Equities. Commodities. Metals & Mining

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a> is set to see significant earnings upgrades driven surge in silver prices (40% EBITDA share), local currency weakness and benign costs.</li>
<li>Planning for major US$2-2.5b growth expenditure to double output over next 3=5 years.</li>
<li>Valuations: Entering a strong earnings upgrades cycle. Stock can re-rate despite trading at slight premium to historic averages. Stake sales by key holders is a risk.</li>
</ul>



Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) is set to see significant earnings upgrades driven surge in silver prices (40% EBITDA share), local currency weakness and benign costs.
Planning for major US$2-2.5b growth expenditure to double output over next 3=5 years.
Valuations: Entering a strong earnings upgrades cycle. Stock can re-rate despite trading at slight premium to historic averages. Stake sales by key holders is a risk.


Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> is looking to raise US$760m from selling some stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-zinc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8688:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)</a>.</li>
<li>Overall, while the deal would represent just 2.6% of the firm’s outstanding shares, the deal is a large one to digest at 41 days of the stock’s three month ADV.</li>
<li>In this note, we take an early look at the deal, and comment on the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) is looking to raise US$760m from selling some stake in Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN).
Overall, while the deal would represent just 2.6% of the firm’s outstanding shares, the deal is a large one to digest at 41 days of the stock’s three month ADV.
In this note, we take an early look at the deal, and comment on the deal dynamics.


Hindustan Zinc OFS Early Look - Due for a Correction, Large Selling Pressure Looming

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

Jubilant Agri and Consumer Products / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Separation of fertilizer division enables sharper valuation for adhesives, removing drag from losses and unlocking pure-play growth potential.</li>
<li>High growth with underpriced products; margin expansion likely as brand strength builds, closing gap with Pidilite and Jyoti Resins.</li>
<li>Once loss-making agri business now EBIT-positive; post-demerger focus may revive segment and surprise on valuations.</li>
</ul>


Separation of fertilizer division enables sharper valuation for adhesives, removing drag from losses and unlocking pure-play growth potential.
High growth with underpriced products; margin expansion likely as brand strength builds, closing gap with Pidilite and Jyoti Resins.
Once loss-making agri business now EBIT-positive; post-demerger focus may revive segment and surprise on valuations.


Event Driven: Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Demerger- Next Value Creator from the Bhartia Group?

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In today's uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.</li>
<li>In addition to considering today's dividend yields, we think it's also imperative to take into account companies' future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.</li>
<li>Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.</li>
</ul>


In today's uncertain scenario, cash is king. Moreover, the high US treasury yields, which had rendered a dividend yield strategy relatively unattractive, are beginning to decline again.
In addition to considering today's dividend yields, we think it's also imperative to take into account companies' future earnings potential to assess future dividend stability.
Screening companies with at least 6% forward dividend yield and 5% forecast EPS CAGR over next 2 years, we arrive at our basket of 23 dividend yielders, 13 from HK/China.


Asian Equities: Asia's Robust Dividend Yielders

India

Hindustan Zinc Limited specializes in the exploration, mining and smelting of zinc, lead and other non-ferrous metals.  The Company's products include zinc ore, lead zinc concentrate, zinc metal, lead metal, cadmium metal, silver metal and sulfuric acid.

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Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN)