EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Our focus for HSBC’s results is the incredible weakness at its core. For certain this will have prompted the bank to limit its impairment costs, or run the risk of reporting a net loss for the quarter. With core income trends likely to persist and worsen in many regions, but with impairment costs near recent lows, the outlook is not positive.Net interest income is about as core as you get in banking income. In 3Q16 HSBC saw its net interest income decline by US$600m in the quarter. This is a…

Our focus for HSBC’s results is the incredible weakness at its core. For certain this will have prompted the bank to limit its impairment costs, or run the risk of reporting a net loss for the quarter. With core income trends likely to persist and worsen in many regions, but with impairment costs near recent lows, the outlook is not positive.Net interest income is about as core as you get in banking income. In 3Q16 HSBC saw its net interest income decline by US$600m in the quarter. This is a…

With Core Income Pressure, HSBC Keeps Provisions at Historical Lows

Yesterday's high court ruling stating that parliament must have a say before any triggering of Article 50 to start the process for Britain to leave the EU puts us at point 7 in my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-path-to-no-brexit" target="_blank">path to no Brexit</a>.The reaction from the pro-Brexit press and prominent individuals has been sharp, from declaring the judges in question as enemies of the nation (The Daily Mail) to saying this is the darkest day for the UK since World War II and for readers to fight, fight, fight (The Daily Express).Coming five months…

Yesterday's high court ruling stating that parliament must have a say before any triggering of Article 50 to start the process for Britain to leave the EU puts us at point 7 in my path to no Brexit.The reaction from the pro-Brexit press and prominent individuals has been sharp, from declaring the judges in question as enemies of the nation (The Daily Mail) to saying this is the darkest day for the UK since World War II and for readers to fight, fight, fight (The Daily Express).Coming five months…

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

The bitter divisiveness of the campaign, between Democrat Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump, reflects the deep disaffection of substantial parts of the electorate despite a return to modest economic growth.

The bitter divisiveness of the campaign, between Democrat Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump, reflects the deep disaffection of substantial parts of the electorate despite a return to modest economic growth.

Winds Across the Pacific: What the US Election Will Bring to Asia

Amareos

Ryan Shea

As any parent will confirm, teenagers know one thing. Unfortunately, it is “every”-thing. The rest of the population, by contrast, recognizes and appreciates the complexity of the world in which we inhabit, all the uncertainty that this necessarily generates, and the associated risks.Borrowing the lexicon of Donald Rumsfeld, there are two types of risk that we regularly encounter: unknown-unknowns and known-unknowns. As investors we can’t do much about the former, but we can do something about the latter. Indeed, this is the bread and butter of risk managers around the world.Crowd-sourced sentiment indicators provide a new additional tool for investors to monitor and assess a wide variety of financial market risks.  In this note, we demonstrate their applicability before going on to assess the short-run and long-run risks for US equities; particularly pertinent given two substantial known-unknowns looming on the near-horizon, namely the US Presidential election campaign and the upcoming FOMC meetings.

As any parent will confirm, teenagers know one thing. Unfortunately, it is “every”-thing. The rest of the population, by contrast, recognizes and appreciates the complexity of the world in which we inhabit, all the uncertainty that this necessarily generates, and the associated risks.Borrowing the lexicon of Donald Rumsfeld, there are two types of risk that we regularly encounter: unknown-unknowns and known-unknowns. As investors we can’t do much about the former, but we can do something about the latter. Indeed, this is the bread and butter of risk managers around the world.Crowd-sourced sentiment indicators provide a new additional tool for investors to monitor and assess a wide variety of financial market risks.  In this note, we demonstrate their applicability before going on to assess the short-run and long-run risks for US equities; particularly pertinent given two substantial known-unknowns looming on the near-horizon, namely the US Presidential election campaign and the upcoming FOMC meetings.

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

With Core Income Pressure, HSBC Keeps Provisions at Historical Lows

Our focus for HSBC’s results is the incredible weakness at its core. For certain this will have prompted the bank to limit its impairment costs, or...

Daniel Tabbush

Brexit: Judgement Versus Obedience

Yesterday's high court ruling stating that parliament must have a say before any triggering of Article 50 to start the process for Britain to leave...

Emad Mostaque

Winds Across the Pacific: What the US Election Will Bring to Asia

The bitter divisiveness of the campaign, between Democrat Hillary Clinton and her Republican rival Donald Trump, reflects the deep disaffection of...

Control Risks

Risk: Dealing With Known-Unknowns

As any parent will confirm, teenagers know one thing. Unfortunately, it is “every”-thing. The rest of the population, by contrast, recognizes and...

Amareos

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