Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Its unclear whether Yemen-based Houthis would end attacks after ceasefire</li>
<li>We've entered peak Summer shipping season from Asia to US, Europe</li>
<li>Higher spot rates have already lifted contract rates in Q2 2024</li>
</ul>


Its unclear whether Yemen-based Houthis would end attacks after ceasefire
We've entered peak Summer shipping season from Asia to US, Europe
Higher spot rates have already lifted contract rates in Q2 2024


Why an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Probably Wouldn't Lead to Lower Container Rates in Short-Term

<ul>
<li>Our index shows April pricing momentum remained positive in deep-sea trades</li>
<li>Evergreen Marine posted strong revenue and earnings growth in Q124</li>
<li>Container carriers have performed well YTD in 2024; we expect convergence</li>
</ul>


Our index shows April pricing momentum remained positive in deep-sea trades
Evergreen Marine posted strong revenue and earnings growth in Q124
Container carriers have performed well YTD in 2024; we expect convergence


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Share Prices Converging | (May 2024)

<ul>
<li>Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance</li>
<li>FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes</li>
<li>Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues</li>
</ul>


Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance
FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes
Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues


Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful 'Glass Half-Full' Investors

<ul>
<li>December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022</li>
<li>Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth</li>
<li>Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming</li>
</ul>


December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022
Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth
Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

<ul>
<li>After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123</li>
<li>We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a> no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.</li>
</ul>


After peaking in H122, container rates have tumbled back to pre-Covid levels in Q123
We believe core profitability has also declined to pre-Covid levels for some carriers

Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT) no longer looks expensive, trading at 70-75% of replacement  cost.


TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

Singapore

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is a port investor, developer and operator. The Company is also involved in transportation related services and logistics operations, including container storage and repair, container tracking, general and bulk cargo tranfer, warehousing, marine shuttle services and other related services.

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Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT SP)

Why an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Probably Wouldn't Lead to Lower Container Rates in Short-Term

Shares of container shipping companies have dipped in recent weeks, apparently on the expectation that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire could un-do the re...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful 'Glass Half-Full' Investors

Maersk's downbeat commentary appeared to surprise investors last week. It also revealed a mismatch between management's long-term views and...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

Price momentum for deep-sea container rates is improving, and container volumes are also firming. Meanwhile, cheap fuel remains a slightly helpful...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

For container rates and profitability, it's been a wild rollercoaster ride over the past three years. But now shares of pure play Evergreen Marine...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Why an Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Probably Wouldn't Lead to Lower Container Rates in Short-Term

Shares of container shipping companies have dipped in recent weeks, apparently on the expectation that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire could un-do the re...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Pricing Still Firm | Share Prices Converging | (May 2024)

Average deep-sea rates and traffic remained firm in April. The L/S pair trades we suggested back in mid-March? One of them has worked out quite well.

Tracking Traffic

Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful 'Glass Half-Full' Investors

Maersk's downbeat commentary appeared to surprise investors last week. It also revealed a mismatch between management's long-term views and...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

Price momentum for deep-sea container rates is improving, and container volumes are also firming. Meanwhile, cheap fuel remains a slightly helpful...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC / Container Shipping: End of the Rollercoaster Ride

For container rates and profitability, it's been a wild rollercoaster ride over the past three years. But now shares of pure play Evergreen Marine...

Tracking Traffic