Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings' (HSBA LN)</a> Q1 earnings release was one part theater, one part reality and in a large part more of the same. This may be a long and slow recovery and transformation for this institution. Time is not on its side from a debt rating perspective.With respect to reality, there is a glimmer of hope for revenues as HSBC reported an increase in the pipeline of loan applications.  As regards theater, HSBC’s loan loss reserve release appears to be largely signaling, rather than driven by an actual improvement in asset quality. Additional theater is provided in the way HSBC’s underlying profits are calculated.More of the same was seen in that HSBC cannot immediately escape its predicament of being a large conventional lender as opposed to a significant fee generating wealth and asset manager. This may be a long and slow recovery and transformation for this institution.Time is not on its side from a debt rating perspective. Moody’s review for a possible downgrade should be concluded before the end of Q2.  Notably, HSBC’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds are not at risk of a downgrade. They currently represent a safe harbor from downgrade risk and remain supported by a large buffer of capital. Most of these securities also trade at a meaningful discount, in spread and multiple terms, to the higher seniority Tier 2 securities.Concurrently, HSBC’s Tier 2 bonds trade extremely tight relative to the higher seniority Senior Unsecured bonds issued by HSBC Holdings.  For investors that cannot hold AT1 bonds, given the downgrade risk and the fact that there is little upside to be gained from owning HSBC’s Tier 2 bonds, our general preference would be to own HSBC’s holding company issued Senior Unsecured notes.

Executive Summary: HSBC Holdings' (HSBA LN) Q1 earnings release was one part theater, one part reality and in a large part more of the same. This may be a long and slow recovery and transformation for this institution. Time is not on its side from a debt rating perspective.With respect to reality, there is a glimmer of hope for revenues as HSBC reported an increase in the pipeline of loan applications.  As regards theater, HSBC’s loan loss reserve release appears to be largely signaling, rather than driven by an actual improvement in asset quality. Additional theater is provided in the way HSBC’s underlying profits are calculated.More of the same was seen in that HSBC cannot immediately escape its predicament of being a large conventional lender as opposed to a significant fee generating wealth and asset manager. This may be a long and slow recovery and transformation for this institution.Time is not on its side from a debt rating perspective. Moody’s review for a possible downgrade should be concluded before the end of Q2.  Notably, HSBC’s Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds are not at risk of a downgrade. They currently represent a safe harbor from downgrade risk and remain supported by a large buffer of capital. Most of these securities also trade at a meaningful discount, in spread and multiple terms, to the higher seniority Tier 2 securities.Concurrently, HSBC’s Tier 2 bonds trade extremely tight relative to the higher seniority Senior Unsecured bonds issued by HSBC Holdings.  For investors that cannot hold AT1 bonds, given the downgrade risk and the fact that there is little upside to be gained from owning HSBC’s Tier 2 bonds, our general preference would be to own HSBC’s holding company issued Senior Unsecured notes.

HSBC’s Q1 Results: One Part Theater and One Part Reality as We Move To a Downgrade

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

HSBC is now talking about bidding up staff costs in Asia, namely in wealth and investment banking. This comes as it tries to restructure costs lower. The bank may disappoint yet again, and it may not be only with expenses.

HSBC is now talking about bidding up staff costs in Asia, namely in wealth and investment banking. This comes as it tries to restructure costs lower. The bank may disappoint yet again, and it may not be only with expenses. 

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

China Merchants Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

*Good 1Q21 Bottom-Line: China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] reported 1Q21 results of CNY 32.0 bn, increasing CNY 11.3 bn (54.4%) linked quarter. Results were driven by net interest income improvement; robust fee growth; and an operating expense reduction; and *Credit Wall Continues To Grow: Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at an Indian bank pace of CNY 18.9 bn or 138.5% on an annualized basis, accelerating form the 04.7% growth rate posted in 4Q20. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 184% - suggesting that even the mighty are falling.

*Good 1Q21 Bottom-Line: China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) [CMB] reported 1Q21 results of CNY 32.0 bn, increasing CNY 11.3 bn (54.4%) linked quarter. Results were driven by net interest income improvement; robust fee growth; and an operating expense reduction; and *Credit Wall Continues To Grow: Net new problem loans continue to accelerate at an Indian bank pace of CNY 18.9 bn or 138.5% on an annualized basis, accelerating form the 04.7% growth rate posted in 4Q20. Provided (and its not a stretch) that the net new NPL ratio trajectory holds, reserve cover of NPLs will drop to 184% - suggesting that even the mighty are falling. 

China Merchants Bank – Pig Still In Python

Executive Summary: US investment banking Q1 results set us up for an interesting European bank earnings season. After reserve releases, investment banking revenues were the second largest driver of net revenues as compared to the prior year.The upcoming set of European bank results may be as good as it gets for this year. As each bank may release reserves, investment banking specialization may be the differentiating factor in terms of revenue results.With US banks noting that their more macro-related trading activities were lower than in the prior year, we consider which European banks may report similar activity. We suspect that the French institutions, Société Générale in particular, could benefit most from their investment banking results provided their real economy activity continues to strengthen.

Executive Summary: US investment banking Q1 results set us up for an interesting European bank earnings season. After reserve releases, investment banking revenues were the second largest driver of net revenues as compared to the prior year.The upcoming set of European bank results may be as good as it gets for this year. As each bank may release reserves, investment banking specialization may be the differentiating factor in terms of revenue results.With US banks noting that their more macro-related trading activities were lower than in the prior year, we consider which European banks may report similar activity. We suspect that the French institutions, Société Générale in particular, could benefit most from their investment banking results provided their real economy activity continues to strengthen.

US Investment Bank Results and Upcoming European Bank Earnings

*Stake Purchase In Mainland Bank: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] for the second time in five months announced a transaction. The latest being its intention to acquire a 13% stake in the privately-held Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank (SRCB) for CNY 5.29 bn (USD 814.3 mn), in a move that will accelerate its Greater Bay Area expansion strategy;*Very Expensive Transaction: DBS did disclose that this stake will be priced at a stated P/BV of 1.01x. By our calculation, the post-money P/BV amounts to 0.92x – which is still 41.5% (USD 338 mn) higher than the average valuation (0.65x P/BV) for a mainland Chinese bank; and*Deal Distractions Mount: On November 17, 2020, the RBI also announced a draft scheme to merge LVB with DBS Bank India Limited, the 100%-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Holdings (DBS.SP), which will infuse INR 25 bn into its subsidiary to absorb and recapitalize LVB. While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on that of other financial institutions.

*Stake Purchase In Mainland Bank: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] for the second time in five months announced a transaction. The latest being its intention to acquire a 13% stake in the privately-held Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank (SRCB) for CNY 5.29 bn (USD 814.3 mn), in a move that will accelerate its Greater Bay Area expansion strategy;*Very Expensive Transaction: DBS did disclose that this stake will be priced at a stated P/BV of 1.01x. By our calculation, the post-money P/BV amounts to 0.92x – which is still 41.5% (USD 338 mn) higher than the average valuation (0.65x P/BV) for a mainland Chinese bank; and*Deal Distractions Mount: On November 17, 2020, the RBI also announced a draft scheme to merge LVB with DBS Bank India Limited, the 100%-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Holdings (DBS.SP), which will infuse INR 25 bn into its subsidiary to absorb and recapitalize LVB. While SRCB dos not appear to be riddled with problems the way LVB is, no doubt there will be issues to contend with.  DBS apparently isn’t done with its shopping spree, being in the running for parts of Citigroup's (C.US) consumer business in Asia. Frankly, DBS needs to focus on improving its own legacy issues before it starts both taking on that of other financial institutions.

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

HSBC’s Q1 Results: One Part Theater and One Part Reality as We Move To a Downgrade

HSBC’s earnings release was one part theater, one part reality and in a large part more of the same. This may be a long and slow recovery and...

Hank Calenti, CFA

HSBC – Management Cries Costs

HSBC is now talking about bidding up staff costs in Asia. This comes as it tries to restructure costs lower. The bank may disappoint yet again, and...

Daniel Tabbush

China Merchants Bank – Pig Still In Python

CHINA MERCHANTS BANK: CMB reported a 1Q21 QOQ results increase of 54.4% driven by net interest income; fee growth; and lower expenses. Net new...

Thomas J. Monaco

US Investment Bank Results and Upcoming European Bank Earnings

Upcoming European bank results may be as good as it gets for this year. As each bank should release reserves, investment bank specialization may be...

Hank Calenti, CFA

DBS Group Holdings – Pricey China Deal

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS: DBS is acquiring a 13% stake in the privately-held SRCB for USD 814.3 mn. P/BV amounts to 0.92x – which is still 41.5% higher...

Thomas J. Monaco

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