Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.</li>
<li>Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.</li>
<li>Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.</li>
</ul>


The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.
Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.
Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, there could be 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58:1" rel="noopener">CGN Power (1816 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy (1171 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-coal-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:383:1" rel="noopener">China Coal Energy (1898 HK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer (291 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (2202 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)</a> is higher than the other stocks and there could be covering on implementation day.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, there could be 3 changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March.

CGN Power (1816 HK), Yankuang Energy (1171 HK) and China Coal Energy (1898 HK) could replace Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), China Resources Beer (291 HK) and China Vanke (2202 HK). 
Short interest on China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) and Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) is higher than the other stocks and there could be covering on implementation day.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes as Big Moves Unfold

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 2nd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Hscei Etf, Bud Apac, CMB, Tencent, Wuxi Apptec, Wuxi Bio, Lenovo.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 2nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Hscei Etf, Bud Apac, CMB, Tencent, Wuxi Apptec, Wuxi Bio, Lenovo.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Hscei Etf, Bud Apac, CMB, Tencent, Wuxi Apptec, Wuxi Bio

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 2nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 2nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 2nd): Tencent

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 26th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 26th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Limited owns and operates the stock exchange, futures exchange, and their related clearing houses in Hong Kong.  The Company provides the trading platforms for a range of cash and derivatives products and the facilities for processing trades.

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HKEX (388 HK)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

We see the HSCEI 2024 div futures slightly underpriced with the potential for more upside. There are risks to the trade, mainly from the banks and...

Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes as Big Moves Unfold

There could be 3 changes for the FXI in March. Two changes were forecast much earlier while one is a very recent change. Short interest on Yankuang...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Hscei Etf, Bud Apac, CMB, Tencent, Wuxi Apptec, Wuxi Bio

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Hscei Etf, Bud Apac, CMB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 2nd): Tencent

We have analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link Reit

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 26th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Jd, Kuaishou, Link...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)