Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

S&P Small Cap 600 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" </li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" 
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Marriott International / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.</li>
<li>Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.</li>
<li>The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.</li>
</ul>


While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.
Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.
The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.


Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

Asia consumer research, Investory

Shilpa Krishnan

Asia consumer research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts / Equity Bottom-Up

Does a good product make for a great stock or a lousy one? I won’t buy a stock for its product alone, but I will definitely personally vouch for the holiday product of Club Mahindra. This is the company that has managed to convince over 222,000 Indian families that they deserve a break from their hard work, 7 days a year, and pampers them at its resorts with great locations, spacious rooms, a smorgasbord of treats at the restaurant, spa, club facilities and the works. My non-Indian friends own timeshares at Marriott Vacations (VAC US) and Hilton Grand (HGV US). The comparisons intrigued me. MHRL’s member numbers are just 10-15% lower than those of its overseas peers, and with 50 resorts MHRL is comparable to HGV. But HGV has 2x MHRL’s room-inventory, 5x its revenues, 10x its profit, and 5x the market capitalization. Read on for why I think MHRL is not just another case of overestimating the discretionary consumption power of the Indian middle class.

Does a good product make for a great stock or a lousy one? I won’t buy a stock for its product alone, but I will definitely personally vouch for the holiday product of Club Mahindra. This is the company that has managed to convince over 222,000 Indian families that they deserve a break from their hard work, 7 days a year, and pampers them at its resorts with great locations, spacious rooms, a smorgasbord of treats at the restaurant, spa, club facilities and the works. My non-Indian friends own timeshares at Marriott Vacations (VAC US) and Hilton Grand (HGV US). The comparisons intrigued me. MHRL’s member numbers are just 10-15% lower than those of its overseas peers, and with 50 resorts MHRL is comparable to HGV. But HGV has 2x MHRL’s room-inventory, 5x its revenues, 10x its profit, and 5x the market capitalization. Read on for why I think MHRL is not just another case of overestimating the discretionary consumption power of the Indian middle class.

How Do You Make Money When (Others Are) On Vacation

United States

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. develops, markets, sells, and manager timeshare resorts. The Company markets and sells vacation ownership intervals, manages resorts located in leisure and urban destinations, and operates a points-based vacation club. Hilton Grand Vacations offers its services in North America, Europe and the Asia Pacific.

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Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV US)

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

Vermilion Research

Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

We are seeing encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites, including improvement within the Discretionary, Transports, and Materials...

Vermilion Research

How Do You Make Money When (Others Are) On Vacation

Does a good product make for a great stock or a lousy one? I won’t buy a stock for its product alone, but I will definitely personally vouch for...

Shilpa Krishnan

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