Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Capital Markets

Close on the heels of IPOs by subscription meal-kit companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24175" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24175:1">Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. (APRN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26000" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26000:1">HelloFresh AG (HFG GR)</a> comes the planned IPO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26023" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26023:1">Stitch Fix Inc (SFIX US)</a>, a subscription apparel retailer based in San Francisco. The company has filed to raise as much as US$200 mn through an offering on NASDAQ; at the upper end of the proposed US$18-20 per share price range, the company would enjoy market capitalization of over US$1.9 bn. We believe SFIX will probably face two of the same challenges as the meal-kit companies, namely relatively narrow product appeal and a potential threat from larger players in e-commerce and traditional clothing retail. Both APRN and, to a lesser extent, HFG, have been dogged by these two concerns since they launched their IPOs.But one problem SFIX doesn't face is a lack of profits: unlike the two recently-listed meal-kit companies, SFIX already generates Operating Profits and Free Cash Flow, and has done so for some time (although core margins are declining). The company's business model is asset-light and appears to be readily scalable. Because SFIX is already profitable, investors don't need to wonder when or how the company will reach profitability. Instead, they merely need to estimate the company's growth potential and what they are willing to pay for that growth. In our view, SFIX's IPO process is worth watching, even for non-US investors. The company's highly personalized approach to consumers, which combines data science and a deft human touch, appears to be a differentiating feature and may show a path forward for other niche retailers struggling to compete successfully against the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)</a>.  In this note we will a) describe SFIX's business model; b) analyze its recent financial performance; c) discuss some of the risks it faces; and, d) attempt to estimate its fair value versus peers. We will also provide regular updates before the company's shares begin trading, probably by the end of November.

Close on the heels of IPOs by subscription meal-kit companies Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. (APRN US) and HelloFresh AG (HFG GR) comes the planned IPO for Stitch Fix Inc (SFIX US), a subscription apparel retailer based in San Francisco. The company has filed to raise as much as US$200 mn through an offering on NASDAQ; at the upper end of the proposed US$18-20 per share price range, the company would enjoy market capitalization of over US$1.9 bn. We believe SFIX will probably face two of the same challenges as the meal-kit companies, namely relatively narrow product appeal and a potential threat from larger players in e-commerce and traditional clothing retail. Both APRN and, to a lesser extent, HFG, have been dogged by these two concerns since they launched their IPOs.But one problem SFIX doesn't face is a lack of profits: unlike the two recently-listed meal-kit companies, SFIX already generates Operating Profits and Free Cash Flow, and has done so for some time (although core margins are declining). The company's business model is asset-light and appears to be readily scalable. Because SFIX is already profitable, investors don't need to wonder when or how the company will reach profitability. Instead, they merely need to estimate the company's growth potential and what they are willing to pay for that growth. In our view, SFIX's IPO process is worth watching, even for non-US investors. The company's highly personalized approach to consumers, which combines data science and a deft human touch, appears to be a differentiating feature and may show a path forward for other niche retailers struggling to compete successfully against the likes of Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US).  In this note we will a) describe SFIX's business model; b) analyze its recent financial performance; c) discuss some of the risks it faces; and, d) attempt to estimate its fair value versus peers. We will also provide regular updates before the company's shares begin trading, probably by the end of November.

Stitch Fix IPO Preview: Not Just Another Retail Subscription Service -- This One's Profitable!

Germany

HelloFresh SE provides online food services. The Company offers a subscription service in which customers receive a weekly box of recipes and meal ideas. HelloFresh also provides ice packs, plastic packaging, meat packing, insulation materials, and other related products. HelloFresh serves customers worldwide.

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HelloFresh (HFG GR)

Stitch Fix IPO Preview: Not Just Another Retail Subscription Service -- This One's Profitable!

Close on the heels of IPOs by subscription meal-kit companies Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. (APRN US) and HelloFresh AG (HFG GR) comes the planned IPO...

Daniel Hellberg

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