Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Although Japan is not out of the woods in terms of COVID-19 and the vaccine is not yet found, let alone distributed, investors have rushed to own <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tkp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28305:1" rel="noopener"> TKP Corporation (3479 JP)</a> as it was seemingly cheap in terms of PBR. The reality was that COVID-19 economic impact caused a weak earning and a secondary offering that boosted the book value has made the company's PBR looks cheap. TKP is the only one with negative earnings compared to its peers, underlining the economic reality that the company is more exposed to.
TKP's share price has risen more than doubled to some of its peers amidst the tough business outlook. Its peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kenedix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11321:1" rel="noopener">Kenedix Inc (4321 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/katitas-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26073:1" rel="noopener">Katitas Co Ltd (8919 JP)</a> share price rose almost double but their business remains profitable during COVID-19 while TKP's earnings have turned negative. Turned Bearish on TKP on slow business condition improvement and the meteoric share price increase.

Although Japan is not out of the woods in terms of COVID-19 and the vaccine is not yet found, let alone distributed, investors have rushed to own  TKP Corporation (3479 JP) as it was seemingly cheap in terms of PBR. The reality was that COVID-19 economic impact caused a weak earning and a secondary offering that boosted the book value has made the company's PBR looks cheap. TKP is the only one with negative earnings compared to its peers, underlining the economic reality that the company is more exposed to.
TKP's share price has risen more than doubled to some of its peers amidst the tough business outlook. Its peers such as Kenedix Inc (4321 JP) and Katitas Co Ltd (8919 JP) share price rose almost double but their business remains profitable during COVID-19 while TKP's earnings have turned negative. Turned Bearish on TKP on slow business condition improvement and the meteoric share price increase. 

TKP (3479): Slow Recovery yet Share Price Has More than Doubled?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakus-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29200:1" rel="noopener">Rakus (3923 JP)</a> and conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ichigo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11386:1" rel="noopener">Ichigo (2337 JP)</a> <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/315/original/2020-10-15_05-50-54.png?1602708663" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165315"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/165/316/original/2020-10-15_05-48-45.png?1602708676" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="165316"></figure></section><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div>DAILY STATS</div><hr><div>58 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Results Score: 41% Positive / 10% Neutral / 48% Negative</li>
<li>Average Results Score Change: -0.5 points</li>
<li>Average % Change in Revenue: -14.5% Quarter YoY / -8.6% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.9ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div>33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 48% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 40% Positive / 20% Neutral / 40% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.0 point</li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP) Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS58 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 41% Positive / 10% Neutral / 48% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.5 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -14.5% Quarter YoY / -8.6% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -3.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
33 Annual • 10 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 48% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 40% Positive / 20% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.0 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/316/original/2020-04-17_05-50-08.png?1587070274" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128316"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • @mirais_y_akai</div>CHANGE OF TACK - Many world leaders including President Trump, Boris Johnson and even Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of Sweden have seen surges in their approval ratings almost irrespective of their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Abe has struggled, and his public support and approval ratings for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are falling away.<ul>
<li>Abe has been derided for his two-mask policy, and the early recipients are claiming they are too small and shrink in when washed.</li>
<li>A PR video of the Prime Minister lounging at home with his dog was mocked, while the accompanying video of a singer was used without permission.</li>
<li>The declaration of a state of emergency in only seven prefectures has resulted in some internal migration which has spread the virus to other parts of Japan and, for example, pachinko addicts crossed from Tokyo into Chiba to play.</li>
<li>Lastly, the plan outlined in the COVID-19 supplementary budget to give needy households ¥300,000 has had to be withdrawn at the last minute in favour an immediate cash handout of ¥100,000 to all, irrespective of means or circumstance at a cost of ¥12 trillion.</li>
</ul>NATIONWIDE - Although both the number of confirmed cases and fatalities are not increasing exponentially and a lower than one week ago, Abe has decided to reclaim the initiative by announcing a nationwide state of emergency with effect from today to last until the end of the Golden Week holidays on 6th May. This period will cover ten working days. Each prefecture will determine the extent and implementation of restrictions on movement. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/317/original/2020-04-16_19-53-56.png?1587072129" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128317"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Apple/Japan Analytics</div>ROADMAPS - Apple's excellent mobility trend <a href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> provide are a useful tool in assessing the responses to COVID-19 and their potential impact on economies. We have focused on driving mobility as the better proxy for overall economic activity and smoothed the weekends by using a seven-day rolling average. Even within Asia, there apparent differences between Japan and Taiwan compared to South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Within Europe, the Nordic countries have seen much lower reductions than Spain or Italy. Countries with the most moderate mobility reductions should see the least-damaging economic consequences and are less likely to experience a debilitating 'second-wave.PREVENTION STRATEGIES - An interesting recent non-peer reviewed <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">paper</a> by German epidemiologist  Dr Knut Wittkowski suggests that while "lockdowns can be effective during the month following the peak incidence in infections.. earlier containment of low-risk people merely prolongs the time the virus needs to circulate until the incidence is high enough to initiate herd immunity. Later containment is not helpful unless to prevent a rebound if containment started too early." His modelling graphs three scenarios:-<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/318/original/2020-04-17_06-44-50.png?1587073534" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128318"></figure>I: NO INTERVENTIONS = HERD IMMUNITY<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/319/original/2020-04-17_06-47-49.png?1587073689" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128319"></figure>II: PHASED INTERVENTION = LOWER FATALITIES BUT LOWER IMMUNITY<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/320/original/2020-04-17_06-49-36.png?1587073790" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128320"></figure>III: EARLY LOCKDOWN = GREATER ECONOMIC COLLATERAL DAMAGE &amp; HIGHER FATALITIES THAN CASE II + HERD IMMUNITY DELAYED BY NINE MONTHSDr Wittkowski concludes: "It is herd immunity that stops the spread of infectious disease, so, in general, one would want to let the epidemic initially run its natural course or even accelerate it...to build immunity as fast as possible. If the aim were to reduce the duration of the epidemic and its impact on the economy (and also increase the time until the next epidemic can spread), one would wait until the prevalence of infectious people reaches its peak - day 83 in the middle graph above." Japan may, more perhaps by accident than design, be following the II: Phased Intervention model above. By having avoided an early lockdown, the country may also be spared an economic catastrophe.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/321/original/2020-04-17_07-28-23.png?1587076129" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128321"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/322/original/2020-04-17_07-29-01.png?1587076173" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128322"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>BOJ SMALL CAP BOOSTER - The Bank of Japan added to its holdings of TOPIX ETFs again yesterday and was 5.42% of TOPIX Value Traded. Their interventions are supporting TOPIX Small, which is beginning to recovery in terms of the TOPIX Small/TOPIX ratio. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the two results was 2:0:0; and for the 12 revisions/forecasts, the split was 3:1:8. Leisure business <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujita-kanko-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8847:1" rel="noopener">Fujita Kanko (9722 JP)</a> withdrew its forecast for this December year-end.

Source • @mirais_y_akaiCHANGE OF TACK - Many world leaders including President Trump, Boris Johnson and even Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of Sweden have seen surges in their approval ratings almost irrespective of their handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Abe has struggled, and his public support and approval ratings for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are falling away.
Abe has been derided for his two-mask policy, and the early recipients are claiming they are too small and shrink in when washed.
A PR video of the Prime Minister lounging at home with his dog was mocked, while the accompanying video of a singer was used without permission.
The declaration of a state of emergency in only seven prefectures has resulted in some internal migration which has spread the virus to other parts of Japan and, for example, pachinko addicts crossed from Tokyo into Chiba to play.
Lastly, the plan outlined in the COVID-19 supplementary budget to give needy households ¥300,000 has had to be withdrawn at the last minute in favour an immediate cash handout of ¥100,000 to all, irrespective of means or circumstance at a cost of ¥12 trillion.
NATIONWIDE - Although both the number of confirmed cases and fatalities are not increasing exponentially and a lower than one week ago, Abe has decided to reclaim the initiative by announcing a nationwide state of emergency with effect from today to last until the end of the Golden Week holidays on 6th May. This period will cover ten working days. Each prefecture will determine the extent and implementation of restrictions on movement. Source • Apple/Japan AnalyticsROADMAPS - Apple's excellent mobility trend reports provide are a useful tool in assessing the responses to COVID-19 and their potential impact on economies. We have focused on driving mobility as the better proxy for overall economic activity and smoothed the weekends by using a seven-day rolling average. Even within Asia, there apparent differences between Japan and Taiwan compared to South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Within Europe, the Nordic countries have seen much lower reductions than Spain or Italy. Countries with the most moderate mobility reductions should see the least-damaging economic consequences and are less likely to experience a debilitating 'second-wave.PREVENTION STRATEGIES - An interesting recent non-peer reviewed paper by German epidemiologist  Dr Knut Wittkowski suggests that while "lockdowns can be effective during the month following the peak incidence in infections.. earlier containment of low-risk people merely prolongs the time the virus needs to circulate until the incidence is high enough to initiate herd immunity. Later containment is not helpful unless to prevent a rebound if containment started too early." His modelling graphs three scenarios:-I: NO INTERVENTIONS = HERD IMMUNITYII: PHASED INTERVENTION = LOWER FATALITIES BUT LOWER IMMUNITYIII: EARLY LOCKDOWN = GREATER ECONOMIC COLLATERAL DAMAGE &amp; HIGHER FATALITIES THAN CASE II + HERD IMMUNITY DELAYED BY NINE MONTHSDr Wittkowski concludes: "It is herd immunity that stops the spread of infectious disease, so, in general, one would want to let the epidemic initially run its natural course or even accelerate it...to build immunity as fast as possible. If the aim were to reduce the duration of the epidemic and its impact on the economy (and also increase the time until the next epidemic can spread), one would wait until the prevalence of infectious people reaches its peak - day 83 in the middle graph above." Japan may, more perhaps by accident than design, be following the II: Phased Intervention model above. By having avoided an early lockdown, the country may also be spared an economic catastrophe.Source • Japan AnalyticsBOJ SMALL CAP BOOSTER - The Bank of Japan added to its holdings of TOPIX ETFs again yesterday and was 5.42% of TOPIX Value Traded. Their interventions are supporting TOPIX Small, which is beginning to recovery in terms of the TOPIX Small/TOPIX ratio. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday.  The positive/neutral/negative balance for the two results was 2:0:0; and for the 12 revisions/forecasts, the split was 3:1:8. Leisure business Fujita Kanko (9722 JP) withdrew its forecast for this December year-end.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 16th April - Roadmaps

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/111/668/original/image_43774002421577073129098.png?1577073126" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="111668"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source; Capital IQ</div>
In the past, the share price is almost always following analyst recommendation but the most troubling thing about TKP is its high valuation. TKP is not exactly without a competitor in Japan, albeit TKP has the biggest market share. TKP business model is a flexible conference room rental provider in which the management source idle assets in Japan and resell them through the internet started with entrepreneurs and of late to listed corporates as well.
The company's profitability is short of that mind-blowing numbers and it has a massive debt in its balance sheet as well. Does paying 3x more than its peers justify for a conference room rental business with low profitability? 
While investors are happy to pay a premium for its dominant market share in Japan, they should be cautioned if they were to pay the same valuation level for TKP's overseas venture. The flexible working space outside of Japan has been filled with innovative competitors. With a limited success potential for its overseas venture, investors should start to sell/short-sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tkp-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28305:1" rel="noopener"> TKP Corporation (3479 JP)</a> .


Source; Capital IQ
In the past, the share price is almost always following analyst recommendation but the most troubling thing about TKP is its high valuation. TKP is not exactly without a competitor in Japan, albeit TKP has the biggest market share. TKP business model is a flexible conference room rental provider in which the management source idle assets in Japan and resell them through the internet started with entrepreneurs and of late to listed corporates as well.
The company's profitability is short of that mind-blowing numbers and it has a massive debt in its balance sheet as well. Does paying 3x more than its peers justify for a conference room rental business with low profitability? 
While investors are happy to pay a premium for its dominant market share in Japan, they should be cautioned if they were to pay the same valuation level for TKP's overseas venture. The flexible working space outside of Japan has been filled with innovative competitors. With a limited success potential for its overseas venture, investors should start to sell/short-sell  TKP Corporation (3479 JP) .

Japan

Ichigo Inc. is a value-add real estate company. The Company's three key businesses are Value-Add, in which Ichigo acquires and improves mid-sized, prime location real estate, Asset Management including the Ichigo Office REIT (8975), and Clean Energy, in which Ichigo builds and operates solar power plants  on disused land nationwide.

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Ichigo Inc (2337 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP)

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 16th April - Roadmaps

CHANGE OF TACK - Many world leaders including President Trump, Boris Johnson and even Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of Sweden have seen surges in...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Buy the Dips

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in...

Vermilion Research

TKP (3479) - A Working Wework?

In the past, the share price is almost always following analyst recommendation but the most troubling thing about TKP is its high valuation. TKP...

Henry Soediarko

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TKP (3479): Slow Recovery yet Share Price Has More than Doubled?

TKP's share price has risen doubled compared to some of its peers amidst the tough business outlook. Turned Bearish on TKP on slow business...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus

Our best and worst pairing from yesterday's announcements is cloud service provider Rakus (3923 JP) and conglomerate Ichigo (2337 JP)

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 16th April - Roadmaps

CHANGE OF TACK - Many world leaders including President Trump, Boris Johnson and even Prime Minister Stefan Löfven of Sweden have seen surges in...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Buy the Dips

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in...

Vermilion Research

TKP (3479) - A Working Wework?

In the past, the share price is almost always following analyst recommendation but the most troubling thing about TKP is its high valuation. TKP...

Henry Soediarko

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/14 - ABC Mart, USEN-NEXT, Saizeriya, Ichigo, Rakus