Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. * 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated.  <h2>Investment Summary</h2>HNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland China has been aggressively reducing its Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] stake since the beginning of 2018 due to its own short-term financing needs. At the end of the day, we would not be shocked to see HNA (5.5% stake today vs. 9.1% at the peak) to completely liquidate its entire Deutsche position.Much more concerning, however, are press…

*5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. * 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated.  Investment SummaryHNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland China has been aggressively reducing its Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] stake since the beginning of 2018 due to its own short-term financing needs. At the end of the day, we would not be shocked to see HNA (5.5% stake today vs. 9.1% at the peak) to completely liquidate its entire Deutsche position.Much more concerning, however, are press…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/516" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK)</a> announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to turnaround its US operations, grow its Asian franchises, and simplify the organization, among a myriad of other strategic priorities. It seems as though this sprawling global behemoth revamps its strategy about every three years, although this may be a slight exaggeration.  In any case, returns have been poor for a long time and costs/income have been…

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to turnaround its US operations, grow its Asian franchises, and simplify the organization, among a myriad of other strategic priorities. It seems as though this sprawling global behemoth revamps its strategy about every three years, although this may be a slight exaggeration.  In any case, returns have been poor for a long time and costs/income have been…

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will  drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide Italy into a recession, as such, the September election appears to be a de facto referendum on the European Union (EU) and EUR. * Financials Tax Looming: Questions arise over how coalition will cover the budget deficit. The financial sector is the proverbial fish in the barrel with over EUR 20 bn in profits. Investment SummaryOn Monday, June 4, 2018…

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will  drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide Italy into a recession, as such, the September election appears to be a de facto referendum on the European Union (EU) and EUR. * Financials Tax Looming: Questions arise over how coalition will cover the budget deficit. The financial sector is the proverbial fish in the barrel with over EUR 20 bn in profits. Investment SummaryOn Monday, June 4, 2018…

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely too optimistic.* A US Problem Institution: The FDIC – following the Federal Reserve’s lead from a year ago – placed Deutsche US on problem institution status, citing operational weakness.* S&amp;P Downgrade:  Deutsche’s shares now trading in the single digits and CDS spreads are significantly wider. The belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that…

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely too optimistic.* A US Problem Institution: The FDIC – following the Federal Reserve’s lead from a year ago – placed Deutsche US on problem institution status, citing operational weakness.* S&amp;P Downgrade:  Deutsche’s shares now trading in the single digits and CDS spreads are significantly wider. The belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that…

* Capital Hole Has Been Dug: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) is in desperate need of a INR 550 bn capital infusion post the Nirav Modi fraud; this amounts to 134% of stated equity, in our view.* No Credible Plan in Place: Despite knowing of this fraud for several months, PNB nor the government would appear to have any form of credible bailout plan in place. On top of the interest reversals associated from this fraud, we find that the bank is seeing additional pressures on funding costs while…

* Capital Hole Has Been Dug: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) is in desperate need of a INR 550 bn capital infusion post the Nirav Modi fraud; this amounts to 134% of stated equity, in our view.* No Credible Plan in Place: Despite knowing of this fraud for several months, PNB nor the government would appear to have any form of credible bailout plan in place. On top of the interest reversals associated from this fraud, we find that the bank is seeing additional pressures on funding costs while…

Punjab National Bank – That Sinking Feeling

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

Deutsche Bank – Puke

5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated. Investment SummaryHNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC - Yet a New Strategy?

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to...

Daniel Tabbush

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - Good Night Moon

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely...

Thomas J. Monaco

Punjab National Bank – That Sinking Feeling

* Capital Hole Has Been Dug: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) is in desperate need of a INR 550 bn capital infusion post the Nirav Modi fraud; this...

Thomas J. Monaco

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Deutsche Bank – Puke

*5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. * 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated. Investment SummaryHNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC - Yet a New Strategy?

HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) announced on 11 June a new strategy update, which includes US$15-17 billion in spending until 2020. The bank wants to...

Daniel Tabbush

Italian Election Likely to Severely Impact Financial Sector

* A Coalition Win Creates Numerous Problems: The German government likely will drag out the timeline for new Italian elections in order to guide...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - Good Night Moon

* Questionable Restructuring Plan: Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.NY) [Deutsche] announced a dramatic restructuring plan with targets which are likely...

Thomas J. Monaco

Punjab National Bank – That Sinking Feeling

* Capital Hole Has Been Dug: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) is in desperate need of a INR 550 bn capital infusion post the Nirav Modi fraud; this...

Thomas J. Monaco

5.5% HNA Group stake Being Liquidated. 6.1% Qatar Stake Likely Next to Be Liquidated. Investment SummaryHNA Group (HNA) [private] in mainland...