Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In past 2 quarters <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a> saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. </li>
<li>It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. </li>
</ul>


In past 2 quarters OCBC (OCBC SP) saw its credit costs rise 150% YoY and then 250% YoY. For almost all of the preceding 8 quarters YoY growth was negative. 
It holds 3.8% of total loans in Greater China CRE, a sector that has seen visible deterioration in some banks, like Standard Chartered (STAN LN) and HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN). 

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) is seeing weakness in main revenue lines, with worsening policy claims. Its profit delta this year is distorted from the base effect. 


OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a> were the top net SOUTHBOUND inflows as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$8.515bn this past week.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
SOUTHBOUND flows the last four weeks clearly indicate a momentum move. The top net sells are all down. The top buys are all up.

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) were the top net SOUTHBOUND inflows as SOUTHBOUND bought HK$8.515bn this past week.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 3 Nov 23); CNOOC & China Mobile AGAIN See Outflows, SMIC & Xiaomi See Buys

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 27th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Yankuang Energy, CCB, Bidu, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 27th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Yankuang Energy, CCB, Bidu, Petrochina.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Yankuang Energy, CCB, Bidu, Petrochina

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Sinopec (386 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), HSBC (5 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 3rd based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Sinopec (386 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), HSBC (5 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 3rd): AIA, China Petroleum & Chemical, Li Ning

<ul>
<li>The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS (DBS SP)</a>. There will be fines and higher required capital.  </li>
<li>The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">UOB (UOB SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a> results are all illustrative of risks facing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS (DBS SP)</a> before results come out, especially credit costs.</li>
</ul>


The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at DBS (DBS SP). There will be fines and higher required capital.  
The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.

UOB (UOB SP) , Standard Chartered (STAN LN) , HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) results are all illustrative of risks facing DBS (DBS SP) before results come out, especially credit costs.


DBS - Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

OCBC - 10 Nov Results | Credit Costs +150% Then +250% | ~4% Loans Greater China CRE | Insurance Risk

OCBC releases results on 10 Nov. We believe the figures can underwhelm due largely to credit metrics. Insurance operations have also shown core...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 3 Nov 23); CNOOC & China Mobile AGAIN See Outflows, SMIC & Xiaomi See Buys

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND flows saw net inflows for the 15th week in a row with +HKD 8.5bn. H/A pairs saw Hs outperform their As by 56bp. Flows are...

Travis Lundy

HK Short Interest Weekly: Yankuang Energy, CCB, Bidu, Petrochina

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 27th and highlight short interest changes in Yankuang Energy, CCB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 3rd): AIA, China Petroleum & Chemical, Li Ning

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

DBS - Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

DBS faces fines and higher capital requirements, due to digital banking services outages. This is new. It comes at time where domestic loan growth...

Daniel Tabbush

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