Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. </li>
<li>SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. </li>
<li>New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. </li>
</ul>


With a strong 20A/18A team, Intel might take some CPU shares back from AMD to affect TSMC but reduce geopolitical tensions from the US after Intel returning to the best. 
SMIC can use DUV to do 3nm but different from others' because Moore's law is no longer using circuit line width but to use performance, power, density to determine 3nm. 
New fabless industry opportunities are emerging in middle east countries, and south east Asia countries like Vietnam. Despite high cost issues, global expansion will help TSMC to attract global talents. 


A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;</li>
<li>ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;</li>
<li>Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.</li>
</ul>


TSMC's manufacturing value only accounts for 1/4 of H100 HGX bill of materials but HBM3 accounts for more than half;
ABF substrate, SXM5 module, UBB and CCL vendors should be benefited, especially for Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP) on ABF substrate/OAM and Elite Material (2383 TT) on OAM/UBB CCL;
Nvidia AI GPU likely doubling each year in next two years; Our estimates on Nvidia 2025 AI GPU EPS contribution are exceeding Bloomberg consensus earnings estimates, suggesting room to raise.


BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over the last few days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> shares have dipped lower than the previous standard trading range. </li>
<li>I expect this weakness is related to investors in other deals deciding to sell this deal too. I <em>believe</em> it is not related to Shinko specifically.</li>
<li>For that, while gap risk remains somewhat high, I still see break risk as low and see this as a great opportunity to buy the dip.</li>
</ul>


Over the last few days, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) shares have dipped lower than the previous standard trading range. 
I expect this weakness is related to investors in other deals deciding to sell this deal too. I believe it is not related to Shinko specifically.
For that, while gap risk remains somewhat high, I still see break risk as low and see this as a great opportunity to buy the dip.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - THIS Is a Dip to Buy

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>AMAT numbers sends US SPE lower on Friday which should spill over into Japan.</li>
<li>Trump's Energy Secretary nomination may be a short term positive for oil and gas related, longer-term questionable.</li>
<li>Both Ibiden and Renesas have potential to be rerated on their NVDA exposure, but market indifferent so far.</li>
</ul>


AMAT numbers sends US SPE lower on Friday which should spill over into Japan.
Trump's Energy Secretary nomination may be a short term positive for oil and gas related, longer-term questionable.
Both Ibiden and Renesas have potential to be rerated on their NVDA exposure, but market indifferent so far.


Japan Morning Connection: Potential for Ibiden and Renesas to Be Seen as NVDA Plays

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - THIS Is a Dip to Buy

Shinko Electric (6967 has been pushed down 7 days in a row, from ¥5400 to ¥5200. The TSE data for the first four of those 7 days shows >$8mm...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Potential for Ibiden and Renesas to Be Seen as NVDA Plays

AMAT numbers impact US SPE which should effect in Japan, Trump's Energy Secretary nomination may benefit oil/gas short term, Ibiden and Renesas...

Andrew Jackson

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Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions

A R&D Director Dr. Young Was at TSMC, SMIC, and Intel Foundry Shared Views on 3-1nm Competitions. Intel might ramp up its 20A/18A ahead of TSMC 2nm...

Andrew Lu

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

After conducting our in depth bill of materials and CoWoS demand analysis on Nvidia H100 AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, we conclude Bloomberg estimates...

Andrew Lu

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - THIS Is a Dip to Buy

Shinko Electric (6967 has been pushed down 7 days in a row, from ¥5400 to ¥5200. The TSE data for the first four of those 7 days shows >$8mm...

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Potential for Ibiden and Renesas to Be Seen as NVDA Plays

​AMAT numbers impact US SPE which should effect in Japan, Trump's Energy Secretary nomination may benefit oil/gas short term, Ibiden and Renesas...

Andrew Jackson

AMAT numbers impact US SPE which should effect in Japan, Trump's Energy Secretary nomination may benefit oil/gas short term, Ibiden and Renesas...