Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* No Reason for Trump Administration to Back Down on Trade War; and* Concessions to be Granted by Europe and Mainland China.<h2>Investment Summary</h2>The intensifying trade war conflict has had a debilitating impact on emerging markets to date, and it’s likely to worsen from here. A negotiated peace before the September deadline is highly unlikely, and as a result, the HSCEI could decline another 20% or more from here over the next few months. The strong US economy and stock market have given President…

* No Reason for Trump Administration to Back Down on Trade War; and* Concessions to be Granted by Europe and Mainland China.Investment SummaryThe intensifying trade war conflict has had a debilitating impact on emerging markets to date, and it’s likely to worsen from here. A negotiated peace before the September deadline is highly unlikely, and as a result, the HSCEI could decline another 20% or more from here over the next few months. The strong US economy and stock market have given President…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

With worsening data out of France, we must presume that credit metrics or at least credit growth can worsen. At the same time, credit quality can deteriorate. We believe that most analysis on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/516" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1">HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK)</a> focuses on its Asian operations or its US operations, so that weakness in France can be a negative surprise. While it is not a region the bank highlights – for obvious reasons – this in of itself can lead to limitations on coverage or analysis of HSBC’s business in France. The…

With worsening data out of France, we must presume that credit metrics or at least credit growth can worsen. At the same time, credit quality can deteriorate. We believe that most analysis on HSBC Holdings Plc (5 HK) focuses on its Asian operations or its US operations, so that weakness in France can be a negative surprise. While it is not a region the bank highlights – for obvious reasons – this in of itself can lead to limitations on coverage or analysis of HSBC’s business in France. The…

HSBC – Less Followed HSBC France Can Be a Drag on Group

* Deutsche Bank USA Fails CCAR and Capital Infusion Likely Necessary;* Several Other Banks Passed Conditionally; and *  Deutsche’s  CDS spreads are significantly wider; the belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that Deutsche is far from being out of the woods;  and  the HNA Group and Qatari Share Dumps To Continue. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>All but one of the 35 commercial banks have passed the Federal Reserve Board's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test inclusive of…

* Deutsche Bank USA Fails CCAR and Capital Infusion Likely Necessary;* Several Other Banks Passed Conditionally; and *  Deutsche’s  CDS spreads are significantly wider; the belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that Deutsche is far from being out of the woods;  and  the HNA Group and Qatari Share Dumps To Continue. Investment SummaryAll but one of the 35 commercial banks have passed the Federal Reserve Board's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test inclusive of…

* President Erdogan is Likely to Win, and Capital Controls Likely Will Follow;  and * All Signs Point to TRL Weakness on Par With Argentina.  <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Ahead of this weekend’s elections (June 24th) in Turkey, President Erdogan rescinded his recent narrative that the Central Bank of Turkey will regain independence. Instead, he indicated that “You will see how we deal with interest rates and other things once you give me the authority".  President Erdogan has removed any doubt that  this…

* President Erdogan is Likely to Win, and Capital Controls Likely Will Follow;  and * All Signs Point to TRL Weakness on Par With Argentina.  Investment SummaryAhead of this weekend’s elections (June 24th) in Turkey, President Erdogan rescinded his recent narrative that the Central Bank of Turkey will regain independence. Instead, he indicated that “You will see how we deal with interest rates and other things once you give me the authority".  President Erdogan has removed any doubt that  this…

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

*  Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory requirements, and debt/GDP cap - accelerating NPLs to follow.  Investment SummaryThe Vietnamese banking sector is falling off of a cliff, with valuations declining 5.8% over the last 30 days. Only consumer-focused VP Bank (VPB VN) has posted a positive  return (up 11.5%) over the period. In our view, there is certainly more to go with valuations at…

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)

Putting the Panda In Its Place

* No Reason for Trump Administration to Back Down on Trade War; and* Concessions to be Granted by Europe and Mainland China.Investment SummaryThe...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSBC – Less Followed HSBC France Can Be a Drag on Group

With worsening data out of France, we must presume that credit metrics or at least credit growth can worsen. At the same time, credit quality can...

Daniel Tabbush

Deutsche Bank - Failed CCAR

* Deutsche Bank USA Fails CCAR and Capital Infusion Likely Necessary;* Several Other Banks Passed Conditionally; and * Deutsche’s CDS spreads are...

Thomas J. Monaco

Cold Turkey

* President Erdogan is Likely to Win, and Capital Controls Likely Will Follow; and * All Signs Point to TRL Weakness on Par With...

Thomas J. Monaco

Vietnam Banking Sector - Stop, It Hurts

* Moody's Weak Credit Rating Assigned; * State Bank of Vietnam Circular Prevents Cross-Ownership; and* Growth constrained due to bank regulatory...

Thomas J. Monaco

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