Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The Nasdaq, China and the JPY walk into a bar.</li>
<li>The world's biggest uranium miner cuts its 2025 production guidance</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The Nasdaq, China and the JPY walk into a bar.
The world's biggest uranium miner cuts its 2025 production guidance


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> is looking to sell 144.5m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (JD US)</a> to raise up to US$3.74bn. That would be substantially all of its stake.</li>
<li>There will be passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares and could absorb around 12% of the placement shares.</li>
<li>There will be no passive buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII trackers in the short-term. An increase in CCASS holdings should result in passive buying in December.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that Walmart (WMT US) is looking to sell 144.5m shares of JD.com (JD US) to raise up to US$3.74bn. That would be substantially all of its stake.
There will be passive buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the placement shares and could absorb around 12% of the placement shares.
There will be no passive buying from HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII trackers in the short-term. An increase in CCASS holdings should result in passive buying in December.


JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

<ul>
<li>The latest policy proposal is one step closer but still incremental</li>
<li>Incremental steps taken so far have been ineffective in the short-term</li>
<li>The ideal solution would be full intervention by the Central Government</li>
</ul>


The latest policy proposal is one step closer but still incremental
Incremental steps taken so far have been ineffective in the short-term
The ideal solution would be full intervention by the Central Government


China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the close on 6 September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.5bn. Passives need to buy over 7x ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Positioning appears light in both stocks. Expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> to move up and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK)</a> to move lower near-term.</li>
</ul>


As expected, ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) will replace Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 6 September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.5bn. Passives need to buy over 7x ADV in ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK). 
Positioning appears light in both stocks. Expect ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) to move up and Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) to move lower near-term.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: ASMPT (522 HK) Replaces Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)

<ul>
<li>There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet &amp; Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the September rebalance. There are some surprises.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn (US$262m). 7 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weimob-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27394:1" rel="noopener">Weimob Inc. (2013 HK)</a> is a surprise add. There is 6x ADV to buy from passive trackers and shorts are 12% of shares out and 24x ADV to cover.</li>
</ul>


There will be 3 changes for the Hang Seng Internet &amp; Information Technology Index (HSIII) at the September rebalance. There are some surprises.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn (US$262m). 7 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.

Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) is a surprise add. There is 6x ADV to buy from passive trackers and shorts are 12% of shares out and 24x ADV to cover.


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Overview #8 Plus Ca Change...

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Japan the Japanese Yen, China as well as Uranium

Rikki Malik

JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

Walmart is looking to sell its entire stake in JD.com. The ADR is lower in the aftermarket and the HK-line is down 10.8%. Passive trackers will buy...

Brian Freitas

China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market

Recent policy changes are positive but lack resolution on property issues, with incremental steps proving ineffective in the short-term.

Rikki Malik

HSTECH Index Rebalance: ASMPT (522 HK) Replaces Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)

ASMPT will replace Ping An Healthcare in the HSTECH at the close on 6 Sep. Changes were expected but positioning appears light. With 6.5% of float...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises

There are 3 changes for the HSIII in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn...

Brian Freitas

Overview #8 Plus Ca Change...

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Japan the Japanese Yen, China as well as Uranium

Rikki Malik

JD.com (9618 HK): Index Implications of Walmart Placement

Walmart is looking to sell its entire stake in JD.com. The ADR is lower in the aftermarket and the HK-line is down 10.8%. Passive trackers will buy...

Brian Freitas

China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market

​Recent policy changes are positive but lack resolution on property issues, with incremental steps proving ineffective in the short-term.

Rikki Malik

HSTECH Index Rebalance: ASMPT (522 HK) Replaces Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)

ASMPT will replace Ping An Healthcare in the HSTECH at the close on 6 Sep. Changes were expected but positioning appears light. With 6.5% of float...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Three Changes & A Few Surprises

There are 3 changes for the HSIII in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.04bn...

Brian Freitas

Recent policy changes are positive but lack resolution on property issues, with incremental steps proving ineffective in the short-term.