Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Indian Market (~$4 trillion) has now overtaken Hong Kong as the 4th most-valued stock market after the US, China, and Japan. </li>
<li>We recently concluded an exploratory trip to Patna, the capital, and also the largest city of the state of Bihar, Summarized thoughts on companies focused in this insight. </li>
<li>Multiple stocks covered in the Insight. The future of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/easy-trip-planners-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34149:1" rel="noopener">Easy Trip Planners (EASEMYTR IN)</a>, especially if it's banking on franchisee expansion, could go the other way around.</li>
</ul>


The Indian Market (~$4 trillion) has now overtaken Hong Kong as the 4th most-valued stock market after the US, China, and Japan. 
We recently concluded an exploratory trip to Patna, the capital, and also the largest city of the state of Bihar, Summarized thoughts on companies focused in this insight. 
Multiple stocks covered in the Insight. The future of Easy Trip Planners (EASEMYTR IN), especially if it's banking on franchisee expansion, could go the other way around.


[Week 14] Namaste India 🙏 | EASEMYTR IN | Easy Trip's Ghost Franchise?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

<ul>
<li>There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.</li>
<li>There are a lot of implementations this week, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.</li>
<li>There were big inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.</li>
</ul>


There were a lot of rebalance implementations in China on Friday, plus a few upcoming index changes that were announced during the week.
There are a lot of implementations this week, with KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 on Thursday and then others across a bunch of countries on Friday.
There were big inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) during the week taking units outstanding to a new high. ETF inflows continue even as the market drops.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).</li>
<li>Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 58.2% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m).
Since July, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

<ul>
<li>We are back with our regular weekly updates after taking an earnings break and a Diwali vacation. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-india-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32064:1" rel="noopener">Ishares Msci India Small-Cap (SMIN US)</a>  appears to be where the most market action is currently. We also maintain a long bias on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honasa-consumer-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36117:1" rel="noopener">Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN)</a> is the star of the week that is playing an innovative narrative that which street seems to like, but warrants attention. </li>
</ul>


We are back with our regular weekly updates after taking an earnings break and a Diwali vacation. 

Ishares Msci India Small-Cap (SMIN US)  appears to be where the most market action is currently. We also maintain a long bias on the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX). 

Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) is the star of the week that is playing an innovative narrative that which street seems to like, but warrants attention. 


[Week 11] Namaste India 🙏 | Honasa's Innovation or Innovative Narrative?

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)

[Week 14] Namaste India 🙏 | EASEMYTR IN | Easy Trip's Ghost Franchise?

Indian stock market surpasses Hong Kong to become the 4th most valuable market. Insight on Easy Trip Planners suggests franchisee expansion may...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

[Week 11] Namaste India 🙏 | Honasa's Innovation or Innovative Narrative?

Weekly updates are back after a break, with focus on iShares MSCI India Small-Cap and NIFTY Index. Honasa Consumer's innovative narrative is...

Pranav Bhavsar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Week 14] Namaste India 🙏 | EASEMYTR IN | Easy Trip's Ghost Franchise?

​Indian stock market surpasses Hong Kong to become the 4th most valuable market. Insight on Easy Trip Planners suggests franchisee expansion may...

Pranav Bhavsar

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, TW Div+, ASX200, NZX50, Mom30, Top10EW, MVW, Rakuten Bank

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 58% Turnover & Strong Momentum

There could be 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index resulting in 1-way turnover of 58.2% and in a 1-way trade of INR 20bn (US$240m). Adds...

Brian Freitas

[Week 11] Namaste India 🙏 | Honasa's Innovation or Innovative Narrative?

​Weekly updates are back after a break, with focus on iShares MSCI India Small-Cap and NIFTY Index. Honasa Consumer's innovative narrative is...

Pranav Bhavsar

Indian stock market surpasses Hong Kong to become the 4th most valuable market. Insight on Easy Trip Planners suggests franchisee expansion may...

Weekly updates are back after a break, with focus on iShares MSCI India Small-Cap and NIFTY Index. Honasa Consumer's innovative narrative is...