China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China securities watchdog revealed the latest reform on QFII/RQFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) scheme to further open up China domestic capital market. The new rule will become effective on Nov. 1, 2020. This is another milestone for China capital market reform and will boost up foreign fund inflow in the long-run. We have written the reform measures early this year: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-a-share-strategy-r-qfii-quota-removal-to-offer-more-attractive-channel-to-invest-in-china" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China A-Share Strategy: R/​QFII Quota Removal to Offer More Attractive Channel to Invest In China</a>
</li>
<li>The most significant changes are the additional investment products that foreign fund managers can participate: 1) non-hedging purpose investments in index futures/options, 2) margin financing and securities lending for short-selling purpose, 3) private investment funds, 4) FICC derivatives in commodity exchanges and inter-bank market. We believe these reforms could offer comprehensive investment solutions to sophisticated institutional investors.</li>
<li>Foreign Funds' China A-share positions have accounted about 4% of A-share total market-cap, or 9% of A-share free-float market-cap by the end of 1H 2020. Nowadays, foreign investors have multiple channels to deploy their capital into China A-share market: QFII scheme, RMB-QFII scheme, or stock connect program via Hong Kong exchange (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a>).  Given the increasing weight of China A-share in global benchmark indices, we believe foreign funds' China A-share positions will continue to rise and will reach 10% of A-share total market-cap in next 10 years.</li>
</ul>


China securities watchdog revealed the latest reform on QFII/RQFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) scheme to further open up China domestic capital market. The new rule will become effective on Nov. 1, 2020. This is another milestone for China capital market reform and will boost up foreign fund inflow in the long-run. We have written the reform measures early this year: China A-Share Strategy: R/​QFII Quota Removal to Offer More Attractive Channel to Invest In China

The most significant changes are the additional investment products that foreign fund managers can participate: 1) non-hedging purpose investments in index futures/options, 2) margin financing and securities lending for short-selling purpose, 3) private investment funds, 4) FICC derivatives in commodity exchanges and inter-bank market. We believe these reforms could offer comprehensive investment solutions to sophisticated institutional investors.
Foreign Funds' China A-share positions have accounted about 4% of A-share total market-cap, or 9% of A-share free-float market-cap by the end of 1H 2020. Nowadays, foreign investors have multiple channels to deploy their capital into China A-share market: QFII scheme, RMB-QFII scheme, or stock connect program via Hong Kong exchange (HKEX (388 HK)).  Given the increasing weight of China A-share in global benchmark indices, we believe foreign funds' China A-share positions will continue to rise and will reach 10% of A-share total market-cap in next 10 years.


China A-Share Strategy: Deregulation in QFII/RQFII Scheme to Boost up Foreign Fund Inflow

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Weaker Futures Activity Continues: ASX Limited (ASX.AU) [ASX] remains a among the better listed exchanges globally, earnings fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future. During the September 2020 update, stronger capital markets activity was a positive surprise and velocity is tracking well. However, the weaker trend in futures activity continues its downward trend whilst costs continue to rise as ASX continues to invest in technology; and*Expect Consensus To Take Hatchet To EPS:  New revenue initiatives are also unlikely to add materially to growth in FY 2021. In our view, consensus forecasts remain beyond what is rational and significant EPS downgrades are inevitable.  In light of these headwinds, it’s pretty difficult to justify a P/E of 38x FY 2022 consensus forecasts.

*Weaker Futures Activity Continues: ASX Limited (ASX.AU) [ASX] remains a among the better listed exchanges globally, earnings fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future. During the September 2020 update, stronger capital markets activity was a positive surprise and velocity is tracking well. However, the weaker trend in futures activity continues its downward trend whilst costs continue to rise as ASX continues to invest in technology; and*Expect Consensus To Take Hatchet To EPS:  New revenue initiatives are also unlikely to add materially to growth in FY 2021. In our view, consensus forecasts remain beyond what is rational and significant EPS downgrades are inevitable.  In light of these headwinds, it’s pretty difficult to justify a P/E of 38x FY 2022 consensus forecasts.

ASX Limited – Softening Trends Continue

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

*Highlights of Investor Day: Alibaba Group (BABA.US/9988.HK) [Alibaba] held a virtual 2020 Investor Day, where it emphasized high quality growth, structural opportunities, and efficiency gains; and*Extracting Synergies: There remains an opportunity for Alibaba cross-sell and extract synergies. Some areas of focus include: DME; Freshippo; local services/Ant Financial; Cainiao; and Alibaba Cloud.

*Highlights of Investor Day: Alibaba Group (BABA.US/9988.HK) [Alibaba] held a virtual 2020 Investor Day, where it emphasized high quality growth, structural opportunities, and efficiency gains; and*Extracting Synergies: There remains an opportunity for Alibaba cross-sell and extract synergies. Some areas of focus include: DME; Freshippo; local services/Ant Financial; Cainiao; and Alibaba Cloud. 

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

We are upgrading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/best-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25494:1" rel="noopener">BEST Inc (BEST US)</a> from HOLD to BUY on the expectation of Chinese express sector consolidation in the coming 12-18 months. Note that we do not expect sector fundamentals to improve in the near-term, nor do we expect Best to erase its losses in the next few quarters. 
While we concede we may be early in rating Best BUY, we believe conditions are developing in ways that make sector M&amp;A more likely in the medium-term. Given its size, its depressed valuation and its relationship to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, Best could become an acquisition target. 
We view Best as a cheap option on sector consolidation. At a 20% discount to peers on [EV/Revenue] and [EV/Parcel], we believe Best's express operation alone is worth US$5.05 per ADS -- investors effectively get the rest of its businesses for free. BUY below US$3 for ~70% upside.

We are upgrading BEST Inc (BEST US) from HOLD to BUY on the expectation of Chinese express sector consolidation in the coming 12-18 months. Note that we do not expect sector fundamentals to improve in the near-term, nor do we expect Best to erase its losses in the next few quarters. 
While we concede we may be early in rating Best BUY, we believe conditions are developing in ways that make sector M&amp;A more likely in the medium-term. Given its size, its depressed valuation and its relationship to Alibaba Group (BABA US), Best could become an acquisition target. 
We view Best as a cheap option on sector consolidation. At a 20% discount to peers on [EV/Revenue] and [EV/Parcel], we believe Best's express operation alone is worth US$5.05 per ADS -- investors effectively get the rest of its businesses for free. BUY below US$3 for ~70% upside. 

Upgrading Best Inc To Speculative BUY on Expectation of Express Sector Consolidation

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Sometimes, the "ESG stuff" can really alter the outcome of an IPO. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saudi-aramco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27317:1" rel="noopener">Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB)</a> debut was curbed by Environmental concerns. WeWork's failed IPO is a case study in founder-led Governance risk. Palantir quashed its "adjustable voting power for founders" after an uproar.
ESG impacts IPOs. But not Ant's IPO.
Ant's ESG profile is strong. There a few skeletons in the closet if you look hard enough, but they are bygone and irrelevant . Current ESG blemishes are minor. There isn't much dirt for ESG idealists to wallow in. If they are even looking at all; as a "China deal," ESG has a different relevance for Ant.
Ant's IPO is a momentous ESG event, but not in the traditional and obvious way.
This is not about ESG impacting Ant's IPO. This is about Ant's IPO impacting ESG.
Looking at Ant through a typical ESG lens will make one's head spin. But step back and look again, and it becomes clear that Ant is a strategically-integrated masterpiece at the vanguard of a critical crossroads – the intersection of Fintech, financial inclusion, green finance, and sustainability.
It is all a matter of perspective.
Seeing the forest for the trees.

Sometimes, the "ESG stuff" can really alter the outcome of an IPO. The Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB) debut was curbed by Environmental concerns. WeWork's failed IPO is a case study in founder-led Governance risk. Palantir quashed its "adjustable voting power for founders" after an uproar.
ESG impacts IPOs. But not Ant's IPO.
Ant's ESG profile is strong. There a few skeletons in the closet if you look hard enough, but they are bygone and irrelevant . Current ESG blemishes are minor. There isn't much dirt for ESG idealists to wallow in. If they are even looking at all; as a "China deal," ESG has a different relevance for Ant.
Ant's IPO is a momentous ESG event, but not in the traditional and obvious way.
This is not about ESG impacting Ant's IPO. This is about Ant's IPO impacting ESG.
Looking at Ant through a typical ESG lens will make one's head spin. But step back and look again, and it becomes clear that Ant is a strategically-integrated masterpiece at the vanguard of a critical crossroads – the intersection of Fintech, financial inclusion, green finance, and sustainability.
It is all a matter of perspective.
Seeing the forest for the trees.

Ant Group Pre-IPO ESG Assessment: Seeing the Forest for the Trees

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Limited owns and operates the stock exchange, futures exchange, and their related clearing houses in Hong Kong.  The Company provides the trading platforms for a range of cash and derivatives products and the facilities for processing trades.

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HKEX (388 HK)

ASX Limited – Softening Trends Continue

*Weaker Futures Activity Continues: ASX Limited (ASX.AU) [ASX] remains a among the better listed exchanges globally, earnings fundamentals are...

Thomas J. Monaco

Alibaba – Virtually There

*Highlights of Investor Day: Alibaba Group (BABA.US/9988.HK) [Alibaba] held a virtual 2020 Investor Day, where its emphasis was on high quality...

Thomas J. Monaco

Upgrading Best Inc To Speculative BUY on Expectation of Express Sector Consolidation

What is rationale? What are catalysts? Why Best and not other potential targets? Price target?

Tracking Traffic

Ant Group Pre-IPO ESG Assessment: Seeing the Forest for the Trees

xxxx Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim...

Kyle Rudden

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China A-Share Strategy: Deregulation in QFII/RQFII Scheme to Boost up Foreign Fund Inflow

We believe foreign funds' China A-share positions will continue to rise and will reach 10% of A-share total market-cap in next 10 years.

Roger Xie

ASX Limited – Softening Trends Continue

*Weaker Futures Activity Continues: ASX Limited (ASX.AU) [ASX] remains a among the better listed exchanges globally, earnings fundamentals are...

Thomas J. Monaco

Alibaba – Virtually There

*Highlights of Investor Day: Alibaba Group (BABA.US/9988.HK) [Alibaba] held a virtual 2020 Investor Day, where its emphasis was on high quality...

Thomas J. Monaco

Upgrading Best Inc To Speculative BUY on Expectation of Express Sector Consolidation

What is rationale? What are catalysts? Why Best and not other potential targets? Price target?

Tracking Traffic

Ant Group Pre-IPO ESG Assessment: Seeing the Forest for the Trees

xxxx Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim...

Kyle Rudden