Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength </li></ul><ul><li>Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)</li></ul><ul><li>ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ</li></ul>

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

It is a wonder that the bank did not mention India in its recent release?Where it was running a loss last fiscal year, ending March 2015.  And for 1H16, ending September this year, the loss is even greater – without annualising the figures. Perhaps this is because DBS Bank India Branches (as that business is called, incorporated in Singapore) are small in the scheme of things: the 1H15 loss is SG$69 million its assets are SG$7 billion.<div class="content-highlight">But the delta remains high, it is testimony to a troubled…</div>

It is a wonder that the bank did not mention India in its recent release?Where it was running a loss last fiscal year, ending March 2015.  And for 1H16, ending September this year, the loss is even greater – without annualising the figures. Perhaps this is because DBS Bank India Branches (as that business is called, incorporated in Singapore) are small in the scheme of things: the 1H15 loss is SG$69 million its assets are SG$7 billion.But the delta remains high, it is testimony to a troubled…

DBS Credit Metrics Worsening Not Just in China and HK, Also India

<ul><li>We tend to focus on loan risk as the most critical for banks. </li><li>And this is generally correct across most of Asia.  Even in Japan it is the correct way to consider impairment risk, where most other assets for Japan’s banks are Japanese Government Bonds.</li><li>But in China, beware.  </li><li>There are plenty of loan-like risks classified as investments. We start with a look at Harbin Bank.</li></ul>

We tend to focus on loan risk as the most critical for banks. And this is generally correct across most of Asia.  Even in Japan it is the correct way to consider impairment risk, where most other assets for Japan’s banks are Japanese Government Bonds.But in China, beware.  There are plenty of loan-like risks classified as investments. We start with a look at Harbin Bank.

Loans Are Not the Only Asset Risk for China Banks

It was bad enough in 1H15 when STAN had three regions reporting losses and some were small. Now it has essentially all regions reporting losses for year 2015, the second half particularly bad, with far higher impairment costs and not only credit related, but also for goodwill. Only Greater China is now reporting a reasonable profit, with ASEAN just above zero, and all others in a net loss.  This though must be bittersweet; we are not sure how this region – which includes HK, China, Taiwan and…

It was bad enough in 1H15 when STAN had three regions reporting losses and some were small. Now it has essentially all regions reporting losses for year 2015, the second half particularly bad, with far higher impairment costs and not only credit related, but also for goodwill. Only Greater China is now reporting a reasonable profit, with ASEAN just above zero, and all others in a net loss.  This though must be bittersweet; we are not sure how this region – which includes HK, China, Taiwan and…

It’s as if the bank had no idea about the credit cycle in the first few quarters of last year. HSBC was expensing about US$700 million a quarter very steadily – which is also curious. It feels to us the bank was caught out, trying to keep profit respectable, but the economics of its clients made it impossible to continue.

It’s as if the bank had no idea about the credit cycle in the first few quarters of last year. HSBC was expensing about US$700 million a quarter very steadily – which is also curious. It feels to us the bank was caught out, trying to keep profit respectable, but the economics of its clients made it impossible to continue.

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro...

Kay Van-Petersen

DBS Credit Metrics Worsening Not Just in China and HK, Also India

It is a wonder that the bank did not mention India in its recent release?Where it was running a loss last fiscal year, ending March 2015. And for...

Daniel Tabbush

Loans Are Not the Only Asset Risk for China Banks

We tend to focus on loan risk as the most critical for banks. And this is generally correct across most of Asia. Even in Japan it is the correct...

Daniel Tabbush

Almost All Regions in Loss at STAN

It was bad enough in 1H15 when STAN had three regions reporting losses and some were small. Now it has essentially all regions reporting losses for...

Daniel Tabbush

Spectacular Loss for HSBC

It’s as if the bank had no idea about the credit cycle in the first few quarters of last year. HSBC was expensing about US$700 million a quarter...

Daniel Tabbush

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