Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Event-Driven

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 9 inclusions and 9 deletions.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-land-invest" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:419:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>. The deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-taiping-insurance-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:489:1" rel="noopener">China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a>. One-way turnover is estimated at 10.21% and volumes at the closing auction on 4 December are going to be HUGE. Passive funds will need to trade between 1.5-4.5 days of ADV on the deletions and between 0.5-4 days of ADV on the inclusions.We had picked all 9 inclusions and exclusions, so there are no surprises in the review. That said, the probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> being included was the lowest since it was right at the cusp of inclusion, so there could be a pop at the open on Monday. Hansoh, at almost 4 days of ADV, has the biggest impact to buy from passive funds. The corresponding deletion was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> and the stock could start trading lower on Monday.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 9 inclusions and 9 deletions.The inclusions are Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK). The deletions are Want Want (151 HK), Fosun International (656 HK), China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK), China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK), China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK), China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK), China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK), China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK) and PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK). One-way turnover is estimated at 10.21% and volumes at the closing auction on 4 December are going to be HUGE. Passive funds will need to trade between 1.5-4.5 days of ADV on the deletions and between 0.5-4 days of ADV on the inclusions.We had picked all 9 inclusions and exclusions, so there are no surprises in the review. That said, the probability of Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) being included was the lowest since it was right at the cusp of inclusion, so there could be a pop at the open on Monday. Hansoh, at almost 4 days of ADV, has the biggest impact to buy from passive funds. The corresponding deletion was PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) and the stock could start trading lower on Monday.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 9 Adds, 9 Deletes, BIG Turnover

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, there are 3 inclusions and 1 deletion, taking the number of index constituents up to 52.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, while the sole deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a>. One-way turnover is estimated at 7.38%. That is very high and will result in big turnover at the closing auction on 4 December. We estimate 5 days of ADV to sell on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> from passive funds, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> have over 4 days and 3 days of ADV to buy respectively. The impact of passive buying on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> is lower at 1.6 days of ADV.Following HSIL's announcement at the previous index review, we had expected there would be more additions than deletions in this review. All the 3 stocks added to the index were our highest probability inclusion candidates - the 'surprise' for the market would have to be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> was probably on everyone's list for inclusion.We had picked <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> as the most likely deletion candidate, though we did not think that HSIL would actually delete the stock since it derives most of its revenue from Hong Kong and helps reduce the overlap with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.HSIL announced that they had submitted a study on the composition of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> to the Advisory Committee and plan to conduct a market consultation this year with the conclusions announced in February 2021. The implementation of the changes will most likely commence at the March 2021/ June 2021 index review.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), there are 3 inclusions and 1 deletion, taking the number of index constituents up to 52.The inclusions are Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) and Meituan (3690 HK), while the sole deletion is Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK). One-way turnover is estimated at 7.38%. That is very high and will result in big turnover at the closing auction on 4 December. We estimate 5 days of ADV to sell on Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) from passive funds, while Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK) and Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) have over 4 days and 3 days of ADV to buy respectively. The impact of passive buying on Meituan (3690 HK) is lower at 1.6 days of ADV.Following HSIL's announcement at the previous index review, we had expected there would be more additions than deletions in this review. All the 3 stocks added to the index were our highest probability inclusion candidates - the 'surprise' for the market would have to be Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) followed by Budweiser Brewing Company APAC (1876 HK). Meituan (3690 HK) was probably on everyone's list for inclusion.We had picked Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) as the most likely deletion candidate, though we did not think that HSIL would actually delete the stock since it derives most of its revenue from Hong Kong and helps reduce the overlap with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).HSIL announced that they had submitted a study on the composition of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) to the Advisory Committee and plan to conduct a market consultation this year with the conclusions announced in February 2021. The implementation of the changes will most likely commence at the March 2021/ June 2021 index review. 

Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Three Adds, One Delete, High Turnover, and More Changes to Come

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Favored longs in A shares, ASX, Japan, Taiwan and Korea are hitting some resistance levels (to reduce longs) and sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. This fade stems from the likelihood of bull energy being deflated given Trump will contest election results and call for re counts which in turn will delay stimulus certainty and see the current euphoric rally pause as bull triangles form in the SPX and NDX (buy weakness). Fed remarks on slowing growth concerns may also throw water on this reaction spike. We like adding risk on weakness.Shorts outlined to trade a pullback lower short term.

Favored longs in A shares, ASX, Japan, Taiwan and Korea are hitting some resistance levels (to reduce longs) and sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. This fade stems from the likelihood of bull energy being deflated given Trump will contest election results and call for re counts which in turn will delay stimulus certainty and see the current euphoric rally pause as bull triangles form in the SPX and NDX (buy weakness). Fed remarks on slowing growth concerns may also throw water on this reaction spike. We like adding risk on weakness.Shorts outlined to trade a pullback lower short term.

Last evening post market close in Hong Kong, Hang Seng Indexes released an <a href="https://www.hsi.com.hk/static/uploads/contents/en/news/indexChgNotice/20201030T100000.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">index notice</a> announcing a new Fast Entry rule for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.As one can imagine, this is being done solely to ensure the early inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> in the index. Index investors would then look at buying index futures and other derivatives on the HSCEI to play the upside. The early inclusion could also help the HSCEI to catch up with other China focused indices, where it has been a laggard for some time now.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>'s Fast Entry into the index will also mean that one stock needs to be deleted, though from the index rules it is not very clear if that would happen at the regular index review in December 2020 or March 2021.In this Insight, we take a look at the impact of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a>'s inclusion in the HSCEI on the stock and what it means for the other stocks in the index.

Last evening post market close in Hong Kong, Hang Seng Indexes released an index notice announcing a new Fast Entry rule for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).As one can imagine, this is being done solely to ensure the early inclusion of Ant Group (6688 HK) in the index. Index investors would then look at buying index futures and other derivatives on the HSCEI to play the upside. The early inclusion could also help the HSCEI to catch up with other China focused indices, where it has been a laggard for some time now.Ant Group (6688 HK)'s Fast Entry into the index will also mean that one stock needs to be deleted, though from the index rules it is not very clear if that would happen at the regular index review in December 2020 or March 2021.In this Insight, we take a look at the impact of Ant Group (6688 HK)'s inclusion in the HSCEI on the stock and what it means for the other stocks in the index. 

Ant Group: Everyone Wants a Piece of The Action - HSCEI Fast Entry

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

In our October 1 Int’l Compass we highlighted our belief that the lows were in place for this recent correction and that, combined with mostly healthy market dynamics, a bullish outlook is appropriate if the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above $77 support and, if the MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $42.30 support. These indexes and market dynamics have only improved since October 1. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. Below we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

In our October 1 Int’l Compass we highlighted our belief that the lows were in place for this recent correction and that, combined with mostly healthy market dynamics, a bullish outlook is appropriate if the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above $77 support and, if the MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $42.30 support. These indexes and market dynamics have only improved since October 1. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. Below we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 9 Adds, 9 Deletes, BIG Turnover

There are 9 adds and 9 deletes in the upcoming HSCEI rebalance. Turnover at 10%+ is big and there is a lot of short interest on names. The momentum...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Three Adds, One Delete, High Turnover, and More Changes to Come

There are 3 adds and 1 delete to the HSI in the Dec20 index review with a one-way turnover of 7.68%. The upcoming market consultation means there...

Brian Freitas

Asia Fade Levels and Fresh Long Supports

Asia is kissing key resistance levels that sets up a fade with a focus on fresh buy supports. Trump will contest election results/call for re...

Thomas Schroeder

Ant Group: Everyone Wants a Piece of The Action - HSCEI Fast Entry

Hang Seng Indexes has introduced a Fast Entry rule for the HSCEI which ensures the inclusion of Ant Group in the index after the close of trading...

Brian Freitas

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Read our complete International Strategy document to find detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Vermilion Research