Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.</li>
<li>Everyone had expected a delay, but the stock fell. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further upset. But Ibiden and tech are rebounding.</li>
<li>At 9% it was a raging buy;post-dip at 7% it was good. Now it's 6+%. Still wide, still interesting, still stable but year-end path dependency... So I still like Ibiden.</li>
</ul>


In August, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.
Everyone had expected a delay, but the stock fell. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further upset. But Ibiden and tech are rebounding.
At 9% it was a raging buy;post-dip at 7% it was good. Now it's 6+%. Still wide, still interesting, still stable but year-end path dependency... So I still like Ibiden.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Still Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sales, profits and the share price are bottoming out and good 1Q results make FY Mar-25 guidance look conservative.</li>
<li>Demand for advanced packaging should drive recovery, with the operating margin regaining its previous peak in three or four years.</li>
<li>Management's long-term guidance implies a decline in the projected P/E ratio from 26x to 10X by FY Mar-28, but even 15x would make the shares an attractive investment.</li>
</ul>


Sales, profits and the share price are bottoming out and good 1Q results make FY Mar-25 guidance look conservative.
Demand for advanced packaging should drive recovery, with the operating margin regaining its previous peak in three or four years.
Management's long-term guidance implies a decline in the projected P/E ratio from 26x to 10X by FY Mar-28, but even 15x would make the shares an attractive investment.


Ibiden (4062 JP): Once Again a Long-Term Buy

<ul>
<li>Late last month, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.</li>
<li>Everyone was expecting a delay, but that caused the stock to fall. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, then China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further delay.</li>
<li>I saw a 9% gross spread yesterday and thought "Geez", that's a buy." A day later, it's 6%. Still wide, still interesting. And that has set a boundary.</li>
</ul>


Late last month, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) announced that the JIC consortium Tender Offer due to be launched by end-August would be delayed. Next update? January 2025.
Everyone was expecting a delay, but that caused the stock to fall. Then tech/AI fell out of bed, Ibiden crashed, then China export restrictions noise/pushback caused further delay.
I saw a 9% gross spread yesterday and thought "Geez", that's a buy." A day later, it's 6%. Still wide, still interesting. And that has set a boundary.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Time To Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Japan is the darling of the moment. To those who haven’t kept track of the story, a series of <a href="https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/follow-up/b5b4pj000004yqcc-att/dreu250000000uqc.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">market reforms in January</a> encourages companies with a price-to-book ratio below one to create a plan to achieve capital efficiency.</li><li>Given that half of the companies at the time were trading below 1x P/B, this is a big deal.</li><li>And this has driven a massive wave of buybacks and changes, leading to the Nikkei finally breaking a 30-year high.</li></ul>

Japan is the darling of the moment. To those who haven’t kept track of the story, a series of market reforms in January encourages companies with a price-to-book ratio below one to create a plan to achieve capital efficiency.Given that half of the companies at the time were trading below 1x P/B, this is a big deal.And this has driven a massive wave of buybacks and changes, leading to the Nikkei finally breaking a 30-year high.

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. </li>
<li>An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.</li>
</ul>


2025 will start with more attractive turnaround opportunities than we have seen in a long time. 
An uptick in TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions makes it suddenly no longer safe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Investors are noticing. More than two-dozen large- and medium-cap stocks with deep discounts to the benchmark began to bounce off well-defined support levels in late December.


Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Still Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

The periodic Shinko Electric Arb Update still says buy dips and again says Ibiden is a buy. Go figure. It's a good risk here. We still have four...

Travis Lundy

Ibiden (4062 JP): Once Again a Long-Term Buy

Sales, profits and the share price appear to have bottomed out, while advanced packaging for Ai processors and CPUs should drive long-term...

Scott Foster

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Time To Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

Shinko hits a multi-month low and a 9% spread, then bounces hard. Tech rebounds. Ibiden is cheaper than it has been in 18mos and has an FX forecast...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Another BSPDN name and some ABF ideas. Not every AI semiconductor stock is actually winning. This edition just so happens to be Japan focused

Fabricated Knowledge

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

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Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Still Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

The periodic Shinko Electric Arb Update still says buy dips and again says Ibiden is a buy. Go figure. It's a good risk here. We still have four...

Travis Lundy

Ibiden (4062 JP): Once Again a Long-Term Buy

Sales, profits and the share price appear to have bottomed out, while advanced packaging for Ai processors and CPUs should drive long-term...

Scott Foster

Shinko Electric (6967 JP) Takeover - Time To Buy Dips, and Ibiden (4062 JP)

Shinko hits a multi-month low and a 9% spread, then bounces hard. Tech rebounds. Ibiden is cheaper than it has been in 18mos and has an FX forecast...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Semiconductor Stocks and AI "Winners" that Ain't So

Another BSPDN name and some ABF ideas. Not every AI semiconductor stock is actually winning. This edition just so happens to be Japan focused

Fabricated Knowledge

Unloved Japan Round Up Jan. 3: Set Up for A Banner Year?

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers​ creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...

Michael Allen

An uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and mergers creating the best environment for deep value turnarounds in a long time. Dozens of discounted stocks started...