Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Debt Capital Markets

HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd / Debt Capital Markets

We view HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, with a “Stable” credit bias. This is on account of the solid fundamentals, stable business and strategic importance to the partly state-owned HPCL. HMEL's refinery boasts one of the highest complexity in India, which allows it to process heavier and sour crude for high gross refining margins. The facility also benefits from its location in North India, where there is a deficit of refinery capacity, while demand for petroleum products is strong and growing fast. The Indian market has one of the lowest oil and petroleum consumption per capita, but the country's economic growth is among the highest in the world. The take-or-pay off-take agreement with HPCL further mitigates operational risk. That said, the capex-intensive petrochemical expansion will weigh on its credit profile in the next few years. We view corporate governance as “Moderate” on the LAGA scale, driven by: [1] a balanced shareholder structure; [2] HPCL being a public state-owned company, meaning it is also being observed by the public; and [3] the banks are also shareholders, with their interests thus being aligned. HMEL is one of the strongest and most stable credits in the Indian HY universe. The nearest comps would be the TTMTIN '23s and '24s, and the TATAIN '24s and DIALIN '26s. HMEL is stronger than TATAIN in terms of credit metrics, as well as the stability and robustness of the business. HMEL's credit profile is comparable to TTMTIN, as its weaker credit metrics are mitigated by the business' strength. HMEL's business stability is comparable to DIALIN. Thus, we see fair value for the proposed HMEL 10Y USD 400 mn Notes at 5%.

We view HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, with a “Stable” credit bias. This is on account of the solid fundamentals, stable business and strategic importance to the partly state-owned HPCL. HMEL's refinery boasts one of the highest complexity in India, which allows it to process heavier and sour crude for high gross refining margins. The facility also benefits from its location in North India, where there is a deficit of refinery capacity, while demand for petroleum products is strong and growing fast. The Indian market has one of the lowest oil and petroleum consumption per capita, but the country's economic growth is among the highest in the world. The take-or-pay off-take agreement with HPCL further mitigates operational risk. That said, the capex-intensive petrochemical expansion will weigh on its credit profile in the next few years.  We view corporate governance as “Moderate” on the LAGA scale, driven by: [1] a balanced shareholder structure; [2] HPCL being a public state-owned company, meaning it is also being observed by the public; and [3] the banks are also shareholders, with their interests thus being aligned.  HMEL is one of the strongest and most stable credits in the Indian HY universe. The nearest comps would be the TTMTIN '23s and '24s, and the TATAIN '24s and DIALIN '26s. HMEL is stronger than TATAIN in terms of credit metrics, as well as the stability and robustness of the business. HMEL's credit profile is comparable to TTMTIN, as its weaker credit metrics are mitigated by the business' strength. HMEL's business stability is comparable to DIALIN. Thus, we see fair value for the proposed HMEL 10Y USD 400 mn Notes at 5%.  

HPCL-Mittal Energy - New Issue Snapshot - Lucror Analytics

India

HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited owns and operates the refineries. The Company produces polypropylene, sulphur, liquefied petroleum gas, aviation fuel, and petroleum coke products. HMEL serves customers in India.

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HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (0526794D IN)

HPCL-Mittal Energy - New Issue Snapshot - Lucror Analytics

We view HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) as “Low Risk” on our LARA scale, with a “Stable” credit bias. This is on account of the solid fundamentals,...

Lucror Analytics

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