Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs</li>
<li>All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.</li>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.</li>
</ul>


The SPX gapped-up to reverse its 1-month downtrend on 5/3/24, followed by another upside gap on 5/6/24, and yet another on 5/15/24 on the breakout to all-time highs
All of these gaps remain unfilled which signals upside power, a very bullish sign. These gaps at 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101 are now areas to expect short-term support, if tested.
Market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are all breaking out to new all-time highs, helping validate our bullish outlook.


New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

<ul>
<li>We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.</li>
<li>This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)</li>
<li>If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys</li>
</ul>


We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the SPX and Nasdaq 100 close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get cautious.
This still hasn't happened (short-term trend remains bullish). If we get 2-3 closes below the 20-dayMAs, next support would be 4983-5050 on SPX, $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24)
If some or all of these gaps remain unfilled, it is a sign that bulls remain in control. We are seeing a rotation into commodity Sectors, we highlight several buys


Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Howmet Aerospace Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings, showcasing a 16% year-over-year revenue increase and a 1% sequential growth across all markets.</li><li>Commercial aerospace, marking its tenth consecutive quarter of growth, led the surge with a 23% year-over-year increase, constituting 49% of total revenue.</li><li>Besides, Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels reported significant year-over-year revenue growth, with EBITDA margins showing improvement.</li></ul>

Howmet Aerospace Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings, showcasing a 16% year-over-year revenue increase and a 1% sequential growth across all markets.Commercial aerospace, marking its tenth consecutive quarter of growth, led the surge with a 23% year-over-year increase, constituting 49% of total revenue.Besides, Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels reported significant year-over-year revenue growth, with EBITDA margins showing improvement.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.: What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Howmet Aerospace delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.</li><li>Revenues showed significant year-over-year and sequential growth, with a notable highlight in the commercial aerospace sector.</li><li>Moreover, Howmet maintained a healthy cash balance and generated robust free cash flow.</li></ul>

Howmet Aerospace delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result.Revenues showed significant year-over-year and sequential growth, with a notable highlight in the commercial aerospace sector.Moreover, Howmet maintained a healthy cash balance and generated robust free cash flow.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.: 3 Factors Powering Its Dynamic Growth Trajectory Despite Strikes and Supply Chain Hurdles! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Howmet Aerospace had a strong first quarter with revenues of $1.6 billion, up 6% sequentially and 21% over the previous year.</li><li>Commercial aerospace sales increased 29% year on year, led by Engine Products, Engineered Structures, and Fastening Systems.</li><li>Defence Aerospace increased 11% year on year, led by the F-35 program and increases in legacy spares.</li></ul>

Howmet Aerospace had a strong first quarter with revenues of $1.6 billion, up 6% sequentially and 21% over the previous year.Commercial aerospace sales increased 29% year on year, led by Engine Products, Engineered Structures, and Fastening Systems.Defence Aerospace increased 11% year on year, led by the F-35 program and increases in legacy spares.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.: Commercial Aerospace Resurgence Is Saving The Day – Key Drivers

United States

Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides engineered metal products. The Company offers engines, fasteners, and structures, as well as forged wheels. Howmet Aerospace serves the aerospace and commercial transportation industries.

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Howmet Aerospace (HWM US)

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook; Risk-On Signals Abound. Buys in Aluminum, Shippers

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook $SPX $QQQ $DJI; Risk-On Signals Abound. Three SPX upside gaps in May signals bulls firmly in...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Materials to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors; SPX/NDX Holding Above Support

Upgrading Materials $XLB to Market Weight; Rotation into Commodity Sectors $XLE. $SPX and $QQQ holding above gap supports at 4983-5050 and $425...

Vermilion Research

Howmet Aerospace Inc.: What Is Its Biggest Competitive Advantage? - Major Drivers

Howmet Aerospace Inc. managed to exceed analyst expectations in terms of revenue as well as earnings, showcasing a 16% year-over-year revenue...

Baptista Research

Howmet Aerospace Inc.: 3 Factors Powering Its Dynamic Growth Trajectory Despite Strikes and Supply Chain Hurdles! - Major Drivers

Howmet Aerospace delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly result. Revenues showed significant year-over-year and sequential...

Baptista Research

Howmet Aerospace Inc.: Commercial Aerospace Resurgence Is Saving The Day – Key Drivers

Howmet Aerospace had a strong first quarter with revenues of $1.6 billion, up 6% sequentially and 21% over the previous year. Commercial aerospace...

Baptista Research

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