp; major theft in a currency chest of ICICI Bank. No clarification from both banks</li>
<li>Instead of demanding explanations from the banks during the 1Q concalls, media and analysts chose to remain silent</li>
</ul>



ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) &amp; Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) actively covered by a large number of analysts
Significant issues of regulatory penalties on Kotak Bank subsidiary &amp; major theft in a currency chest of ICICI Bank. No clarification from both banks
Instead of demanding explanations from the banks during the 1Q concalls, media and analysts chose to remain silent


ICICI Bank, KMB Q1 Conferences: Media and Analysts’ Silence Is Not Golden for Stakeholders

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

LG Energy Solution / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>There were no major IPO launches during the week. Thai Life will list early next week</li>
<li>There were no major placements apart from ANZ and a smallish one in Xtep. There are two major lock-up expiries coming up.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
There were no major IPO launches during the week. Thai Life will list early next week
There were no major placements apart from ANZ and a smallish one in Xtep. There are two major lock-up expiries coming up.


ECM Weekly (24th Jul 2022) - ANZ, Zomato, LG Energy, Xtep, SoCar, WCP, Thai Life, Beneunder, Ubox

<ul>
<li>Major theft of Rs 342 mn ($4.3mn) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)</a> 's currency chest near Mumbai</li>
<li>Apparently a single ICICI Bank staff responsible and shockingly had sole access to the currency chest </li>
<li>Reflects extremely poorly on ICICI Bank's currency chest security protocols and processes and heightens concerns of reputational and operational risk at the bank</li>
</ul>


Major theft of Rs 342 mn ($4.3mn) in ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN) 's currency chest near Mumbai
Apparently a single ICICI Bank staff responsible and shockingly had sole access to the currency chest 
Reflects extremely poorly on ICICI Bank's currency chest security protocols and processes and heightens concerns of reputational and operational risk at the bank


Major Theft in ICICI Bank’s Currency Chest Heightens Concerns of Poor Controls

India

ICICI Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Bank offers saving accounts, loans, debit, credit cards, insurance, investments, mortgages, and online banking services. ICICI Bank serves customers worldwide.

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ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)

Indian Banks Screener: Credit Quality Turning?

Indian bank showed broadly positive results to 1QFY23; yet we believe that the credit quality cycle may soon turn; rising delinquency will hit SBI...

Victor Galliano

India Banks - Solid Strength at ICICI

There are vast differences amongst the largest 3 banks in India, that favor ICICI. Margin expansion, LDR expansion, net interest income growth, and...

Daniel Tabbush

ICICI Bank, KMB Q1 Conferences: Media and Analysts’ Silence Is Not Golden for Stakeholders

When analysts refuse to probe banks based on facts what primary investigation or in-depth critical research can they undertake? A pack of guard...

Hemindra Hazari

ECM Weekly (24th Jul 2022) - ANZ, Zomato, LG Energy, Xtep, SoCar, WCP, Thai Life, Beneunder, Ubox

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Major Theft in ICICI Bank’s Currency Chest Heightens Concerns of Poor Controls

Major theft at ICICI Bank heightens concerns of poor security protocols reflecting on operational risk management and reputational risk at the bank.

Hemindra Hazari

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