External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and speciality shipments.</li><li>Despite lower shipments, revenue (down 20%/7% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimate by only 2%, led by an improved product mix (higher auto shipments).</li><li>LME Aluminium prices were down 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and speciality shipments.Despite lower shipments, revenue (down 20%/7% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimate by only 2%, led by an improved product mix (higher auto shipments).LME Aluminium prices were down 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Steel Q1FY24 Preview: For steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect margins to contract QoQ due to lower sales volume and elevated input coking coal consumption costs, offsetting higher realisations.</li><li>On a YoY basis, too, margins are expected to contract despite higher volumes YoY (on a low base) as HRC prices are now down by 15% YoY from the near peak of the last year.</li><li>We expect revenues to decline QoQ on account of lower sales which will offset the slightly higher realisations on a QoQ basis. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Steel Q1FY24 Preview: For steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect margins to contract QoQ due to lower sales volume and elevated input coking coal consumption costs, offsetting higher realisations.On a YoY basis, too, margins are expected to contract despite higher volumes YoY (on a low base) as HRC prices are now down by 15% YoY from the near peak of the last year.We expect revenues to decline QoQ on account of lower sales which will offset the slightly higher realisations on a QoQ basis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<div><ul><li>Consolidated Segmental EBITDA (down 19%YoY) recovered QoQ by 21%, a 4% beat vs. our estimate driven by better-than-expected EBITDA at Indian Aluminium and Copper operations.</li><li>Aluminium EBITDA grew by 32% QoQ on lower coal costs.</li><li>Copper EBITDA stood robust, up 10% QoQ, led by higher shipments (up 11% YoY) and better TC/RCs.</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Consolidated Segmental EBITDA (down 19%YoY) recovered QoQ by 21%, a 4% beat vs. our estimate driven by better-than-expected EBITDA at Indian Aluminium and Copper operations.Aluminium EBITDA grew by 32% QoQ on lower coal costs.Copper EBITDA stood robust, up 10% QoQ, led by higher shipments (up 11% YoY) and better TC/RCs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Recover; Macro Uncertainties Persist

<ul><li>Novelis’s numbers stood largely on expected lines.</li><li>EBITDA/t has recovered from the trough of $376/t in Q3FY23 to $431/t in Q4FY23 (5% beat) in line with the earlier management commentary of EBITDA/t touching +$400/t in Q4FY23.</li><li>Revenue (small beat by 2%) grew by 5% QoQ (below 9% YoY on the strong base of the last year), led by a recovery in shipments to 936kt (up 3% QoQ).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Novelis’s numbers stood largely on expected lines.EBITDA/t has recovered from the trough of $376/t in Q3FY23 to $431/t in Q4FY23 (5% beat) in line with the earlier management commentary of EBITDA/t touching +$400/t in Q4FY23.Revenue (small beat by 2%) grew by 5% QoQ (below 9% YoY on the strong base of the last year), led by a recovery in shipments to 936kt (up 3% QoQ).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis on Expected Lines

<ul><li>Tata Steel reported its provisional sales volumes for Q4FY23.</li><li>Its Indian operations sales stood at 5.15MT, up marginally by 0.5% YoY and a robust 9% QoQ.</li><li>Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tata Steel reported its provisional sales volumes for Q4FY23.Its Indian operations sales stood at 5.15MT, up marginally by 0.5% YoY and a robust 9% QoQ.Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis

Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and...

Axis Direct

Metals - Q1FY24 Earnings Preview

On a YoY basis, too, margins are expected to contract despite higher volumes YoY (on a low base) as HRC prices are now down by 15% YoY from the...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Recover; Macro Uncertainties Persist

Consolidated Segmental EBITDA (down 19%YoY) recovered QoQ by 21%, a 4% beat vs. our estimate driven by better-than-expected EBITDA at Indian...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis on Expected Lines

EBITDA/t has recovered from the trough of $376/t in Q3FY23 to $431/t in Q4FY23 (5% beat) in line with the earlier management commentary of EBITDA/t...

Axis Direct

Metals - Q4FY23 Earnings Preview

Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.

Axis Direct

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