Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Janus Analysis

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li><strong>Decline in Li price far lower and quicker than anticipated</strong></li>
<li>Existing Li producers’ earnings will compress dramatically in time</li>
<li><strong>Initiate SELL Recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> </strong></li>
<li><strong>Initiate SELL Recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a></strong></li>
<li>China’s property investment up 10.5% yoy, with construction starts up 6.7%</li>
<li>On current growth trajectories, Chinese steel prod. could reach 1Bt pa by 2020</li>
<li> Indonesian Ni furore a temporary fluctuation </li>
<li>Ni market is in LT structural deficit, including primary and secondary supplies</li>
<li><strong>Initiate BUY Recommendation on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> </strong></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pensana-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2106:1" rel="noopener">Pensana Metals (PM8 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azumah-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1" rel="noopener">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausmex-mining-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11167:1" rel="noopener">Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bardoc-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4833:1" rel="noopener">Bardoc Gold (BDC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources Nl (MCR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexus-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15638:1" rel="noopener">Nexus Minerals (NXM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stavely-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20213:1" rel="noopener">Stavely Minerals (SVY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xanadu-mines-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1270:1" rel="noopener">Xanadu Mines (XAM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hillgrove-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5066:1" rel="noopener">Hillgrove Resources (HGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auroch-minerals-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18189:1" rel="noopener">Auroch Minerals Nl (AOU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/catalyst-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1" rel="noopener">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poseidon-nickel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12760:1" rel="noopener">Poseidon Nickel (POS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meteoric-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1747:1" rel="noopener">Meteoric Resources Nl (MEI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atrum-coal-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9553:1" rel="noopener">Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galena-mining" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28397:1" rel="noopener">Galena Mining (G1A AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingwest-resources" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28398:1" rel="noopener">Kingwest Resources (KWR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cardinal-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12256:1" rel="noopener">Cardinal Resources (CDV AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hot-chili-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11138:1" rel="noopener">Hot Chili Ltd (HCH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sihayo-gold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19935:1" rel="noopener">Sihayo Gold Ltd (SIH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amani-gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8659:1" rel="noopener">Amani Gold (ANL AU)</a> </li>
</ul>


Decline in Li price far lower and quicker than anticipated
Existing Li producers’ earnings will compress dramatically in time
Initiate SELL Recommendation on Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) 
Initiate SELL Recommendation on Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)
China’s property investment up 10.5% yoy, with construction starts up 6.7%
On current growth trajectories, Chinese steel prod. could reach 1Bt pa by 2020
 Indonesian Ni furore a temporary fluctuation 
Ni market is in LT structural deficit, including primary and secondary supplies
Initiate BUY Recommendation on Alkane Resources (ALK AU) 

Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU), Galaxy Resources (GXY AU), Alkane Resources (ALK AU), Fortescue Metals (FMG AU), Pensana Metals (PM8 AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Ausmex Mining Group (AMG AU), Bardoc Gold (BDC AU), Mincor Resources Nl (MCR AU), Nexus Minerals (NXM AU), Stavely Minerals (SVY AU), Xanadu Mines (XAM AU), Hillgrove Resources (HGO AU), Auroch Minerals Nl (AOU AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), Poseidon Nickel (POS AU), Meteoric Resources Nl (MEI AU), Atrum Coal Nl (ATU AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Galena Mining (G1A AU), Kingwest Resources (KWR AU), Cardinal Resources (CDV AU), Hot Chili Ltd (HCH AU), Sihayo Gold Ltd (SIH AU), Amani Gold (ANL AU) 


New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 08/11/19)

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

<div>In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.</div><ul>
<li>Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).</li>
<li>Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.</li>
<li>The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…</li>
</ul>

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.
Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).
Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.
The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…


Australia

Hillgrove Resources Limited is a mineral exploration company. The Company explores for and produces gold, copper, natural gas Silver, lead, and zinc.

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Hillgrove Resources (HGO AU)

New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 08/11/19)

Decline in Li price far lower and quicker than anticipated Existing Li producers’ earnings will compress dramatically in time Initiate SELL...

Gaius King

RBA Downbeat on Commodity Price Outlook

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further,...

Sam Ferraro

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